Hi, I know this is a very general question, but I was wondering is there a ballpark figure for the price that is paid for graded coins in relation to their value on the PCGS or NGC website? In other words, what percentage of the price guide value do collectors pay on average. Any help is appreciated. Thanks in advance to all who respond!
I would look at auctions sold prices first and then compare to them PCGS and NGC values. wait for other experienced opinions...
I have purchased a lot of slabbed coins. One of the first things I do is verify the coin on the TPG website and make note of their listed value. Then I further do some auction research that will generally be in line with the listed value by the TPG. Now the real value is all over the place. I don’t think a percentage could actually be applied. I have paid the value listed. I have paid as much as 50% less than the value listed. Just depends on the desirability of the coin really.
I agree with Randy Abercrombie. I recently bought a nice MS65 1937-D nickel for $54, but the NGC price guide value is $64. It also depends on other things like if it is toned or not, which can exponentially raise the value. I am thinking about buying a toned MS63 1886 Morgan for $97, but the NGC price guide value is only $70.
Two years ago I spotted the coin of my dreams in a Midwest coin shop. Proof66 Star with the most gorgeous perfectly rainbow tone framing the coin. I spent six months studying this coin. According to the PCGS site that seated dime is worth $2500.00. For six months I wooed that dealer starting at $1900.00. My ongoing offers went beyond the $2500.00 TPG listing all the way to $2850.00. Even after telling myself I wouldn’t exceed the TPG number. The dealer would not budge from $3300.00 though. Man, two years later I still dream of that dime. Probably a good thing I didn’t buy it in a moment of weakness because I been seeing the values soften. Lordy I want that dime.
Instead of concerning yourself with some imaginary blanket "ballpark" discount to guide price, perhaps it would be wise to focus on only quality pieces, even if it means paying a premium to said guides. The "deal mentality" is one of the most dangerous and self-defeating afflictions one involved in this hobby can contract and I respectfully suggest you avoid it as if the plague.
Recent auction prices realized is probably the best guide to value. Just remember that the total price realized includes both the hammer price plus buyer's premium. If you were to place the coin back in an auction immediately, your expected return would be hammer price. Most price guides, including those of NGC and PCGS, list a higher value than recent auction prices realized. In part, this is likely a favor to dealers. It's much easier for a customer to quickly pick a value out of a price guide compared to studying recent auction prices realized. And if the price in the guide is higher than median price realized by the issue in recent auctions, so much the better for the dealer when it comes to negotiating with the customer. When looking a recent prices realized, it's not uncommon to see a twofold or more range of prices for the same issue in the same grade from the same grading service. By looking at the coins, some of the limitations of technical grading become apparent. Many attributes that affect the appeal and auction price of a coin, like toning, strike, mint-origin "blemishes" (adjustment marks, die cracks, etc.) , variety and more affect the auction price of a coin, but have a minor role in grading. In some cases, a high price is due to two or more bidders getting carried away in a competitive bidding frenzy. In some cases, a low price is just due to a lack of potential bidders who are interested in the issue being aware that it's at auction or due to several of the same issue coming to auction in a short time span. To establish the value of a coin by using auction prices realized, you should: 1. Look at the coin itself and not just the grade on the label and try to find comparable looking coins of the same grade and grading service in past auctions. Images by auction houses are pretty good these days and easily available online. eBay images vary a lot though. If the image in an eBay listing is poor, contact the seller. If there is no improvement, don't buy or bid. 2. Among comparable coins, use the median price, not the average price. The median is the price of the coin in the middle. Arrange the prices in order, and the one in the middle is the median and represents the average coin. That's right ... the price of the average coin is represented by the median price ... not the average price! The problem with using the average is that one or two outrageously high or low coins can skew the average quite a bit up or down. For example, if prices of the last seven coins auctioned, arranged in price order, were 75, 88, 91, 102, 110, 120, 433, the median is 102, but the average is 146. A technique I use that usually comes pretty close to the median is to throw out the high and the low and average the rest. You've seen this done in subjective athletic competitions ... diving, gymnastics, skating, etc. Do it for the above example, you'll get 102. Yup, the above takes time and effort. But that's what it takes to get a good value estimate. Is it worth it for cheaper coins, say those under $50 or $100? Every collector has to decide for themselves. You're not likely to do it for junk box coins. However, even for inexpensive coins, researching past auction sales can be rewarding, and not just financially and educationally ... it can be fun! Cal
