1857-S Double Eagle/ vastly overpriced....

Yes, I know, but I'm still waiting for the FMV to match the current population numbers. $15.00 was still high back in 62 compared to the fall of '98-O and 04-O. And for that matter, 82, 83 and 84-CC Morgans are over-valued based on MS survival numbers. But, the Carson City appeal factor boosts these. New Orleans on the other hand adds no appeal...

 

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Good thread.

 

I would have to agree that I do not understand why the 1857 S Double Eagle is priced so high. Before the SS Central America coins were found, there were only about 200 MS type I double Eagles known. Naturally those were incredibly expensive. But there are literally thousands of 1857 S double Eagles now in MS. And now with the recent recovery, thousands more. There should be more than enough of them to go around for type coin collectors.

 

Absolutely right. There were 119K 1857-S Double Eagles on the ship, 30,000 have been recovered in three salvage operations, the rest are going to be brought up in next recovery attempts. This would make the 1857-S the MOST common date/ in MS/ of any US gold coin made before 1933. When these new ones hit the market/ prices will drop significantly, that is when I will get mine

 

Yep. Eventually they will be priced like the other common dates. I've never been attracted to uncirulated coins, but I do like xf40 to AU55 or so - more mojo you might say. There seem to be a lot of issues that are more common in MS grades - speculation is because they were "put up" by collectors when they were issued and then the circulated coins were gathered up and melted. I've always wondered what the big attraction is to mint state coins - unless of course they are MS 66, MS67 or higher - that I can understand, just because they are near perfect. As to 1857 - I was happy to get a CAC quality 1857 Philly mint double eagle and it is actually a relatively scarce coin in circulated grades. Fewer than a thousand estimated survivors and around the middle of the pack in type one rarity. I was happy to get it a few years ago and realized at that time (5 yrs ago) it was already more scarce than the 57S - which was popping up everywhere. That said, I'd like to have shipwreck coin, but I don't want to pay a big premium for it. Since technology has made shipwreck recovery relatively easy (albeit expensive, but wow, not when you find tons of gold on them!) they will become more and more common. But that coin that was minted in New Orleans and on the street in the 1850's? Not so common.

 

Supply AND demand. Even if more are recovered, if the story (hype, intrigue, whatever) keeps demand up, prices will stay high.

 

True, initial demand should be high because it is being hyped. But usually a few years go by and the hype has gone, supply stays the same and demand falls. Just look at the modern US Mint stuff, you have the flippers making money from the initial hype, then a few years or even months later, prices and demand falls.

 

One unknown is demand by folks who aren't really coin collectors, which can be manipulated by marketing. There are a lot of middle to high income people who haven't done any serious collecting and may want one of these coins. Or if they don't at present, can be persuaded by good marketing. Provence is a big part of it. The fact that they are the largest US gold coins and look nice helps.

I can imagine some of my friends and relatives, who really have no interest in numismatics, buying one of these coins. The appeal of these coins extends beyond the normal realm of coin collecting.

Cal

 

Don't know how many of the Saddleridge Hoard coins were bought by people who aren't really coin collectors.

 

Here we are talking not about someone finding a hoard of 50-100 of this date in MS condition. Actual fact is there are 119,000 of them down on the ocean floor waiting to be recovered/ perhaps 20,000 are already curated/ cleaned up ready for sale. Anyone with a brain will know that if you saturate the market with that many examples the inflated past auctions prices will plummet and rightly so. past experiences prove this, when a Spanish wreck was salvaged off the coast of Uruguay, hundreds of mint state AV 8 Escudos of Fernando VI/ Chile/ 1751-So hit the coin market, prices dropped, big time. There are a lot of really rare coins/ less then 20 known that today sell for way less then a MS-65 1857-S Double Eagle.

 

With regard to the title of the thread, accurately represented coins can't be overpriced because they're all luxury items. Not remotely in the same category as food, shelter and medical care. For the sake of their own financial wellbeing, sellers should get as much as they can from willing buyers. The only way coins can be overpriced is if the price is too high for any buyer to consider a purchase.

Hard to know what "the market" is for these coins. In this case, there is an American ship that went down off the American coast carrying big beautiful American gold coins from the American gold rush. Some of the stories associated with the sinking, discovery of the wreck and recovery of loot will only help promote sales. It's probably the best ever opportunity to market multi-thousand-dollar coins to Americans regardless of their numismatic inclinations. Expect to see ads in mags, like Nat'l Geo, Forbes, etc. and other print and electronic media that are seen by middle and upper income Americans. And I'd guess many of these ads won't be by traditional coin companies.

Funny thing is that although there may be more than enough of these coins to saturate the numismatic market, it probably takes that many to interest some of the upscale mass marketers. Want a Central America double eagle to go with your Tesla or Merecedes? Here ya go!

Rarity is only one component of price. Another is hard-to-quantify desirability. 1907 proof liberty-head double eagles are in the same price range as MS 1907 high-relief St. Gaudins even though the latter is 10-100 times more common. The reason: a lot more folks desire the latter compared to the former.

I see possibilities, but can't predict with assurance. In the long run (years), the numismatic market may be the main one for the 1857-S with corresponding decrease in price.

Cal

 

Count me in for one if they drop a lot.

 

Prices already have been trending lower, but with this third haul coming on the market/ prices will drop again. There will be many more salvaged, resulting in lower prices. As the general population are educated to the fact that 119k of these exist/ they will be a sad ending for first buyers who paid insane amts. The Carson City Double Eagles had mintages of less then 100K to begin with/ most even lower then 30K. Over 900+ 1857-S examples were struck/ over a tenth of these were on the ship=not a good recipe for a long term investment(if thats the end goal) When you can buy a MS-66 1887 Indian Princess Gold Dollar for $2500.
Besides, they ONLY struck 7000 examples. Compare that to paying 15K for a MS-66 1857-S (970,500) 119,000 to be salvaged.

 

It's not an exact copy, but look what happened to other gold from the SS Central America. Specifically, the re-strikes.

They used some of the gold bars to make commemorative 1855 restrikes. They are basically just 2.5 ounces of gold. At the time, gold was trading for around $300/oz. So the value of the gold in the coins was about $750-$800.

The coins retailed for $5,000...were marketed to folks who wanted in on the SS Central America story back in 2000 or 2001 and couldn't afford the more pricey stuff from the 1st salvage. So they paid a 500% premium to the gold price.

Well, there was NO numismatic value to these coins....but it still took a while....almost a decade. Eventually, after about 10 years or so, the price collapsed to where you can buy one at 10% premium to the underlying coin value.

 

This is one of the best threads dealing with the SSCA saga relating to the cache of '57-S Libs I have read. The current corollary that keeps running through my mind is the SSCA gold Libs vs. the 1907 (roman numerals) Saint High relief. The Saint prices were high 10 years ago; 15 years ago. The "value" has not changed. So....think about it: 11k High Relief vs. 119k SSCA 57-S. If the HR hasn't moved in value for decades, from an investment standpoint it going down in actual-dollar value. Now, you look at the SSCA 57-S Lib with over 10x the coins of the HR (with only a portion on the market now) that reality makes the dollar-value of the SSCA coins simply laughable! JMHO from an investment standpoint.

 

Well stated
US material was overpriced, check how market trends have dropped over past 10 years. In the meantime, world coinage has increased substanially over last ten years. Take for example a Austro-Hungarian Empire AV 4 Dukaten 1848-A Ferdinand V in FDC =MS-65. These go for 12-20K euros.
Mintage was 4450 examples. Imagine now what a US gold coin in MS-65 from 1840's with that mintage would hammer at.....
A MS-65 1857-S (119K) on track to be salvaged, average auctionprice 10-12K (there are probably only 10-15 1848-A 4 Dukaten in existance.

 

Salvage costs are probably in the thousands of $ per coin...the price will keep rising as long as there is a demand for these.

 

I would say more like $100 per coin, even at that figure, salvage cost would be $119,000,000 MILLION dollars, which is still very inflated. Prices have been coming down since first coins came to auctions, with the additional dumps on market, prices will slump. Which is good for average collectors to acquire these in future. Then of course there are gold bars/ ingots/ other AV coins on wreck site.

 

So you are saying that 1857 Liberty's are going alot lower ?

 

Not true. Some St. Gaudens $20 have more in MS.

Not a chance, unless they were brought up one at a time.