Doug, can the spike in the census for Superb Gems (>MS67) be explained in part or wholly by mass grading of modern bullion coins ?
You presume incorrectly, those merely happen to be the most noticeable numbers because of the huge percentage increases. The spike in higher grades is across the board. When you look through the entire book you find out that is absolutely not the case. And that the spike in higher grades definitely applies to the classics.
Believe whatever you like. But when the pop numbers of higher grades across the board increase by substantial percentages in a very short period of time, and when one views coin after coin that would have been graded a 63 last year, being graded a 65 this year - it becomes pretty dang hard to believe there has NOT been a drastic and sudden change in grading standards. And that is exactly what happened in 2004 ! And I was far from being the only one to notice this happening. Pretty much everybody who knows coins noticing it happening when it happened ! And it was certainly not coincidence that only 3 years later in 2007 CAC was born. The very existence of CAC was the result of that change !
I agree with one caveat: the widespread acceptance of the Internet and internet venues for coins made knowledge about TPGs far greater to non-coin enthusiasts as well as a "must" for the borderline enthusiasts. The TPGs started grading coins in the 1980's but to casual coin collectors or those who dropped out (like me), that wasn't common knowledge until the early-2000's when I read about them online. And I know because I have many friends who are infrequent collectors (the "bug" comes and goes) who also now know about TPGs but were clearly in the dark 15-20 years ago. Remember, at that time the TPGs had only been around for about a decade and the stench of the 1989-90 Coin Blowup was still fresh in anybody who read about it. Interesting observation, thanks. Then it is your expert and veteran opinion that PCGS and NGC coins from inception (1986 or so) through AT LEAST 2000 (maybe right up to 2004) were consistent and pretty tight ? The obsession with "OGH" and older slabs is not necessary.....slabs from the 1990's are "graded tight" too ??
I thought I made it pretty clear in previous posts beyond count. YES - the TPGs graded coins correctly and accurately up until the end of 2003 ! Now does that mean they got every single one correct ? No, it doesn't, there are always exceptions. But if you search old posts and articles from back then you'll find where I myself, and just about everybody else, readily agreed that the TPGs were right the grades they assigned at least 85% of the time. The OHG (old green holder) was used until 1998. And what do you think caused the, as you called it, obsession, with older slabs ? It was because basically anybody and everybody who knew anything at all knew all too well what had happened. That the TPGs had greatly loosened grading standards after 2003. By 2005 all but a handful of the coins in older slabs had already been picked over, cracked out, and resubmitted to get the higher grades based on the current more lenient grading standards ! There were millions and millions of coins in those older slabs dating from 2003 and back. But today, you really have to look to find them. Oh sure you might find some now and then, but if you do odds are extremely high that the coins inside were either overgraded at the time, or already maxed out on grade at the time - and so they were passed over as candidates for the crackout game. Why the very phrase itself, crackout game, where do ya think that came from ? The phrase was coined because what I'm describing was so extremely common and well known. And if you take the time to find them, you'll even find posts from back then on the NGC and PCGS forums both, as well as this one, confirming all of this. Also, by 2005 articles written by the greats of our hobby were bemoaning the loosening of TPG grading standards that had become pervasive. And those articles not only continued through later years - they increased in number. None of what I have been writing about in this thread is new, or even news for that matter. It's almost ancient history - now. But there are still those who are unaware of it so from time to time I still write about it like I have for 15 years now.
Got it.... Got it..... Actually, and I think I have a printout/link to all the PCGS holders used (not sure about NGC ones).....there were like 10-15 different holders used from inception (1986) up to 2000 or so. And I think only 1 or 2 of those, maybe 3, were green and/or referred to now as "OGH." I'll have to check. But I am SURE that the OLDEST holders were not even green....the print type was very pixelated and the color was a very pale blue as I recall. But your essential point is spot-on regarding older holders in general, yes. Maybe CT has a Thread detailing all PCGS and NGC holders ever used. I'll try and Search for them. Got it.... Got it.... Got it....and yeah, I do find such posts, though the explanations of what happened aren't as good as what you've posted here, Doug. Yup, and I appreciate it. You shed new light even though I was aware of the basics. You filled in some gaps.
Just remember advice is worth what you pay for it. He has his opinions about grading and many times he's essentially on an island essentially of his own that ignores a lot of things and he self admits he hasn't been active in the market for a decade or so. There's countless threads and pages of people pointing it all out but it's too exhausting to do every time
Don't I know it !! I think that's why when looking at more expensive coins that many people get inertia or lose interest in the hobby between grading questions and counterfeit flooding. It's easy to scare yourself that you're making a mistake. A lack of knowledge can kill you here...but too MUCH knowledge can do the same !!
WoW(!) Forget the holder, what a coin! Personally, I think the OYH are even more conservatively graded than the OGH. Y=Yellow. About the same time frame but not nearly as many of them out there. While I have seen overgraded coins even in OGH slabs, I have never seen an overgrade in an OYH.