The Argument for Cash

Eggs may not work well as long-lasting mediums of exchange, except when made by Fabergé maybe. But yes, I understand the point about cash registers. It's just that I have heard this "no electricity, cannot open right now" before but have (where I live, knock on wood, etc.) never experienced a longer outage ...

I do like the idea that with cash you can make payments without being tracked. But to some extent this concept would also work in a world without cash - see the blockchain based crypto currencies. (Yes, I know they have their faults, from manipulability if that is a proper word to high energy consumption, but the point is, there are alternatives.

One thing that I find concerning when it comes to cash: How do we get it? Some of us may actually get paid that way, but most will withdraw it. And with low to zero interest rates, banks charge extra for all kinds of services. So why not charge, say, 2 percent whenever a customer takes his or her own money, in cash, out of an account?

Christian

 

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If crypto became the "norm" for buying things without traceability, then what would happen to Refunds ?

I guess, if you buy it, it's yours.

At some point crypto would get tracked. As the IRS now requires with US based accounts. Otherwise companies could skimp on taxes (any crypto payments could sidestep earnings results), etc.

So I think many people have this fallacy in relation to bitcoin being totally untraceable. I think as one learns about it more they'll realize that cryptos are not anonymous, but rather pseudonymous.

They already have means of tracking already stolen crypto.

 

Do you believe humanity has the knowledge and skill to recreate things that have already been created ? Or would it just degrade nonstop ?

The days without Internet are not disasterous.
An EMP would instantaneously short circuit all electronic devices that are exposed.
But even then so, stuff outside of the "EMP blast" would survive.
If the entire world was EMP'd at the same time then we, as humans, still have the skill and knowledge to rebuild up to where we were in very short order.

The surprising thing is, solar panels would not be affected by an EMP strike. The Charge Controller would though. But mine is in an aluminum cabinet, which surprisingly something as simple as aluminum foil and plastic bags would protect something from a large EMP.

So, even after a large EMP attack, I may still have electricity without even really preparing for it.

So if there was an emminent EMP attack, I'd pull out the heavy duty aluminum foil and plastic bags and start to wrap everything.

I wonder if an Aluminum body Ford F-150 constitutes a good Faraday cage? Or even an airliner in the air which is made from aluminum (and not more modern carbon composites).
http://www.futurescience.com/emp/emp-protection.html

for all the penny collectors, make sure you put all your electronics in your large containers of pennies, as copper also shields from EMP.

 

In your 'entire world' scenario we definitely would survive as the human race is resilient. However, it would be after huge numbers of loss of life. Without computer logistics to facilitate the trucking of food and medical supplies (RX's) those in the big cities would begin to perish rather quickly. Large cities like NYC, LA, Detroit, etc are totally consumer based. They don't produce anything that would aid in survival.

Pandemonium would ensue rather quickly and survival of the fittest would come down to bands of marauders ransacking whoever has any supplies they decide to take. The ease of travel now would stop instantaneously. Therefore, escaping to more safe, more remote locations would be virtually impossible for millions of people.

A very ugly situation for mankind. Very ugly.

 

You didn't have to go and write that... Don't give them any ideas!
I suspect you are right about that, though.

 

I have to use the "entire world" scenario
because for the opinion of devastated areas to be supported it has to not include the ability of nonaffected locations to simply fly/ship in equipment, etc.

of course, crypto would be totally useless.

 

Many of the "prepper" documents such as this state
https://www.askaprepper.com/vehicles-emp-survival/
"The survivors of a major EMP event are going to have to adjust to doing without a lot of technology that we take for granted right now. Most electronics will be fried beyond repair and it will be years – in some cases decades – before anyone is able to start making replacements."

Thus I assume that means a worldwide EMP attack to prevent shipping from unaffected location. Of course if not a "global EMP thing" then manufacturing/shipping stuff from unaffected locations shouldn't take decades (plural).

In the Detroit area, people would just pull out their classic cars and go about driving around. Imagine the Uber rates you could charge. In certain neighborhoods older cars outnumber newer cars, so they would have working automobiles. (remember too, you don't have to have a functional dash, speedometer or blinkers to drive; you need need basic functionality for mobility - press the gas/brake and go). In Cuba they have bunches of old cars https://thenewswheel.com/why-does-cuba-have-so-many-classic-cars/

Of course, they may have to fix the alternator initially.

Nowadays, they also wrap houses etc with the aluminum insulation, which I think in that previous link I gave listed it as something to use for your house/garage.

but preppers don't want to hear these things ...

ooh, and make sure you don't have an electronic lock on your safe, unless it's one of those EMP shielded ones.

forgot to add ... in one such EMP test with cars & trucks up to 2002
http://www.futurescience.com/emp/vehicles.html
"Automobiles were subjected to EMP environments under both engine turned off and engine turned on conditions. No effects were subsequently observed in those automobiles that were not turned on during EMP exposure. The most serious effect observed on running automobiles was that the motors in three cars stopped at field strengths of approximately 30 kV/m or above. In an actual EMP exposure, these vehicles would glide to a stop and require the driver to restart them. Electronics in the dashboard of one automobile were damaged and required repair. Other effects were relatively minor. Twenty-five automobiles exhibited malfunctions that could be considered only a nuisance (e.g., blinking dashboard lights) and did not require driver intervention to correct. Eight of the 37 cars tested did not exhibit any anomalous response."

 

We're climbing a really huge pyramid here -- all today's technology is based on many decades of accelerating progress. "Starting over", even with existing knowledge, would be a big challenge.

And remember, an ever-increasing majority of "existing knowledge" is itself in electronic format. I no longer buy programming reference books, because the tools and frameworks I use evolve so quickly that I'd need to replace them more than once a year, and the amount of information each needs to contain keeps growing.

If the Internet and existing storage gets catastrophically knocked out, we'll find that we've been living in the very darkest of Dark Ages -- not because they seem dark while we're in them, but because we can't see anything when we look back into them. A vast majority of conversations, correspondence, knowledge, will be inaccessible, probably forever.

Yeah, but it's got at least two big antennas leading out of the cabinet to your roof. Hopefully there's some protection; at the very least, you should protect against lightning, and no EMP effect is going to be anywhere near the power of a direct lightning stroke.

 

not like libraries and national archives don't exist and still have the paper versions.

The question is, does one need *everything* that's ever been cataloged up to today's specifications?
Or simply the initial basic requirements to get stuff done?

Are we going to forgot forever how to make concrete ?
Is experience & knowledge going to be lost forever?
or will we have to reinvent fire ?
the "pyramid" is as large as you want to speculate it to be.

Just because you use electronic copies of books doesn't mean a paper copy does not exists somewhere, anywhere; or maybe someone else printed it out?

I continually get the Oracle electronic books when I take classes. But I also order a paper version for our organization for other people to use a reference because I'm not going to give them my password for the electronic version.


My house and stuff are all grounded at two locations. But we were talking about EMP, not a lighting strike. As a lighting strike on the solar panel may just melt the small cables that go from the panel to the MPPT controller. of course it may start a fire, irregardless if it hit the solar panel which is not on the roof (there's flag poles, light poles, power poles in close vicinity which are better targets too). And since a lighting strike won't disable the world's internet and such, I'd just order another one.

Either way, at least my cash won't be affected.

 

Well, maybe -- but how many libraries still have non-electronic catalogs?

Here's a good short treatment of the problem, from 1961.

Hey, I've read Lucifer's Hammer, with the SF fan guy who saves civilization with his hoard of nerd books, and I've got my own hoard. Art of Electronics (hands-down the best electronics text in existence, period), several books on how common mechanisms work, building lab equipment from the basics, and of course the CRC Bible.

If things go way downhill, my best chance for survival would be going to the local warlord and explaining to him that I know how to make things like alcohol and guncotton.

But bootstrapping your way back up to 14nm chip foundries? That's going to take a long, long time. And that means less storage, less memory, less compute power, and less of all the things that those enable.

 

I believe they have this knowledge, but I do not believe the necessary resources are available within any country. Most people believe military power will be the deciding factor, but I believe it will be health care/medical needs. Anyone with a moderately modern prescription that is necessary to maintain your life will die, As the dead overwhelm the population, disease will go back to bubonic plague days ( some say 70% death rate , most of us think it was eliminated, but there is usually cases where rodents survive. The National forest 55 miles away has endemic plague there. 2-3 people get it yearly trying to take the sick squirrel to the vet, Strong antibiotics are needed to treat the kindness. Heart disease, Diabetics, Cancer patients, not to mention PTSD in all population, etc. etc. The death total from the subsequent problems will far outnumber the warfare , zombies, and wild men with guns deaths.

Corgis and other dogs will eat their masters IMO, Jim

 

yes, the "catalogs" may be entirely electronic for quick searches. At least the one's up front. The local library has a encyclopedia printout of the catalog - probably incomplete/outdated but better than nothing if you *require* to search that way, not the "index card library" we've known from the past.

But if not having access to electronic catalogs is going to stop someone from searching around, well, that's a different problem entirely then I guess they should go back to their cave and scratch some flints together, after they figure out what a flint is and can accidentally find a couple.

what is "a long, long time" ?

Don't forget, the equipment will still be there. You just have to recreate the electronics.

we understand about how to improve creating smaller circuitry, it's not going to have to be reinvented from scratch over time, but the knowledge is there with the engineers, It will take some time but probably not what "preppers" envision with total dismantlement of everything.

All the equipment in front of you isn't going to disappear in a flash of dust.

I think it would be a world "mad dash" to "rebuild" everything, as the first one to have it is going to reap $$ the rewards. They'll won't have to "recreate" as they've already created it so they know where they are going.

Plus, when you look at all the exceptions of EMP related to it's intensity levels .. I don't think it's going to disrupt totally everything, plus it won't be global. But all depends upon how one looks up data, interprets it based upon their current notions, etc. If it's not global, it might just be a moot disruption. The blackout of 2003 is prime example of loss of the electrical grid for a couple weeks in a modern society.

 

Probably with other goods with high values.

In China, a popular bribe is by sending incredibly expensive tea cakes. We’re talking tea valued at tens of thousands of USD per cake.

Even more secure than cash because it’s less of a traceable cash transaction and more of an ephemeral item.

 

zombies and corgis running rampant.

now that's a problem.
@CoinCorgi

 

That's the whole problem. We need advanced electronics to run the factories making advanced electronics.

Disconnected spare parts wouldn't be affected by EMP, but the tendency is to move toward just-in-time manufacturing and service, where you don't keep a lot of spares on hand. After all, carrying inventory costs money, and if you know you can order what you need and get it in a day or two, you'll build your business processes on that assumption.

Modern chip manufacture is unimaginably complex and delicate. Building a new plant can cost tens of billions of dollars. Repairing a plant that's been blown out by EMP wouldn't be a simple matter of poking around with a multitester and replacing blown fuses. It might well be cheaper to bulldoze it and start over -- except that, in the wake of a global catastrophe, nobody would have the resources to make that happen, either.

We've bootstrapped ourselves to a point where we have devices that might as well be magic. Even the SF of my childhood couldn't imagine a supercomputer that slips into your pocket. Building these enchanted devices doesn't take a wizard, though; it takes an intact global economy. Destroy that, and the magic fails.

 

Many world powers for various reason have move very advanced equipment such as uranium enrichment centrifuges and assembly plants well underground whereas the US and allies seem to be very confident of ground level safety, except possibly some remains of the old US-USSR threat structures. Some of the scientific bases in Antarctica or Australia /New Zealand might be the most advanced after " The Big One".
Stack Antibiotics and dry medications instead of gold/silver

 

Ok Doug I plead guilty But I would still loan you some BP medication if it happens!!

Jim