1982-D Washington Commem 50C condition rarity 68+ question and die history

Can you guys comment on this article by David Hall (PCGS), especially the last paragraph.

[FONT=arial,helvetica][FONT=arial,helvetica]Modern Commemoratives: The New Hot Market

[FONT=arial,helvetica]David Hall - December 3, 2002 [/FONT]Proof 1997-W Jackie Robinson $5 gold is currently undervalued. [FONT=arial,helvetica] Reprinted with permission from David Hall's Inside View issue #195.
Commemorative coins have always been very popular with collectors. Like all areas of the coin market, commemoratives have their hot and cold periods. Right now, modern, i.e. 1982 to date commemoratives, are hot (and the 1892 to 1954 silver issues are also doing well). In this issue of the Inside View we'll take a look at the red hot modern commemorative market.

Commemoratives - The Classic Era​

There were 144 different silver commemoratives minted between 1892 and 1954. There was one quarter, one dollar, and 142 different commemorative half dollars. These 144 issues comprise what's now referred to as the silver commemorative market. There were also thirteen different gold commemoratives issued between 1903 and 1926, including nine gold dollars, two $2 1/2 gold pieces, and two huge $50 gold "slugs."
Silver commemoratives have been one of the coin market's most popular areas since the 1930s. Gold commemoratives of the classic era have only been modestly popular. Even after commemorative production was stopped in 1954, silver commems remained one of the market's mainstays.

Commemoratives - The Modern Era​

In 1982, the U.S. Mint struck its first commemorative in 28 years, the George Washington silver half dollar. Thus began the modern commemorative era that continues today. Since 1982, there have been a total of 165 commemorative issues. There have been fifteen circulation strike and fifteen Proof silver half dollars. There have been forty-seven circulation strike and forty-three Proof silver dollars. There have been nineteen circulation strike and nineteen Proof $5 gold commemoratives, and two circulation strike and five $10 gold commemoratives.
In the past few years, several market developments have increased collector focus on modern commemoratives. First, the Mint's launch of the Statehood Quarter program has caused a tremendous increase in coin collecting with the general public. After beginning with Statehood Quarters, many new collectors have moved on to modern commemorative coins. The second important development was the rise of Internet coin trading. Modern commems are visually appealing and available in very high grades. They are a natural for the Internet and have become a favorite of Internet coin "newbies."
Finally, PCGS grading and the PCGS Set Registry program have added a lot of fuel to the modem commemorative fire. The bottom line is that this market is really hot and has tremendous momentum and a great future.

PCGS Grading and the Set Registry​

PCGS grading has had a very positive impact on the modern commem market. Many thousands of modern commemoratives are submitted every month to PCGS. The submitters are mostly dealers who specialize in modem commems. They're looking for the MS69 and PR69DCAM grades. These ultra high grades are very desirable to modern commem buyers and the availability of coins in ultra high grades has added significantly to collector demand.
The PCGS Set Registry is also driving demand and prices for modem commemoratives. Collectors "register" their sets on the PCGS web site and then compete with each other to see who has the best set. This collecting competition is not only fun, it's very serious. The PCGS Set Registry has created tremendous demand for the highest grades and the rarest issues.

Modern Commemorative Strategy​

Modem commemoratives are fun and exciting. They also have tremendous upside potential. Here's the strategy for maximum fun and profit:

1. Build sets. The best way to participate in this market is to build complete sets. Modem commems are collected by metal and/or method of manufacture. So the sets are either the silver halves and dollars, or the gold $5 and $10 issues. And the sets are put together as either circulation strikes, Proofs, or both. Any combination is fine!
2. Focus on the ultra grades. Buy coins graded MS69 or PR69DCAM by PCGS. Coins graded less than that are basically submitter mistakes. Buy the ultra grades exclusively. If you want to chase the ultimate MS70 and PR70DCAM grades and participate in the PCGS Set Registry competition, that's okay too. Just realize that the 70 grades are very pricey.
3. Buy PCGS coins exclusively. PCGS is the grading standard for the rare coin market. Modern commems graded by PCGS have the highest demand and are worth the most. Don't settle for second best.

The Modern Commemorative Market's Best Bets​

​

I love the potential of all modern commemoratives. However, like all coin series, some issues are rarer and more desirable than others. Here's the rather lengthy list of the modem commemorative market's "best bets." I highly recommend the purchase of these coins in MS69 and PR69DCAM grades. I've listed the current price in those grades from the PCGS Online Price Guide. Note that PCGS grading is critical. Coins graded by other grading services are graded by less conservative standards and are not worth the prices listed.
Circulation Strikes:
1982-D Washington half dollar ($2,150).
This is the one modern commemorative that is extremely difficult to locate in MS69 condition. It is the only condition rarity in the silver commemorative market.
[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

Anyone who would blindly take David Hall's recommendation on modern coins is not properly considering the source and how his income is directly tied to submitters and slab collectors. It is the very same reason, in my opinion, why the PCGS price guides are so out of whack on these issues.

That said, and not being a close follower of these issues, it is my impression that the 82-D halves were particularly poor coins as-struck from a condition perspective, so there is some truth to what DH says at least in the last paragraph.

Listen, collect what you want and what makes you happy, but don't be fooled by the game that PCGS and their biggest customers, the modern coin submitters, are playing...Mike

 

I guess I'm too late. GMarguli said it better than I could.

I've never bothered to cherry pick these because most look all the same; dull, lifeless, and poorly struck. I've never had acces to enough quantity to find nice examples. It was the same way with Ikes for many years. I didn't even know there were any gems so didn't waste my time looking for them. My favorite modern cherrypicks are where there is a huge range in quality and the coins are heavily skewed to the low end. Coins like a '79-D cent for example. This coin comes well made but almost every example is badly marked up. You can find clean ones but only with a lot of searching. '69 quarters have everything wrong with them. They are weakly struck from poor dies on horrid planchets. The coins were mauled before leaving the mint. I look for these as well but my standards are quite low or I'd never find a keeper.

 

Great perspective guys, Thanks for sharing. I won't be spending $600 on a PCGS-MS69 example real soon, but I will be paying closer attention to the ones I encounter

 

They (PCGS) inflate their price guide in hopes that people who don't know any better with think their coins will be worth big bucks if they have PCGS slab them. PCGS is just trying to make money with exagerated claims.
That is one reason the only slabbed coins I own are NGC. Even if PCGS slabbed coins generally trade for more $.

 

Might I suggest that you take a look at as many copies as you posssibly can in raw state in hopes of finding a 67 or 68 and not have to pay the "slab premium"? It seems to me that you should be able to get just as nice of an example for a fraction of the price, even if you have it slabbed yourself. Respectfully...Mike

 

p.s. To wit, ask Clad how may of his coins he buys already in slabs.

 

/amen

I never understand why, when the average grade of a coin is apparently 68, people are willing to pay huge amounts of money for a 69 or 70. Especially since you'd never be able to justify that kind of money if it's not in a slab saying so. I come to same conclusion as you in that case... it becomes the plastic, not the coin, that you're paying for at that point.

If you can find some moron willing to pay $600 for a $10 coin in a piece of plastic, more power to you... I think it's a little unethical to part fools from their money but if they're happy and you're happy with the transaction, I suppose it's OK... however I'm certaintly not going to pay $600 for a $10 coin lol...

 

Generally, I think the PCGS Price Guide is wishful thinking on the part of the dealers who contribute to it. I only use it when I have no other reference available and will usually knock 30% to 40% off it to come up with a real retail price.

For this coin the PCGS Price Guide is way off in MS68. They list it at $70, but this is an $18-$25 coin. The guide lists $600 in MS69 and that is closer to the market price for these coins. They've been selling for $525-$575 recently. I believe they went as low as around $300 at one point, but have come back up.

This is an issue which is not going to see a ton of MS69s. The coins are frequently plagued with milk spots and come with a lot of contact marks. Personally, I would not pay a premium for almost all modern commemoratives in a slab. It's just too easy to get a raw one that will grade the same with some searching. However, this coin is a tough coin to find in MS68 and MS69 and if I wanted one, it'd probably be easier to buy one slabbed. I've submitted many examples of this coin and never made an MS69 and only made a handful of MS68s. Late last year I looked thru an original box of 100 of them. I picked one for submission and it graded MS68. Most would have graded <MS66. I don't anticipate the population for MS69s exploding any time soon.

 

It's this kind of think that has me slapping my head, wondering why people still believe in PCGS's reputation... all TPGs are crooks, it's just a matter of degree... just some are better at getting away with it than others. The only difference between a company like PCGS and say a company like SGS is the myth that their reputation somehow makes them more impartial when they put their opinion on a slab rather than a company that doesn't bother to pretend that. It's the difference between telling a lie that almost everyone will believe and telling a lie few people will. It's still a lie, either way.

It's sounds like a cliche to say "buy the coin, not the slab" but it's a cliche for a reason. Based on populations you stand a really good chance of a 68 or even a 69 by buying the coin in the Mint's plastic rather than some TPGs, and if you can sucker someone into paying huge amounts of money for it after it goes into some TPG's plastic without you conciense bothering you, go for it I guess. I won't be paying that... I got one of these for $10 and as far as I'm concerned that's precisely what it's worth.

 

Thanks Greg for your thoughts, your insight into this market is appreciated.

 

I think you have a good point. However, in a market, perception IS reality.

Furthermore, to suggest that someone like SGS is on-par in terms of consistency would be incorrect in my opinion. That's not addressing at all the different standard that they employ, and if you will recall a few posts I made on the gold dollar thread, it is not the standard they use, but the consistency of how that standard that is applied that is important.

While I think a large part of the value that PCGS (and NGC) coins have in the marketplace is marketing-induced, to suggest that PCGS/NGC are less consistent than SGS, NTC, and others would be a mistake.

All that said, I agree 100% with your last paragraph, and that was the point I was trying to make to the OP, but I also recognize the rights of other to value and pay for slabs if they so choose. Just do it with your eyes open, that's all.

Respectfully...Mike

 

I always hate when people say "perception is reality." It's not, reality is reality. Or it should be... I concede the point that in a free market it's what people believe something is worth that ultimately determines what it's worth. The problem is when the belief is placed into something rediculous... like the belief that any one person or campany's opinion is worth more than anyone else's.

SGS is very consistent. They consistently overgrade. I'm sure whoever runs SGS thinks that if people are dumb enough to pay for a coin in plastic with a company's grade marked on it, why shouldn't they be able to get in on the action? In that regard I see them as no different than a company like PCGS. The only difference is the top tier graders have a reputation to hide behind... if SGS could get as many people to believe that their opinion is worth something as the top tiers did, they'd be no different. Like you said, for better or worse, it's the perception that a company is more reliable that makes it so in the grading world. Pardon me for not buying into it... I don't care how consistent a company is with their opinions, they're still just opinions. Just because more people agree with it doesn't make it any better, at least not in the sense of having any monetary value attatched to it.

I recognize that people have the right to spend their money on whatever they choose... people use to pay huge amounts of money for rare beanie babies, until the fad died out and people realized there was nothing intrisicly valuable about them. The TPG plastic is a longer lived fad but I bleieve if enough people came to the realization that there's nothing about a piece of plastic with someone's grading opinion that makes it a sincge cent more valuable than the coin inside without the plastic the TPGs would go the way of the beanie babies.

Promise will try to cut back on ranting against TPGs lol... but it's this kind of thing that most annoys me about them. Top tiers might not be as blatant about ripping people off as companies like SGS but I don't see a con-man who can fool people into willingly giving him millions of dollars as any better than someone who steals $20 at a time from old ladies' purses. Just because someone's more sucessful at ripping people off doesn't make them any less of a crook as far as I'm concerned. If anything, that makes them a lot worse.

 

I agree with everything you wrote except about SGS being consistent. I have not seen it in the coins that I've examined in-hand.

That said, perception is reality. Perception -- right or wrong -- is what drives prices, plain and simple. You can (and have) argued that the perception is incorrect, and I agree with you, but it is reality.

That doesn't excuse PCGS from their actions, any more than it excuses SGS, ACG, or others, but it does speak to how the market views these compaines -- rightly or wrongly.

As long as collectors buy the coin, not the slab, they'll be OK. The challenge is gaining the knowledge and experience...before jumping in with both feet. My only hope in posting to this thread is to share my experience, with the hope that others can learn from my mistakes...Mike

 

OK on those last two points at least I can agree with you lol...

The perception is only reality for as long as people to perceive it to be so. I hope that people will in time learn that perception to be incorrect... I can't do that much about it except try to convince anyone who's willing to be convinced... I can however, refuse to buy into the hype personally, and I refuse to ever pay a TPG to grade a coin and I'll never buy a slabbed coin if I can help it. Only exception I'll make is if a coin is a potentially valuable one that is often faked... in which case I'm paying for authentication, not grading. (That I do believe is worth paying for, if done right.)

I'd urge everyone here who agrees with me to do everything they can to put the TPGs out of business. Realistically I know they'll be sticking around for a while as long as people perceive them to have a service worth paying for. But don't buy into it, and convince anyone you can not to buy into it either. The hobby will be much better off without them.

 

Frankly, I'm not so sure the market would be better if the TPGs weren't to exist.

At least it levels the playing field, so to speak. Remember, before TPGs, all you had to judge the grade was the dealer's (i.e. seller's) and your opinion. With the advent of a third party grading, you have a (relatively) trusted third opinion.

While I think the TPGs have caused problems, particularly around modern coins, in the classic market they have solved many more than they have caused, in my opinion, and I for one don't want to go back to the way things were.

Regardless of if the TPGs are around or not, the message is the same: Learn as much as you possibly can about coins, learn to grade, and (sadly) trust nobody but yourself (or others that have nothing to gain)...Mike

 

I don't buy slabs except for my collection.

Mostly I just set aside nice coins for the future because so few people have been doing it. I've gone to great effort to track down things like gem bags of 1982-P quarters so I could pick out the few that were nice enough to save. It took some courage to tie up even 25c in a coin that everybody said would never be worth anything. It took time and effort, it took heavy lifting, and it took a lot of patience and looking around. Now that they actually have some value I only wish I had had more courage and put more effort into it.

It's getting harder to do everyday. You have competition now at the banks and the banks often refuse to provide new coin. You used to be able to find enormous quantities of mint sets to look through but these are mostly gone now and what you do find is often picked over already. It can still be done, but it takes more effort for smaller reward. Or maybe I'm wrong and I'm just passing up a great opportunity. There are lots of new coins around and pricing is much more a function of demand thabn of supply. Look at what just a little demand has done to the price of '82-P quarters.

 

don't have one.

 

OK like I said in the other thread on a similar topic we're just going to have to agree to disagree. A third opinion is purely subjective and is worth no more than the first two. I firmly believe the TPGs have caused way more problems than they've solved and the hobby would be better off without them. If they went away it would force people to educate themselves about the coins they buy and the only harm would be to those unwilling or unable to do so, who frankly shouldn't be in the hobby in the first place. It would also eliminate most of those who see purchasing of coins as merely an investment, thus allowing the prices to drop to more reasonable levels for true collectors who want to collect coins purely for the sake of doing so.

I can just barely remember the way things were... I joined the hobby when the slabs were a brand new thing and never saw the necessity despite those trying to convince me otherwise. I still don't.

 

Thanks again for the feedback. Alot of good info on this thread.