Early Birthday Present: Constans/Hut

Several days to go @Bing, but she was good with me opening it early!

 

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The OP is a beautiful "hut" with lots of fine details. Late Roman bronze sure is interesting! I think their bang for the buck is high.

 

@Valentinian I agree, I think late Romans give more bang per buck than any other area of ancient coinage.

 

I wonder if there will come a day when the hoard finds dry up and coins which we casually toss aside today, like garden-variety Constantine votives or dragging captive Valens issues become sought after and valued. I vacillate between thinking that this consequence is inevitable, and alternately thinking that there are so many coins like this already in collector circulation that these coins will always be inexpensive and not particularly highly regarded.

 

I don't see Valens ever gaining much popularity to ever have a serious premium. Then again, there are 5 coins of Hanniballianus on vcoins between $300-$700, so who knows.

 

I'm thinking more in terms of scarcity rather than popularity. Hannibalianus can command a premium not because he's popular but because there just aren't very many coins of his around.

I'm just pointing out the obvious: that people aren't striking Roman coins anymore. Or at least not genuine Roman coins. There's a finite number of them. If the hoard finds slow down, will even common LRBs eventually become desirable and scarce as previous finds will already enjoy a place in collections? Or will the supply of these common coins always outstrip demand, regardless of future find frequency?

I'm just trying to imagine what this hobby might look like 25 or even 50 years from now. Will future collectors look back to the present time and say, "Could you REALLY buy a genuine Valens coin for $20 off of eBay?"

 

I find interesting the attitude that new finds are so important to the market. We see many dealers offering a large number of coins that all look to have been found and (recently) cleaned together. You know, there is another place to get coins. You could be buying the ones that were in your grandfather's collection. You can tell dealers who specialize in these, too. Instead of 100 denarii of one period all exactly the same color, you might find 100 assorted coins of assorted periods and assorted colors. It is easier for a dealer to buy a hoard than it is to find collections. When I started in the hobby, there seemed to be a much smaller interest in late Romans than there is now. On the other hand, we had a better selection of less than perfect (worn) coins that did not look like they had a recent run in with electrolysis or acid baths. I have known several collectors over the years who have passed away but I have no ides what happened to their coins. Perhaps, if the supplies of new finds dries up, we will be amazed at the number of 'pedestrian' collections that come to light out of someone's attic.

In 1974, I sold ~150 Roman coins. Since then I have not seen a single one of them show up for sale. Was the group sold as a lot to someone in Europe and still in a box since the buyer lost interest/died/went to jail??? Every so often we see a catalog offering large collections with large initials. I hope there are enough small collections not worth making a glossy catalog to sell that will support our continuing demand for a $20 Valens even after the metal detectors all go silent.

 

Happy Birthday today Michael !!!

Any more B-Day coins to share?

-d

 

That depends on the mailman. Thank you for the happy birthday. I woke up this morning, saw my age and was sure that there was some sort of clerical error!

 

LOL, YOU have not aged, only your body has aged. I am still 21, but my body constantly reminds me differently!

 

Prices will have to go up as demand increases. Coupled with stricter regulations and inflation it is very likely any ancient will be expensive. Impossible to know how many years that would take but seems inevitable. Thinking back 20 years it is very unlikely that you would see a vrbs roma commemorative over $100, now there are many.

 

a $100 dollar coin today, similarly priced 20 years ago, would be about $65.

 

Why would demand increase? Are young people suddenly preferring coin collecting to video games? In a few years there will be virtual reality experiences that may be even more distracting. Is there some reason that the hobby of coin collecting, which has been going downhill for decades, will somehow turn around?

Also, some collectors have no conception of the actual supply side. I have seen hoards of late Roman AE for sale with thousands of similar coins. Maybe some type has only a forty (a common type I just checked) or maybe only ten on vcoins, which seems a limited number that could be eventually exhausted, but there may be hundreds in storage just waiting for some of those to be sold first.

The last show I visited had a dealer with a full tray (70?) of coins of a particular Cappadocian king, all in great shape. I bought the best one, so one slot was emptied. He learned over, pulled up a plastic bag full, reached in and got one, and carefully placed it in the slot. The tray was full again.

Spend some time at English or European coin shows before deciding the supply of ancient coins is limited. The supply of certain types is very limited, but there are vast numbers of common coins available.

 

A demand in increase is an assumption of mine as the Internet reaches more people and developing nations start to have disposable income and an interest in ancients.
I'm not sure any of us know what demand will be in 50, 100, or more years.
Idk how many young people are buying coins, I suppose a poll of CT members would give some insight. And if someone doesn't get into coin collecting at say age 20, there is still possibility they will pick it up later in life.
I am unaware the hobby is going downhill, thank you for the information, I am always interested to know what trends are occurring. It appears to me the price is going in the opposite direction.
I have no doubt that supply is not in danger as of 2017, I was referencing @Gavin Richardson post of future speculation. I'm not going assume ancients will be as affordable today as they would be in a world with a population of 20 billion. Just my opinion.

 

There was an age poll of ancient forum posters and I seem to remember there being a wide spread of ages with a peak around 50.

 

Demand is only partly created by the number of people choosing coins over games. Part of the number is how much disposable income can be directed into the hobby (including those who look at my hobby as their investment portfolio). I once heard a 'name' dealer define a 'serious' collector as one who spent over $1000 on coins a year. I suspect that same dealer would change that number if asked today. The question is not how many teens are buying coins but how many of those teens will enter the hobby sometime in the next 80+ years to replace guys like me who drop dead during that time. No, it is not the number buy the amount that they spend. I admit being amazed at the number of some popular coins in those bags under the table and the price they get for owls and Alexanders and, now I'm told, Cappadocian kings but I usually find something at a show that was the only remotely similar coin there which makes the trip worthwhile.

My question to all is IF demand is sliding and if values of your collections are cut in half, will you cry over spilled milk or will you rejoice because you can now afford to buy that coin that is above you today? I would hate to see the coin market tank to the point that dealers could no longer supply my purchasing desires because they could no longer remain in business but the idea that there exists a dozen owls, Alexanders and Cappadocian kings for every collector does not bother me at all.

An old friend of mine (in both senses of the word old) tells of buying Roman denarii for melt value when he was young. He bought them then. They were not culls but just finds as they came. If there is no demand remaining, I'll take a few pounds.

 

I would expect the prices of Chinese and Indian coins to go up. (Already have quite a bit, no?)

 

I'm 48. It's good to know I'm close to peaking, at least with respect to something.

By the way, I didn't get into the hobby yet until well into my 30s. That phenomenon maybe more common than you think, given that people have to have a bit of disposable income to engage this hobby. Of course, that's true for any hobby, I suppose.