Published Price Guides

So, what was the difference? Did the coin go down in value between when you bought it and when you sold it, or was it just that the original seller was more patient than you were?

 

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I suppose the original seller was more patient than I was. I listed it in an auction and was satisfied with the final bid.

 

Going back to published guides, I check the prices listed in coin magazines. I figure even if the prices quoted are 3 to 5 months old, there can't be a big difference since the magazine hit the shelf. What I don't understand is the difference in price of a coin when it jumps from a XF grade to an AU50 grade. Sometimes the difference is as much as three times the price between the two grades. Why is that?

 

I am usually willing sell a coin at a show less than my online eBay store due to fees and paypal. I sit on material until I get my price. If material not selling I stop or reduce buying and lower any offers. I can easily live on my pension, retirement, and equity investment income.

Many players like deer in headlights when it comes to selling. Not a buyer over 60-70 pct what can sell it for especially in this stagnant market / lots downside. A lot of them buried in big ticket coins they will lose money on big time. One fellow offering me some slabbed coins at my table at show told me he expected TPG MV - I told him perhaps he should open a shop lol.

Price-guides meaningless unless u can sell at that.

 

I believe you'd find many of prominent price guides are based upon fantasy, rather than fact.

I'm at a point in life where I realize my probable future years remaining, and I wanted to show my son who will be the future estate owner, some facts about coins/references. The subject of coin values was selected to show how believed ridiculous prominent publications may be.

I chose the CDN "RARE COIN MARKET REVIEW" for CACed coins, and turned to certified St. Gaudens Double Eagles having a CAC bean. A "top tier" TPG certified coin having virtually an ounce of "fine" Gold, only has a stated value, for a buyer, of $30 difference between XF40 and MS62. ????

Please don't use values other than average completed public sales to determine probable value.

JMHO

 

So, what's wrong with the Greysheet these days, and what changed? I certainly accept that all price guides are inherently flawed if you're using them to make decisions about individual coin buys, because they assume that all coins are "average," but I don't understand what made the Greysheet any different.

 

Many double eagle dates especially common dates are essentially bullion until they reach numismatic grades. It's hard for there to be any price spread in grades when the 62 is basically melt

 

It's certainly not perfect and not every change has been right, but using real world sales isn't guess work and some of the changes have been based off of dealer buy prices. The dealer market isn't the end all be all of prices

 

I constantly follow open fair-market sales for the commodities of which I've an interest.

It's becoming difficult to locate correctly TPG/CAC graded Gold coins, but I probably locate/acquire an average of one/week, with 2 currently ordered.

Interesting! I believe you're stating that 62/70 (i.e. ~90%) Sheldon scale "top-tier" TPG/CACed certified coins have a virtual melt market value.

An advanced sold search of auctions, lists no sales of "top-tier" TPG certified CACed Gold coins in the range you've suggested.

I believe it'd be difficult to prove your stated hypothesis.

Time will tell!

JMHO

 

I wasn't referring to top tier especially not CAC gold. Low MS in many Saint dates are basically bullion, Gem Saints with CAC completely different story and huge premiums over non CAC. I was just responding to the reference of the lack of price spread in low grades for many of them such as 62s and lower. Key dates are obviously a different story

 

I don't uses printed price guides but do look at auction results (usually Great Collections, Heritage, PGCS, ...) for certified coins. Since there's usually a big range of sale prices within a given grade I look at many of them relative to the others and try to make sense for why one sold lower and one higher. Usually, exceptional strike and eye appeal brings the highest price and I make a decision to buy the coin I'm interested at a price comparable to the features of a similar one sold at auction. I may decide to pass on a coin if I see that there are better examples out there that I'd rather wait on down the road.

For raw coins I try to determine what I think the grade is and then look at slabbed auction prices for similar coins graded several points lower. Usually, if a raw coin looks MS I won't bid higher than an AU 58 price unless it is an absolute gem. As many of us know, buying raw coins online can be risky; pictures can be deceiving. I usually do most of my business with trusted sellers; ones I've done business with before and was satisfied.

 

Just a thought. If so many double eagles, Saints etc are melted down, doesn't that mean that in the long run those remaining logically become rarer, whatever their grade? And the rarer they are, the more you have to pay.

I remember a story, don't know if it's true, of a guy who had one of only 6 known examples of some rare stamp, and who bought one of the other five, took out his lighter and burnt it. Now, he said, mine is only one of five and has immediately become so much more valuable...

 

In many cases it’s conditional rarity, i.e. it’s easy to find a specific coin in VF/XF, but much harder to find it in AU/MS. If you can give an example, I am pretty sure someone who knows the series will be able to comment.

 

2w

Losing 13% of the market with one quick flick of a lighter doesn't seem overly bright to me.

 

Well, if you're a member of any of these "electronic dealer markets," can't you just extract that information yourself? It seems to me like what CDN is effectively saying is that those old data sources aren't particularly relevant anymore. I don't see the problem when everyone with an internet connection has access to auction data from Heritage, Stacks Bowers, etc. and retail prices from eBay and the like.

 

It still uses them, it just isn't the exclusive source anymore. Realistically those prices aren't going to be higher than real sale prices anyways unless there's a lot of conditions to the offer

Now there is truth that low end stuff at auction can hurt the price of things, but that's going to happen anyways and for most things price guides are just supposed to be a ballpark anyways and theres the separate CAC one to try and combat that as well.

Yep