Disappointing results: HA, GreatColl, Leu

I remember bidding on a MS65 commem half that sold for 3× the previous selling price for this type. Nothing special about it, no toning really. Then the next time came up - about a month later, and nearly identical, it sold for aabout 30% of the previous one.
A couple of guys must have thought it was rare and didn't have patience.

 

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No, they were not. The market valued the coins more than you bid. So your bids were NOT market price.

 

Thanks all for the feedback and your opinions, @TheFinn fairly accurately described my approach, i don’t want to be the guy, who pays 11x the value just because he/she wants this coin now. Sure, would buy it at any price if i had infinite resources, but this is not the case, well I will continue the hunt!!

 

Wrong, looked at 4-5 similar, almost exact coins, that closed in the last 1-2 years...

 

I had the same luck with all of my HA bids .

 

If you're mostly looking to vent your frustration, that's fine. Have at it. If you're also hoping for useful feedback that might improve your results down the line, it would help if you would give an example of a coin you failed to win and the "4-5 similar, almost exact coins" you compared it to.

Phil Davis

 

Thanks Phil, i like your sense of humor and extremely quick response early Saturday morning, given 100% of your lifetime you spent with coins - i am sure you are frustrated with me being frustrated
Examples i was talking about were Athena Tetradrachms New Style
P.S. why Volodya? To honor, V. Lenin, V.Putin? Why???

 

I think you're the first person on this list who asked about "Volodya" although I've definitely been asked in other non-coin venues. It's actually in honor of Vladimer Mayakovsky, the Russian Futurist poet and graphic artist. In a galaxy far far away where I scratched on wax tablets with a stylus, I adopted it as a pen-name; it was an easy segue into using it as an on-line moniker as well. If I had it to do again, I would sign-up here using my name.

Centering, strike and metal quality affect the price of all ancient coins; probably you factor those into your calculations. Beyond that though, more than for some other series which are fairly uniform, New Style tetradrachms have an enormous variation in the quality of the engraving that can affect their price dramatically, even on coins with the same technical grade. The quality and visual interest of the symbols is another significant factor; even the presence or absence of the month numeral on the amphora can make a difference. The earliest issues have a modest tendency towards higher prices; the latest issues struck under Sulla have always brought a substantial premium (although less now than they did some years back.) That's why seeing the coin(s) you lost and your proposed "comps" is really a must in trying to figure out why your bids were surpassed.

 

This is a fabulous write up and explanation - thank you so much Phil, this makes complete sense and I will be more thoughtful in my approach...
As far as Mayakovsky, I am still surprised why you chose him he was at the forefront of Soviet Propaganda Machine that was responsible for atrocities only comparable to atrocities committed by Third Reich, maybe even surpassing it in a lot of regards...
I would think it will be Vonnegut,or some solid Mexican artists: Riviera,Orozco... but, I guess, to each its own
Once again, thank you for a wonderful write up and honest feedback!

 

I'll also add that estimates are not equal to value. Some auction houses notoriously under-estimate coins, some have strong estimates, and some make mistakes. I've overpaid below the estimate for some coins and, on others, gotten a steal at 20x the estimate.

Ancient coins need to be assessed on an individual basis and just because a coin is similar to another does not mean the value/price will be similar.

 

@Svarog I was shopping for a good Athenian new style for many months and the market seemed dry. Then lately a number of very good examples came up.. maybe there was some some pent up demand for the type.
I do feel your pain and sympathize with your dismal auction performance of late. Did you find you were at least the underbidder on a good number of these coins?

 

I wouldn't want to be the sucker who paid 11x market for a coin either... and I didn't.

In my case the estimate was nonsense, the underbidder set the sale price and I set the market.

 

Fo Athenians I was about $100 short on almost all the ones i bid(3) and 2K short on another one

 

To me paying 2x-3x is irrational decision - i ll have a very hard time explaining to myself why i paid 2x for the coin that another person scooped up few months ago for much less, i would feel fooled unless the item is so unique, like paintings of Riviera, Frida, Miro or Dali, I wouldn’t be able to justify the purchase... I might be too pragmatic, but going back to prior post about Alternative investments, buying something with understanding that if, God forbid, i need to dispose this coin quickly i ll lose a fortune, I cannot with a clear mind justify the purchase “now on impulse”

 

I also observed that the prices for the nicer material in these recent auctions have been very strong. I understand that there are no price guides for ancient coins, but at the same time some types have appeared at auction hundreds of times in the recent past and one can use that data to get a good baseline for how much similar coins have sold for. Yes, any one coin can be an outlier for whatever reason, but 60 coins represents a trend. All things considered, I believe the high-end material appears to have some strong buyers right now.

 

My win rate is maybe 1 out of 20.

 

It stands to reason. You are going to see more wealthy Millenial-types who have Big $$$ and bid for QUALITY and can pay up.

They're going to go for the 66's and 67's and not the 63's and 64's.

Pricier stuff appeals to other WEALTHY buyers so you have added liquidity there.

There are limits that most of us have in going for expensive bills/coins....but buying pricier stuff means a greater probability of price appreciation (skews to higher quality stuff) and ease of being able to sell if you need to do so in the future (or your heirs do).

 

When the Dow takes a nose dive you will be able to get more of what you are after as today's buyers cash out and sellers queue up. Stick to your guns and wait it out.

 

Since the subject was Ancient Coins, let me offer a thought (though it is NOT an area of expertise): the folks bidding in that specific niche probably are very savvy, and have lots of $$$. More so than the folks I see bidding on Saints, Morgans, Silver and Gold Certs, and other 20th Century bills.

If you are going up against other savvy buyers....and if you all know that a rare coin in a low-pop grade is now available....and if you know that it might take MONTHS or YEARS for a similar one to come up for sale.....then you are going to pay a HUGE PREMIUM to the FMV as listed in Krause or past sales.

It's basic supply & demand.

 

It would take a pronounced and lengthy decline in the DJIA to affect coin/bill prices.