Why coin sales flat

Please tell your nephew that pre-82 pennies are not Grade A copper. They are an alloy, and as such, are only worth 25% of the price of Grade A copper because it costs reclamation centers money to extract the copper.

Chris

 

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I have, but he does what he does. He manages a Comic Book shop, so sees a lot of change. That's where he disposes of his $.50 CRH discards....

 

Lots of good points here. Let me offer a potpouri of information:

(1) Demographics are a headwind, but probably overstated. Internet has facilitated lots of activity. But counterfeiters of bullion and numismatics are a big threat. Need more federal efforts with STEEP penalties for creating and/or knowingly selling counterfeits.

(2) PCGS 3000: Doug has posted about this few times. I would note that the HISTORY of that index is basically 2 big bubbles: 1970-1980, and then then 1982-1989. You never had U.S. coins post-1970 during normal periods.

First, you had the tumult of the end of fixed exchange rates and the hyper-volatility of the 1970's. Then you had the bubble of the 1980's accelerated by the innovation of TPGs which was revolutionary compared to prior eras.

So...you had 2 hyper periods. The price increases were incredible....a 20-fold increase in the 1970's and then a 8-fold increase in the 1980's. It often takes DECADES to burn off the excesses of bubbles that go up like that (check the history of South Sea Bubble, Tulipmania, Florida Real Estate, 1920's U.S. Stocks, 1980's Japanese Stocks, 1970's Gold & Silver, etc.).

The point is: we've never had a NORMALIZED environment for U.S. coins but we could be approaching it soon. Long-term, U.S. Coins and the PCGS 3000 index seem to be going up about 2-3% a year so a long-term trendline would intersect at current levels. In other words, U.S. coins are no longer expensive -- not cheap -- but no longer expensive. We simply shot WAY AHEAD twice in a compressed time frame and never allowed the market and time to work as they normally would.



(3) Billionaires Buying: Not sure about that article in The Red Book (is it available away from the book ? Link ?) but we've known about a few guys like Simpson buying. It's basically just influenced high-end niche coins like Saints, as far as I can tell.

Now....if you had some millenial or youngish tech or social media founder announce that he went to a big national coin convention or has put tens of millions into U.S. (or World) coins and eventually will put 5% or 10% of his $5 billion net worth into said asset class...you could have a stampede (think Kidder-Peabody and Merrill Lynch in 1988).

 

He manages a comic book shop? Say no more!!!

Chris

 

Complaining in an integral part of this hobby.

Really though a lot of the stores that have gone under are the ones you would see at the show with a lot of details coins being sold as straight graded or AUs as MS or just didn’t adapt to the new times taking advantage of technology. Many stores that have adapted or that have better inventory and don’t just sit on the same coins for decades have figured out a way to do just fine.

It's really not even a coin shop issue anyways, all retail is losing stores if they don't adapt enough due to the online market that now exists. If someone is running a retail store selling easily sourced things they need to be competitive with online prices at the very least

 

Simpson goes after the best of the best, he's not competition for 99.9 percent of us if not more. His coins and patterns are basically a yearly salary or more and way out of the budge of any of us. Same with Tryant, though if you get to the next long beach show there's going to be a display of that absurdly nice $10 gold. http://www.longbeachexpo.com/news/2019/157

I wish I was competition for their level

 

Couldn't find that article or piece from The Red Book that Garrett wrote, but found this from an article of his from CoinWeek:

"....There are dozens and dozens of examples of coins that now sell for 100 or more times the price they could have sold for 40 years ago. Most of this is based on the extreme premium the market now places on quality."

 

Many brick & mortar shops do have websites.

 

Thing is. Storefront shopkeepers have to adapt. I market commercial construction materials. Things easily sourced on the web. But I offer additional services that a web supplier cannot offer. I would think a coin shop could find ways to be innovative enough to make himself indispensable to his customer base. Just takes some creative thinking is all.

 

It seems possible (a beginning), the newer catalogues are all showing declines in many areas. There must be some increases, but I tired searching for increased values. I compared the 47th ed. Standard Catalog, with the older 2015 15th ed. of Collecting World Coins. Perhaps that is why Iam buying!! The material from Garrett, is in the 5th Ed. of the Mega Red, pages 18-23.

 

That’s the first step to staying relevant (and in business). The next may be posting on auction sites...
Today’s world is changing and changing fast. If any business is going to survive the business must change with it.
Also see baseball’s reply to my post above.

 

World coins super deal vs US. I am in process of blowing out most of my US (overpriced, falling market) for world.

In World, no greysheet, no holder or sticker game / nice.

 

Most of the coin shops I'm aware of that maintain websites are also active on Ebay. The two sort of go hand in hand.

 

World coins are hot and popular. I'm so glad I moved away from US coins and am entirely engrossed with world coins. I'm having so much fun collecting world coins and learning more about whats popular, etc.

Ive added a lot of thai collectors/dealers and my goodness, that market is hustling and bustling! I never new how big their market for their own coins are!

 

It is certainly not boring. I have found through patient analyses, really good bargains! Overseas shipments seem quite safe (non-Muslim) as I mentioned before India(n) youngsters are showing great interest (they used to keep spare coins in their "tin boxes"). Many now are excited when they and their families sift through these family boxes! Yes Thailand, and some Vietnam are hot!
Gary in Washington

 

And India is a huge place and the surrounding countries. Giant future market.

 

I don't even own one. I use the recliner in the living room. I keep the TV on 24/7 and the only time it is off is when there is a power outage or Comcast equipment is on the fritz.

Chris

 

Doubtful considering younger generations are much more educated.