My analysis of the PCGS 3000 Index

Have multiple indices....if not 50 names in an index, then no more than 100.

GD, the DJIA only catches about 35% of the broad stock market universe; the S&P 500 about 70%. But those are good enough.

I think with coins, where the index is a marketing AND communicative tool, it's not a priority that it reflect the entire coin universe or even a majority of it...just the names that reflect the most interest....buys and sells...Google hits...Ebay/HA/Stacks searches.....dealer inquiries....LCS inquiries....Coin show inquiries...etc.

Off the top of my head....and I admit I don't know as much about the entire coin hobby as you guys....but off the top of my head, you'd want to include Saints, Liberty DEs, Barbers, Franklins, Lincoln Pennys, Buffalo Nickels, Draped Busts, Peace Dollars, Indian Heads, and Walking Liberty's.

That is 10 different coins where you can have anywhere from 10-40 entries depending on how many you want from each coin type (and again, if you have only a few Saints or whatever, you can include an average of different mints or grades to broaden it a bit).

I'm sure I left out a few key coins, again, feel free to let me know here. But it's alot less unwieldly than dealing with 3,000. That's for the Russell 3000 index !!

 

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It may already be in the PCGS 3,000 subindices, but just a tighter, more liquid, more concentrated index of popular coins or coin types.

 

At this point in time the PCGS 3000 is the best index for me to track the market. I do look at its sub indexes as well like Classic Commems.

I also track indexes Kitco has for gold and silver.

Doing these gives me a big picture overview.

 

Does anybody know what specific coins are part of the:

• Mint State Rare Coin Index
• Key Dates and Rarities Index
• Mint State Type Coin

I have a general idea, but these sub-indices (and others) comprise the PCGS 3000; I'd like to know what is in THEM.

https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/mint-state-type

 

Last 10 Years for PCGS 3000 and sub-indices:

PCGS 3000.......................... -18%

Gold Spot............................ Flat

Generic Gold........................ -28%

Mint State Rare Gold Coin...... -23%

Proof Gold Coin..................... +4%

Mint State Type Coin.............. -18%

Proof Type Coin.......................-25%

Silver Spot............................ -48%

Morgan & Peace Dollar............. -20%

Silver & Gold Commemorative... -40%

20th Century Coin Index .......... -20%

Key Dates & Rarities ................. -5 %

 

Are you saying you think the bear market DECLINES are over -- or are you actually turning bullish on U.S. coins ?

Inquiring minds want to know !!

Seriously, while I agree that the extent of the decline is probably over -- for now -- long-term demographics may be a headwind which will need to be overcome.

Will future collectors want to collect Franklins, SLQs, Walkers, Nickels, Dimes, Pennies -- all the things that your and mine generations collected starting in our Whitman/Dansco books ?

2nd longest, GD.....that PCGS 3000 Index has a 14 year decline from the 1980 ATH to the low around 1994 (when rising gold finally lifted coins).

 

Thanks....I'm seeing all the coins in the PCGS 3000 index from your link, but where do they show you what is in the sub-indices when you click on them ?

I'm not seeing that when I click on them individually.

 

For example, I can guarantee you that there will be no Indian cents in the Morgan and Peace index. Just look at what the sub-index is - the 3000 is just all of them together.

 

Right, but what years and mintmarks of Morgans and what grade -- those are important.

Must be a link somewhere, or maybe I'll contact PCGS.

 

I literally already posted the link in this very thread.

There's a bunch of common date low ms coins in the index and a ton of stuff worth less than 50 dollars. It's a terrible index

 

In the link that Doug posted above, the "PCGS coin number" corresponds to a unique date and mintmark. They don't make it easy, but you can find what coin they are representing. The lack of transparency is one of the reasons that many people find this "index" to be a bit of hocus-pocus.

 

Well, it's better than nothing, I guess.

I'll go back and look for your link and re-hit GD's. I see all the coins in the 3000 Index, but unless all the sub-indices coins are all-in-a-row, having the 3000 coins that way won't tell me which coins belong in the 11 sub-indices.

 

The big one is basically just the little ones put together. They're all dumb anyways, 30 dollar coins and bullion get mixed in with 5 and 6 figure coins. They all make it look like the bottom is falling out of everything whether it's from poor bullion performance or a couple high end coins performing poorly, yet record prices are being set all the time. Someone needs to actually do the history for the specific coin/date/mm they are interested in to get a real picture and not a bunch of noise

 

No, I recall that....but does that mean you are BULLISH on them price-wise going forward ?

Just because the group may have bottomed, doesn't mean that they are poised to turn up. Unlike stocks, coins do not create wealth so they need a catalyst.

Do you see one ?

 

The bottom is in !! Reminds me of the newsletter days of the 1980's when stock market gurus would call the market.

Right, but with demographics still a major headwind, what counters it ?

Who is going to be buying those coins that many of us collected in the 1950's, 1960's, and 1970's even if that sub-index is down 85% from the 1989 peak ?

What prevents that sector of the coin hobby (there are other sectors doing better price-wise and interest-wise) from becoming Stamp Collecting, The Sequel ?

Very perceptive, and normally I'd agree 100%.

Let me play Devil's Advocate and ask.... do the rules of a market apply to coins ? Coins are so subject to emotion and hyper-volatility with tremendous booms-and-busts that maybe you can't apply normal bull-and-bear market thinking and cycle analysis to them ? You don't have long bull markets that are slow-and-steady and get people into the sector but you do have long pronounced bubble-bursting bear markets that often bring big financial losses or at least a depressing atmosphere.

100% agreed....but I still wonder FROM WHERE do we see the change on all those coins that we grew up with. Who are the new buyers ?

Those of you who have bought ancients and foreign coins supplied U.S. buying power to a global market, but I highly doubt non-U.S. buyers will have interest in U.S. coins with the exception of a few rare types and/or Morgans & Saints for precious metal or numismatic value.

Still, I am glad you are bullish GDJMSP. Maybe lots of people got into coins and will segue into the classics during Covid-19. We should see if it's true with online auction registrations, bidders, and increased activity (maybe) at coin shows when they open up again.