1982-D Washington Commem 50C condition rarity 68+ question and die history

Modern condition rarities are a fascinating subject that I want to discuss and do more research on. We are familiar with the green boxed 1982-D Washington BU Commemoratives. Many are plagued with weak strikes. In mint boxes, these generally run $5-$10, but I have seen PCGS/NGC examples in MS68 run between $75-$100, furthermore, I have seen PCGS/NGC examples in MS69 break the $500-$700 barrier. The PCGS price guide does show $600+ for an MS69 example. I am currious if anyone is cherrypicking these and looking at strikes. I would also like to know where I can learn more about the die history and what lead to this condition rarity. Thoughts and opinions welcome.

 

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The conditional rarity is defined by how the TPGs arbitrarily assign the grade, and the collectors who buy into it...Mike

 

As I understand it, this particular coin is notorious for weak strikes and is plagued with them. PCGS assigned a price of $600 in their online price guide for an example in MS69. I doubt this was "arbitrary"

 

lol Hear me now, believe me later....

Come back to this thread after a year or two and tell me if you still feel that way.

You are right, this issue has strike issues, but if you believe the PCGS price guides for modern coins or if their grading standards are anything but arbitrary on these coins, you have much to learn, my friend...Mike

 

I personally don't collect the stuff, I am however interested in researching the phenomenon. I collect Bust and Barber coins in G4-MS
As far as the PCGS guide, I thought it was actually based on actual auction and sales data. Are you saying that its arbitrary without actual sales data to back it up?

 

FWIW, here's the NGC populations for this coin:

64: 7
65: 31
66: 129
67: 301
68: 626
69: 71

So look at it like this, more than half of the entire population is graded 68. If 68 is the average grade in a slab, why pay so much of a premium, when the coin is available unslabbed for a fraction of this. To me that's an expensive piece of plastic.

When evaluating slabbed coins, ask yourself, how much is this coin worth outside of the slab? If the answer is signficantly less than the coin raw, you have an expensive piece of plastic, in my opinion....Mike

 

I bought about 4 Proofs and 4 Uncs at the Philly Mint store back when they came out.The ones I picked are pretty nice. Still have most of them I gavea couple them away long time ago to relative

 

Interesting analysis. It would be interesting to get input from cladking.

 

For moderns, yes.

The PCGS price guide is a fantasy for most modern issues -- way inflated.

It is supposed to reflect retail prices for coins. Supposed to being the key words.

All price guides are questionable, in my opinion. All have issues.

The best guide to prices are open-market transactions, like Heritage, eBay, and to a lesser extent Teletrade. You will note in many cases they are lower than PCGS price guides, which are published so people like you (no offense) mistake them for real values.

Respectfully...Mike

 

Good point leadfoot, but I have been collecting for 30 years and started collecting certified coins. (the coins, not the plastic) since 1989.
I don't pay full PCGS price guide for anything., and I don't collect moderns :smile

 

I'd like to hear his take too, but I doubt he will disagree...Mike

 

They were the first 90% silver coins minted since 1964

 

I would like to hear exactly what was responsible for the weak strikes. I would like to know more about the dies and their history.

 

Don't tell anyone, but I often pay over the price guide for really nice coins. I've even been known to buy an overgraded one from time to time.

The key is that you have to be able to tell the good coins from the bad ones. That is not a skill that is easy to acquire, and it would be disingenous to say that I've not made mistakes, but the really nice coins (particularly classic coins) often go for over price guide numbers.

It just depends on the coin and the price guide price. For moderns, rarely are they underestimated, for clasiscs, they are more realistic, but still optimistic and all over the place -- some are low, most are high.

Experience and closely tracking the market for a coin will tell you which is which. For modern commemoratives, I would suggest that the above analysis is accurate, and the prices are inflated relative to the true market value (i.e. an inflated "retail" price).

Remember, PCGS gets the majority of its revenue from modern coins, so it makes sense that they would be overly optimistic in pricing them in the price guide...Mike

 

I would agree that premium and PQ coins deserve a premium for sure and I agree with you on the different dynamics that operate within the modern and classic markets. We are for the most part in agreement, but I would also like the learn more about what lead to the crappy quality within these specific issues as well as what happened in the minting process to yield such poor strikes.

 

Sorry, can't help you there. Perhaps a PM to Clad asking him to weigh in would be appropriate.....

 

Just pm'ed him.

 

This is not an accurate assessment of the availability of these coins in this condition. Buy 100 coins blind and submit them and I guarantee you will not get (6) in MS69 and (54) in MS68 as the percentages graded would imply.

Most of the modern coins graded by NGC & PCGS come in thru their bulk submission program. These submissions have a minimum grade with coins grading lower not being slabbed or reflected in the population reports. You submit 100 coins and request a minimum grade of MS65 and 30 coins end up slabbing at MS65 or higher. You never see the 70 coins that didn't slab, only the 30 that did. You can't assume that those modern coins listed in the pop reports are reflective of the overall quality of coins available. They usually aren't!

 

Greg:
your statement certainly makes sense. Thanks for sharing.

 

That's a very good point Greg, however I never said this was the average grade in the overall slabbed/unslabbed population, only in slabs. Regardless, your point is a valid one and would tend to skew the NGC pop reports relative to the entire population of slabbed and unslabbed coins.

That said, what are your thoughts on the PCGS price guide values on this coin?

Perhaps even more to the point, as an advanced collector and active seller of coins, how many of these high grade modern commemoratives do you have in your personal collection that were bought already in plastic for price-guide prices?