Demise of numismatics

Really, what do you think, it declined?

 

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A lot of "facts" have been spewed in this thread...provide references damnit.

"Use the search feature" is not a reference!

 

= nowhere

 

Well said and I can't agree more. If one only believes that a true coin collector is one who only belongs to coin clubs and attend coin shows regularly then maybe in their eyes numismatics is dying. On the other hand, go online and see how active online auctions are and the wide variety of examples that are sold. Modern technology has changed the face of numismatics.

 

The trick phrase is, "in one way or another". Yes, the State Quarter Series pretty much made that happen all by itself. What is ABSOLUTELY shrinking is the number of people who are numismatists seriously enough to go out and buy stuff. CRH-ing pennies doesn't get it done. Look @GDJMSP, I know Peter Davis, and by extension, you, have a vested interest in "rah rahing" Internet numismatics, and I think it colors YOUR perception. Peter is, of course, Internet first, NOT numismatics first.

Our advertiser, RIGHT HERE, Lost Dutchman Coins, on his podcast with Mike Noodle, admits he puts his "meh" junk online, and his best stuff goes to his old-fashioned wantlist customers, primarily Indy locals. And in his "coolest thing to walk in" segment, the OVERWHELMING majority are still raw.

Meanwhile, the internet jockeys keeping selling the same material over and over and think they're growing. Why else would they say something as stupid as "all good stuff is already slabbed", a BLATANT untruth?

 

Kinda hard to NOT be growing when the "base" is zero. What do they amount to? Nothing! Look, even on the CBS Evening News last night they did a story on "cyber-shopping" and while it continues to grow, it will only be about 15% of Christmas shopping this year. About 85% will still be in brick and mortar stores. And that's now with the public web being well over 20 years old. Whoopie!

 

ALL THE PROFESSIONAL REFERENCES SAY THE HOBBY IS DECLINING - EVERY BLESSED ONE OF THEM!!!! By the way, all antiques and collectibles are - it's not just stamps and coins. It's trivially easy to furnish a home with antiques and pay 1/4 to 1/10 what you did only a few years ago.

The reason my area IS what I call the "epicenter" is because it also is the epicenter of ALL antiquities. Rural Pennsylvania is where it's at, and the stuff is getting cheaper and cheaper, and that includes the coins.

Every weekend the parking lots are loaded with plates from Massachusetts to Virginia, PARTICULARLY New York, and they're hauling home obscene bargains. Why else do you think Laura Sperber briefly partnered with a firm here? The stuff is thick as flies here. Laura got all ticked off because the other guy didn't want to do ONLY coins.

 

You are right, he does just put up his 'meh' stuff on line for the most part, and why wouldn't he when he has a b&m shop and a long client base for the more worthwhile/collectible/unusual (keep on using the adjectives to describe the type of coins he keeps to sell out of his store basically)? That type of business, once set and maintained, is very valuable. He would be stupid to go entirely to internet or ebay or whatever, as I would image a large part of his business was built up on a personal basis. And he serves the area he is in, and as a reliable dealer, he is there for those people who will many times only have a one time experience with him if they are bringing in things like inherited collections or whatever, things that may have been hidden to the public for many years. I think that handling raw coins as well is to be expected as a major thing because it is easy enough if someone wants to sell a slabbed item on the net or something, but not as easy for the non-numismatist to sell a raw coin of true value. Also it somewhat mitigates selling a really high end item to someone who might take you for it through paypal or ebay rangling or credit card reversals, etc. Things like that do happen and it is not pleasant for the seller to have to lose out. Having the B&M and working with what have been reliable customers in the past can be advantageous.

I would do the same if I was in his shoes because that is a lot of work that he has put in to get where he is. But I would not say that is necessarily the model that new dealers are going to get into, when it can be easier to simply get on line and create a presence there. There will be a downside, but items do move on line.

I just see internet being more and more popular for many coin collectors.

 

I don't doubt that at all. I just refuse to believe that it's either quantitatively or QUALITATIVELY a one-for-one replacement for the generation now assuming ambient temperature. Yes, Internet will grow, traditional will shrink. But the whole "pie" will be smaller, outside of the very high end and the rank beginners who never go farther.

 

Kurt you can believe whatever you want that doesn’t make it true. You talk about Doug and Peters vested interest in “rah-rahing” the internet but you have a vested interest in talking it down because that’s not how you want it to be. You freely admit you don’t want collecting to be web based and want the ANA to play a major role with collectors.

All those writers who ignore the internet are just as wrong as you are about this. You guys can keep believing it’s declining that’s fine everyone else knows the real truth. Really most of them just think it’s declining because their subscriptions are. Why would anyone pay to read their stuff when they’re so clueless they can’t even see a massive healthy market with verifiable sales histories all over the internet? Their readership will continue to decline as will ANA membership as long as they want to take the stubborn hardline that you’re expressing.

Collecting has been moving more and more online for several years and will continue to do so. People can either take advantage of the blessing we have with the internet allowing collectors access to countless coins they never would have even seen in the preinternet days or they can continue to bury their head in the sand and be left in the past showing how out of touch they are.

The simple fact is the next generation of collectors are predominately online buyers. That’s not going to change and will only continue to grow. You can demean them all you want it won’t make any difference to them nor will it stop or even slow the trend. All it does is alienate you from them and as a vocal supporter and ANA volunteer just gives them one more reason not to join.

You actually have a big opportunity to try and change some of their minds and make the ANA relevant to them if you would embrace imtemret. That would be a far more productive use of time for your goals then trying to convince people that a massive market doesn’t exist despite countless verifiable measurements being right in front of people’s faces that seem to elude some in this hobby.

 

So I guess I need to also embrace "GTG" threads, too, huh? Not gonna happen. Why? Photos are inadequate, even the best ones are. Anyone who decides to buy coins based on the crud photos that are all too typical online DESERVES to get taken.

 

Exactly this. Not every model works for every dealer or person. He has a successful model that works for him and if it isn't broke don't fix it. Doesn't mean it would work for someone else without that long history and client base they've built.

There's really no right or wrong way to do it as long as it works for that seller.

You are right that it's not a one for one replacement, it's a much bigger net gain than that.

Naw, not anymore than if you wanted to do it for fun. I'm not a big fan of those either

 

Getting rather deep in opinions around here. Not a single reference to support the assumed/inferred data/facts.

 

That's really it, isn't it? It's "easier". I've never been an admirer of "easier". Things are harder for reasons. They tend to be better.

 

I think we would all agree that prices for a lot of coins have decreased in recent years. But how much if that is attributable to decreasing margins due to increasing internet sales? Not to mention grade inflation, but that’s a bit off topic for this thread. It’s not necessarily the result of the hobby’s decline.

I’ve been to one coin show since getting back into collecting 5 years ago, and wasn’t able to find a single coin that was priced anywhere near what I could have gotten it for on Heritage or EBay. If paying full Trends prices at a coin show full of old geezers is what it takes to be considered a bona fide numismatist then I’m happy to be part of the decline.

 

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Well, up to recently, I've always lived a lot further away from rural Pennsylvania and all the hot auctions there. Plus even though I live closer, it's not in the cards that I just pack up and travel a state or two or three away to attend an auction to see if I can pull something away from all the other regulars who attend who have more money to spend. And assuming I could, and had the money, most of the time when I was more mobile, I did not have the ability to because of other life obligations. So... easier to use the interwebs and fit my desire for being in numismatics in that mileau.

 

Not really. It used to be harder to get healthy before modern medicine, it used to be harder to travel before cars, it used to be harder to stay warm before heating, it used to be harder to communicate before phones ect. Things change and improve for a reason.

The more accessible it is the more people who will participate.

A good chunk for sure. It's hard to get full price for common date common grade common quality coins online when someone searches for one and sees countless options. The internet has certainly created a price race to the bottom in some areas and exposed how common some "key dates" like the S VDB really are.

 

That’s true. In the last 4 auctions I was at locally, there were a total of 5 S-VDB’s available. I don’t even know what a fair price is, but the one in Lebanon County, a PCGS MS64BN went for $1800.

Most of these old guys still think a 1950-D nickel is a find.

 

1800 is pretty high for a 64 BN even for a PCGS one. Most of them online this year have been 1300-1500 and even a PCGS CAC one at Baltimore was $1560 where Stacks sold over $13 mil in coins total. The auction records do appear to be softening on them over the last couple years.

That's one issue that just doesn't excite me, I'm pretty sure if I had the money I could build a grading set of it except for maybe the top pop or so in about 30 minutes.