Why is Morgan Dollar numismatic value dropping?

I personally think common Morgans are still severely overpriced.

 

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Coins like the 1923-D that I bought or commons in high grade condition (i.e., 1924 and 1927 Saints) will trade with BOTH bullion and numismatic value. That's why the premium often overshoots to steep values as it discounts further rises in bullion and numismatic value.

Obviously, higher-priced Morgans are less affected by the price of silver because they sell at 30-40x the price per ounce. But lower-priced Morgans (which can affect higher-priced ones to some extent) that sell for 5-10x can be affected by silver moves.

 

Doug, if I did an R-squared or some other regression analysis I would find a link between those 2 data series. It would NOT be a perfect correlation but they do track over various time periods.

It's going to depend on the amount of bullion content in a numismatic or quasi-numismatic coin. A 1927-D Saint doesn't care about the price of gold, a 1924 or 1923-D Saint does.

Coin prices lag bullion on both the upside and downside. Then they catch up -- and usually overshoot. That's been the pattern since the 1970's.

 

Across the board ?

How much do you think they need to fall ? 20% ? or 50% ?

 

Doug, I agree entirely with your post. I think the reason why we haven't seen price moves play out like you imply they should is because we've ALWAYS either had a coin bubble or a big move in gold in progress...OR...we've been burning off the excess from one or the other.

At least since the 1970's. I think the coin hobby was less volatile before the 1970's. The underlying metals prices were static and numismatic values reflected gradually increasing supply and gradually increasing demand.

 

Hello everyone!! Here's my 2 cents worth on this subject. I could be wrong, but the more collectors submit Morgans to the TPG's and have them graded, the more the population is exposed. Therefore, moving the values lower. The count of graded coins affects the price.

 

I just buy them (Morgans) cuz they are just so awesome and they bring me great joy and happiness! If I lose, I lose...but, I'll always be happy owning them. Even my 81 y/o father's interest has perked up on coins; he even watched Mike on ShopCSN TV and asked me who that slick-talking guy was!! I just had to laugh.

 

I think this is exactly right! All of them are readily available; even the 1893-S is out there for purchase (just saw and F12 for $3950), as someone else had replied. People are paying more for the 2019-S ASE ERP! Im one short of a registry set of CC morgans and they have all been easy to get. The only one I really had to spend any real time trying to get was the 1880 Rev of 78 in something I could afford; I ended up buying a raw coin and had it graded. Granted the 1879, 1889, 1892, 1893 are the priciest and I don't own in MS; all the rest I have in MS. People are trying to cash in on the morgans they bought for "peanuts" during the big sell off/GSA days. Anyway...that's my thought! Cheers!

 

This is exactly what is happening. There will always be buyers for coins in the low end (<$500) and the high end (>$10,000). Dealers are having a tough time selling coins in the $500-10,000 price range to collectors, though some exceptions exist (mainly early US type and varieties, key dates). The prices are too high for the majority of collectors who are interested in the coins, and these coins are usually not targeted by those who operate in the highest strata. Dealers have told me that the majority of people who are interested in these coins want them at a steep discount to resell (usually to either help pay bills or provide funds to be able to afford the coins they want).

If I was still an active dealer, I would avoid these coins like the plague. Very few people are looking for a generic MS-64 1864 three cent or MS-65 1877 Half Dollar (for example). These coins take forever to move at retail prices (unless they have great eye appeal), and large amounts of money are tied up. I wonder what percentage of buyers for these coins on Heritage or Great Collections are collectors or if they are mostly dealers.

With the number of collectors having to stretch to afford the coins they want, raw and “details” coins are nearly impossible to sell at reasonable prices. Ebay (auction, not BIN as much) is a ready market for damaged stuff though.

This isn’t sustainable, and we are due for a major correction.



Other dynamics that will shape the future of the coin market are the student loan crisis and the cultural shift from buying “things” to buying “experiences.” An increasing number of millennials are pursuing a more “minimalist” lifestyle when it comes to stuff and housing. I’m somewhat in the same boat, but coins will always be with me.

 

Yes, and there are plenty of ungraded Morgans in those 2x2 white squares....but does moving them from ungraded to graded over time...slowly....REALLY impact prices ?

I'm not sure. Maybe a slight depressing factor over time, but not a major impact, IMO.

 

Nicer dates VS. lesser dates...all averages out over long run.

 

Interesting.....

Don't the coins HAVE to end up in the public's hands at some point ? If dealers buy at FUN or on HA because they know they can sell to another dealer....then doesn't THAT dealer have to have a buyer from the public, because you can't just have dealers flipping it to another dealer at higher prices, can you ?

Or maybe a slow, steady bleed ?

 

heritage is where many dealers offload stagnant coins, usually those that are low-end or generic for the grade. Maybe they take a loss. Or maybe they prefer to sit on the coins for years.

 

Yes coins blown out at heritage then some wholesaler may buy a bunch can get below bid then process starts over.

many of these generic or stagnant big ticket coins. If CAC rich collectors will bid them up.

 

Buy Morgans only if you like them enough to build a collection. Stick to Eagles if you’re hoping for a price appreciation.

 

I don't see too many coins going for way below the HA estimates that are usually provided.

I don't track lots of series, so maybe you and others with more experience can talk about Morgans and other lower-denomination coins....but as an example, I don't see MS 65 common Saints (like 1924's) which I always hear dealers don't want to carry/sell...going for only 10-15% above melt. I see them always 20-25% over and then more as you move into rarer grades.

 

So you're saying that coins are sold for big losses so that some buyer (dealer) getting them cheap can make a profit on higher resales ?

How long can that go on, with "weak hands" taking losses, if the public (strong hands) don't buy ?

I'm confused, how/where do the CAC afficionados come in ? They're bidding on non-CAC stuff that is just dirt cheap to CAC and non-CAC coins for the type ?

 

I think the Morgan series could be one that suffers from oversupply because there are so many of them and I am not sure that today's investors want to use the lower-grade commons as a way to invest in silver bullion.

I think more people -- but not lots more -- do that with Saint-Gaudens commons in lower-grades (I just bought a 1915-S MS63 instead of an American Eagle gold coin or Buffalo).

 

That post was out of left field and not worth a second thought about that part.