Is the Morgan toner market cooling?

It's coin-show weekend here in central NC, and along with the usual load of generic 90%, I took a couple of Morgan toners to offer to my favorite dealer-buyer.

One has quite a lot of color on the obverse, and in the dealer's opinion (which I trust) is about MS61. The other has less colorful toning, but some distinct pull-away at the date, and he graded it around 63.

We didn't meet on a price, but one of his comments surprised me: he said he wasn't seeing as much demand for color as he did a few years ago. In his experience, toners tend to get admired, but not bought, so he doesn't really want more for his inventory.

Does anyone else agree that the market is cooling? I trust this guy completely, but I also know that his experience isn't necessarily universal.

For full disclosure, here's the obverse of the first coin in question. The reverse has only some very light, patchy brownish toning around the rim and devices.


I certainly don't think this is a monster in terms of eye appeal, and it's not high MS, but it is colorful, I don't think it's been messed with (and neither did he), and it's not approaching terminal anywhere as best I can tell.

Thoughts?

 

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I don't like it, I don't think that's nt.

 

It is cooling in my recent experience. I auctioned a MS64 star ngc Morgan for only $114 a few weeks ago. I started seeing this about a year ago, however, when I had a PCGS MS66 rainbow toned beauty. That coin got zero interest with buy-it-now. I finally auctioned it on eBay after a month or so. It sold with no premium at all! $230!

I will say, however, that other type coins that do not normally have rainbow toning, are still red hot. Bust halves, standing quarters, walking halves, etc.

 

Toners of any kind are an acquired taste and are subject to the fickleness of the marketplace.

 

I dont think its a matter of the toning market cooling off. Which it may very well be.
Noone wants to pay full blown retail for a raw so-so low Unc toner (dealer OR collector)
Raw toners are always a tough sell....
They dont command anywhere near what the premium is for slabbed ones. Idc what series it is either

 

No, the market isn’t cooling. It maybe be shrinking, as it is a very big dollar sport, but I see prices still spiraling out of control for market acceptable attractive certified Morgans.

 

Agreed. Raw toners are a hard sell.

I think what likely happened was it was a polite way of the dealers saying he wasn’t interested in those

 

He did say that, too.

I've been dealing with him for a while. He has no problem saying that directly.

Edit to add: I've got a lot of stuff that doesn't interest him...

 

In my experiences, the market is not cooling for toned Morgans. I was winning auctions for less 1.5-2 years ago (2015-2016) compared to the last year (2017). Some material has gone down (average to below average toners...this includes something like an NGC Star coin that barely has any color) but the nicer vivid coins continue to increase (or at least go for fairly large premiums).

Raw coins are another story. While I don't always agree with this opinion, I do think many are now convinced that if something is raw, then there must be a problem. Factors like tighter grading, inability to grade, and over-saturation of AT products (from sources like edynamic) contribute to that mindset.

 

And to illustrate my point (not full proof, but just an idea of what I have seen):

Here is an NGC MS 63* which sold for virtually no premium at 77.40...it is a toner, but there is just too little color to draw much bidding. This coin has declined with the rest of the generic MS 63-65 Morgans.





Now compare it to this toner (no star, but older holder) that sold for $270...that is around a 4.5x premium over guide due to the coin being more interesting and colorful (this in my opinion is an above average toner that has not fallen in this market):



https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/523187/1896-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-NGC-MS-63-226-152-133-Toned

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/527181/1885-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-NGC-MS-63-Toned

 

... and this one has much nicer colors & surfaces than the other Morgan.

 

Which coin are you referencing?
I would say both the 1896 and 1885-O are fairly accurate at MS 63, but the 1885-O has the nicer toning.

 

I referenced the 1896 - she has the best eye appeal and the nicest toning, no matter the grade. I’d have paid more than $77.

 

I'll say with a pretty high degree of certainty that coin is artificially toned. It just doesn't look right at all.

I think the dealer's excuse that the toner market is cooling and he can't use any more for his inventory is a polite way of saying that he can't use *that* coin. I'm fairly certain that if you brought him a naturally toned, slabbed, colorful piece, he'd buy it.

In today's market, originality and eye appeal are where the strong money will be. If you've followed other recent threads, there seems to be a general consensus that the market as a whole is cooling, but there is an increasing dichotomy: Generic, altered, raw, or problem coins are dropping in price rapidly, but eye appealing, original, or rare coins are still doing well.

 

So much of this is personal choice, after all. I wouldn't spend my money on a toned coin.

 

Without sidetracking into the whole "what is AT vs. NT" philosophical debate, I'll defer to your opinion that this coin is poorly toned by today's market standards.

I got this coin in a lot of 10. All 1887-P, all AU to low mint state, each stapled into a cardboard 2x2, and all put into a 3x4-pouch vinyl (?) 3-hole page. The seller inherited the lot, I think; it was listed as an eBay BIN, with the title "Morgan Dollar" and an image of one coin, at $150. I had to read the whole description to realize that it was ten coins for that price -- at a time when melt value was around $25/coin.

I don't think I have images from the lot when i first got it, but I suspect that the coins have toned a bit further since I got them. In other words, they or the 2x2s may have something active on them. If the toning is progressing, it's moving from the rims inward, and somewhat uniformly.

So, I didn't set out to do a toning experiment on this batch, but I wonder if I should leave the other eight in their original (to me) packaging and see what happens? I don't think any of the coins are high-MS or desirable VAMs, so I don't think there's a big downside. The upside is that I may learn some more about toning progression.

And meanwhile, I certainly won't generalize my experience with these coins to the entire toned-coin market!

 

I noticed a significant drop in coin prices around 2007 when a lot of people lost a lot of money. The only exception were the rare coins, which softened but kept stronger prices. So, like anything, when people have money, inflation; no money, no inflation.

As far as toned Morgans go, coins with one-sided toning are not as appealing- its like a coin with a cameo obverse but no cameo on the reverse. I would venture a guess here that Morgans with natural toning on both sides have not declined in value.

 

I'm not a real fan of toners - of the 50+ or 60+ Morgans that I have, I do not believe I currently possess one. That said, I do like to see them (I should admit here that I do have a couple of colorized ASE's) since they are unique in that I don't think I've ever seen two look the same.

The one special thing I think this one has going for it is the 4th of July motif - it looks like fireworks going off behind Liberty's head!

 

I like gazing at toners but, as a general rule, don’t buy them simply because I can’t wrap my hands around what is a good price. I’m not one to say I love a particular coin and jump in with both hands to get it.

And if the market for toners is cooling, as some of you say, could it be partially due to a proliferation of artificial toning?