1857-S Double Eagle/ vastly overpriced....

Now that another large quantity of 1857-S Double Eagles have been brought up from the SS Central America wreck (2014) will prices finally plummet? Estimates are that there are still thousands of these waiting to be recovered in future salvage efforts. Some ads out there have prices for MS-64 @ $7000 65@10K, which are outrageous. Realistic prices would be MS-64 @2K 65@3K. You can get a MS-66+ no motto 1908 St. Gaudens @ 1800! There are way more 1857-S examples, then 1908 "no motto" Double Eagles So far over 10,000+ of these have been recovered, 90 percent in Choice MS or better.

 

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I'd love to have an example if they were reasonable in price.

 

Me too! Hopefully, with the news of this third hoard coming to light, collectors will drive down the crazy prices by lowering their bids to reflect how common these are in MS-64/65/66. There are 10 of thousands still down there waiting to be salvaged.

 

As long as the word "Shipwreck" keeps bringing a premium, the coins will be too expensive. Hmmm... Maybe I'll start describing some of my uglier coins as "Train wrecks" and see if I can get more money for them. Or maybe a "Jackknifed semi."

 

You really appear to be a dreamer, who should probably be looking for a 1889cc Gem Morgan at a tenth of its current price, as there are far more of those than the 1857S Liberties. Yes, that coin at less than 7 times spot would be a great deal, as would a gem 1889cc Morgan at the same premium. I really don't believe using mintages as a basis for relative value is practical. I bought a gem 1857-S Liberty at more than the hardly varying last decade average price, and it's a good thing you aren't desiring the 1857-P.

The next time you locate one of those NGC or PCGS certified MS-66+ 1908 St. Gaudens @ $1800, please let me know, as I'm a buyer. A Motto would even be more appreciated since we're dreaming.

JMHO

 

You really appear to be a dreamer, who should probably be looking for a 1889cc Gem Morgan at a tenth of its current price, as there are far more of those than the 1857S Liberties. Yes, that coin at less than 7 times spot would be a great deal, as would a gem 1889cc Morgan at the same premium. I really don't believe using mintages as a basis for relative value is practical. I bought a gem 1857-S Liberty at more than the last decade average price, and it's a good thing you aren't desiring the 1857-P.

The next time you locate one of those NGC or PCGS certified MS-66+ 1908 St. Gaudens @ $1800, please let me know, as I'm a buyer. A Motto would even be more appreciated since we're dreaming.

JMHO

 

The prices will come down with time. Many owners will be resistant to selling at a loss, as is only human. But as they pass and their heirs sell collections, prices will drop. Simple supply and demand.

 

Bob Evans, the chief curator of this recent hoard, pretty well said that he and the current owner of this recent salvage operation will offer these at more realistic prices. They had 3100 1857-S examples, that had just been brought up, expertly r
cleaned, now are ready to sell. He also stated that there are thousands more to be salvaged, in future recovery efforts. Total number could be over 119,000 coins=lots of collectors can now own a MS 1857-S $20 gold piece. JMHO: Sorry, my mistake that 1908 "no motto" was $2000, I got it last yr from Stacks/Bowers. I got it mixed up with a MS-66 1928 I won from Heritage. I am really not talking about mintages, since FDR had most melted down in 1934. Here we had a ship that went down with 119K 1857-S Double Eagles, which will probably all be recovered. I highly doubt that there are 119K examples from any other year, mint around today/ esp. in perfect quality. US coin prices have been dropping for some time now, due most were overpriced compared to world prices.
John

PS: Here is a coin from my coll. (FDC/ only 12-15 known/ got it for less then 5K.

 

Agree

 

Great for you!!!

 

Beautiful example.

 

That statement is completely unbased when looking at survival rates. There are more uncirculated 1857 S double eagles than uncirculated 1889 CC Morgans. But since we are talking about Gem grades (MS-65 and above), there are around 200 times the number of gem 1857 S doubles eagles (not counting the ones still on the bottom of the ocean) than the number of gem 1889 CC Morgans. And if the rest of the 1857 S double eagles are brought up and the population increases to over 100000, you can be your rear end that prices will decrease.

And I am completely ignoring mintage numbers in this discussion as they are totally irrelevant.

 

Don't forget the popular 'used-as-a-screwdriver-once' designation!

 

Let's not forget what happened to the Uncirculated 1904-O Morgan Dollar market in the early 1960's when the Mint released bags of them. They went from $300.00 to around $5.00 due to the release of them. It's simple supply and demand.

 

Esp. with all the sensationalized news headlines about the new hoard of material they salvaged in 2014/ plus there are more coins down on the ocean floor, then have been recovered. It would be hard to keep it secret. Look what happened to prices of AV Dinars of Seljuks of Rum, after they found a small hoard of 50/75 MS Dinars from three rulers. Prices of originals plummeted to $1500/2000 from five figures amts. Presently, the 1857-S is the most OVERPRICED coin.....for numbers in existence.

 

Keep the story in mind....there could be 1 billion (literally) pieces and the price won't go down either.
That's sad, as I would buy one of these gladly.

 

DeBeers does the same thing with diamonds. Just trickle them out to almost satisfy demand to keep the price elevated. Just common sense vs. human frailty. Don't want to pony up the cash (or can't), then move along so the next person can have a chance. Either wait until the price MAY come down, or pay the ferry man.

 

I think they will, well they started dropping last year, before this recent story came to light.Unlike with the diamonds, everyone now knows the exact number of coins recovered, yet to be salvaged from ship's manifest, exact records exist of the number of 1857-S that were on board. But once the panic mode sets in, collectors with the "overpriced examples" will want to unload, before prices drop more, that's human. Same thing happened to Morgan Dollars. Recent history, the Shah Jahan I AV Mohur from Surat Mint/ dated 1630. When the "Akola Hoard" was found, prices dropped 95%....I bought a perfect gem example for $400 in 1990. Could never had afforded it before that. Same with Chile 1751-So Santiago Mint AV 8 Escudos Fernando VI of Spain, before the La Neustra treasure was salvaged, these coins were impossible in mint state quality. I bought a MS GEM 1751 for $3200. Now that wreck had NO where near the number of example the SS Central America has. $3200 was a fair price....

 

And what didn't happen to the 1903-O Morgan. The population of the 03-O is about the same as the '03-P but is valued and sells at 4x the 03-P. I'm still waiting for the adjustment....

 

While that may be true now, but go look at the prices the 1903-O commanded back before the Treasury release hit the market. My copy of 'A Guide Book of Morgan Silver Dollars' states that the average price of an uncirculated 1903-O Morgan Dollar went from $1500.00 to around $15.00. Again this was around 1962 that this happened. So there was a HUGE affect by the Treasury release on the once scarce Morgans.