Featured Can you define artificial toning ?

I'm curious, when you play chess and its clear you are going to lose, do you just flip the board over in anger?

Bob Campbell has a pretty significant numismatic resume, perhaps his ability to recognize the value in rainbow toned coins is something you should respect rather than attempt to diminish by propagandizing.

So if the drumbeat started in 1994, does that mean the fad is almost 25 years strong?

 

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25 years isn't even HALF my time as a serious numismatist. Still, simple chemistry tells me the toned Morgans existed when I started, in 1963. All I am suggesting is those who initially dismissed them were the ones who were right all along.

At least they bear no responsibility for all the fakery that has resulted. You, as a fan of this garbage, do.

 

So your definition of a fad is anything less than half of your total years as a numismatist?

 

Make ya' a deal, I'll take this garbage seriously the day you take the modern commems of the 1990's seriously. After all, they have the same history going for them. Cripes, ordinary ASE's make BOTH look like spring chickens.

 

I like modern commems but that doesn’t mean they aren’t widgets. The mintages are just too high, as are there populations in ultra high grade plastic.

And I don’t understand what they have to do with toners or fads.

 

Yes, but what you are describing is a stable market with normal fluctuations. Kurt is saying that at some point soon, rainbow toned coins will cease to drive a premium price in the marketplace.

Btw, I bought rainbow toned coins from Anaconda which was a full retail dealer in toned coins in 2006-08 and I did not take a bath on those coins when I sold them in 2012. And the market has dropped that much from 2012 to present. I'm not disputing that the prices were highest in 2007, just that they haven't collapsed since then.

 

Not to be a troublemaker, but might that explain the rest of the bear market in coins, too?

 

Absolutely.

 

Yes, correctomundo! But it's MORE than that - MUCH more. It is the concurrent explosion of SUPPLY online around that exact same time, or more accurately, shortly thereafter.

As a trained economist, I find the rapid expansion of supply of a supposedly rare thing deeply troubling, and you should too.

Al the coin doctors have is the "Bart Simpson Defense" - "I didn't do it, nobody saw me do it, you can't prove anything."

The fact that even ONE neon purple or blue ASE exists in TPGS plastic is a scandal that SHOULD warn everyone away, but hasn't. "Oopsie" is a lame excuse.

 

That’s a lie, there has been no explosion of supply any time in the last 20 years. And I’m not a trained economist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

 

That, sir, is THE #1 lie of all time.

 

Prove it!

Prove that the amount of rainbow toned coinage has not just increased, but exploded.

 

this is fun...PROVE IT!!!

 

How about we compare the number of rainbow toned MS65 1881-S Morgan Dollars as a percentage of total. We will look at the current percentage on E-Bay, then compare it to the % we find in the Heritage Auction archives.

Before we do this, we need to define what level of increase qualifies as an explosion.

Thoughts?

 

“Heritage”. Rejected as not representative of the market as a whole. Suggested alternative metric. EBay. Full out EBay compared to nothing.

 

It’s plain logic. Before Bob Campbell started “pimping and pumping” them, no one ever saw them. The base is essentially zero.

 

Heritage is probably the best representative of the market. They sold toned coins going back decades.

 

Except on the COVER of magazines!!!!!!

 

Since everyone went into crickets mode after I suggested a way to prove it, I guess I will just post my results.

E-Bay Current Listings:

1) 1881-S Morgan Dollar MS65 = 634
2) 1881-S Morgan Dollar MS65 Rainbow Toning = 61

9.6% of the current 1881-S Morgan Dollars MS65 have rainbow toning.

Heritage Auction Archives: I will list the number with rainbow toning per each page of 200 coins in the archives.

Page 1: 34
Page 2: 45
Page 3: 48
Page 4: 33
Page 5: 43
Page 6: 37
Page 7: 36
Page 8: 20 (2007 coincidentally)
Page 9: 37
Page 10: 29
Page 11: 28
Page 12: 45
Page 13: 22 (about 3/4 down, we reached 1999 with no photos)

Using the rounded number of 2600 sold by Heritage, there were 457 coins with rainbow toning.

17.6% of the 1881-S Morgan Dollars auctioned by Heritage had rainbow toning.

The number per 200 sold was never below 10% and never above 25%. Based on this example, there is absolutely no evidence to support the claim that the number of rainbow toned coins in the market is EXPLODING.