US Coin Market Stagnant

I see a lack of information as being a problem there. There are only so many coins that people who don't do this for a living -- or do it as their sole leisurely pursuit -- can be knowledgeable about.

There are co$$$t limitations and time limitations, too.

Could I see myself buying 1 or 2 or 3 unique world coins if I knew what I was doing ? Sure...but my knowledge base compared to Saints, Morgans, and even modern day commemoratives and bullion is much much less.

 

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Maybe happened to you, but I think for most people -- The General Public -- FALLING PRICES are a killer, particularly when it is a LONG BEAR MARKET.

A crash is bad, but if it's over in 2 years like the 1987 Stock Market Crash, folks are more upset they didn't buy low. A grinding bear market...that takes years...decades...just wears people out. You can't make money on the upside AND you don't ever get to a bottom (or when it does happen, you're long gone).

I'm going to a coin show today and will be keenly observing how many dealers/tables have foreign coins.

 

But in the future, HOW MANY Americans (forget foreigners) will be buying those coins is the $64,000 Question.

There will ALWAYS be a market for Saints, Morgans, Walking, Liberty, and Franklins.

 

This coin is such a specific type -- 1806 XF40 Draped Bust Half Dollar, pointed 6, no stems -- that the number of buyers has to be more limited than simply a generic Saint or Morgan or Liberty or Walker from a particular year with or without CAC.

If you're a baseball fan, you've certainly heard of Bill Madden's One Dumb Owner Theory regarding overpaying of FA's. Well, if you had 2 or 3 strong bidders in April 2018 but only 1 in October 2018......

 

Really ?

But for the average collector, how can they be expected to have sufficient knowledge to make smart purchases there unless they do some serious DD ?

 

And the market for foreign/ancient coins has been rising...

 

Americans are much less into foreign coins AND stocks/bonds (traditionally) even when Europeans and other foreigners were into our tangible and intangible assets.

Americans tend to be more parochial....having never had our country destroyed by war, we're more trusting of our institutions and currency.

 

Traditionally, yes. But things are dynamically changing

 

It’s harder to manipulate the index that was established well over a decade ago than the algorithm to decide which sale results are deemed relevant.

 

Nice evade of the point. PCGS hides relevant sales records that don’t show the story they want to tell.

 

100 percent false again.

 

Good try. The evidence suggests otherwise

 

Nope despite what you wish so you could try and blast them the evidence says the exact opposite.

It's all there in auction prices realized. Nothing they can do when an outside source locks down their prices so you have to go to their website to see them.

 

Are you guys saying that PCGS is hiding even WORSE sales numbers that would indicate the PCGS 3000 has fallen even more than the headline number would indicate ?

I think one of the problems here is what many of us complain about with all the different slabbed versions of modern coins and commemoratives: it's tough to have a price guide where lots of coins claim or actually are very unique and may (or may not) command a premium.

Transparent markets demand perfect information (or close to it) and perfectly functioning markets. When you have illiquidity because someone has a Stem or No Stem or VAM-6 or VAM-4 or other imperfections, it's impossible to compare prices across different time frames.

Instead of being like the stock market -- where every share of stock is pretty much equal to the others transacted before it -- what you have in the coin market is quintessential tangible differentiation, making it closer to niche segments of the bond or derivatives market. Or even real estate.

 

They aren't hiding anything. It's all in auction prices realized. Some venues made the decision a couple years ago not to give the PCGS tool access to their sales price so you have to go to their site to see them. I get why they do that with the thought it could get a new customer as you drive traffic to your site, but obviously it's less convenient not being able to see them in one place.

 

Outstanding post, Geek !

 

With ancient Chinese coins, the rising prices keeps putting the coins I want increasingly out of reach, or I just get less coin for my dollar.

But my collection is worth multiples of what I put into it, so that’s nice. But I am not in a selling mood