The Future of the Lincoln Cent - Buy Now?

What do you all think will happen to values of Lincoln Cents assuming we have a design change in 2009?

I have seen this subject touched upon in other threads involving investing, what should I buy? etc.

I'm not a huge Lincoln fan but have amassed several thousand and a nearly complete set of wheats over the years. Lacking the SVDB, 22 Plain and 55 Double Die.

This was never my intention but I have also always looked for "sleepers" and I think there are a lot in this series. If I see a semi-key cheap I'll buy it.
My main "sleepers" have pretty much been the 10-15 S coins, 22 and 24 D and Depression era coins. There are more.

What do you think will happen with these dates with a design change? I'm considering continuing my efforts with these dates in VG and higher while I can. I'm NOT looking into BU examples but nice circulated examples.

I did this years ago with 1927-S Standing Liberty Quarters as a sleeper and they have done very well even in the lowest grade.

Do you think Lincolns have the same potential?

 

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I think that there will be a temporary spike in price, but then it will die back down.

 

The advice I've received from various brilliant stock market analysts comes to mind:

Without exception, they give absolute guarantees that values will either go up, go down, or stay the same.

 

LOL

....and did you follow their advice?

 

Clembo:

If I were to speculate on the Lincoln Cent series with the prospects of turning a coin or two within a couple of years when the design change brings new blood into the series I would concentrate on mid-priced key dates such as the 14-D, the 09-S VDB, the 22 No D, the 55 Doubled Die, and the 72 Doubled Die. I would find a lower end group of these coins in conditions around VG to Fine.

I personally think it's a can't miss and here's why. Lincoln Cents are the king of the modern series. Many enter the hobby through this series, there are variety collectors within this series, and there is enough depth within the series for collecting by several different levels of collectors. Beyond this, there is the whole red vs. red brown vs. brown thing. Attracting a diverse type of collector to the series helps create a strong demand for the coins. I think that design change is a time when exponential growth can happen as far as the demand for coins in the marketplace.

The key dates are always going to be easy to sell and therefore a real store of value vs the 1927-S that the dealer doesn't feel is worth a premium. The real trick here IMHO is actually pulling the trigger and selling them while they are hot instead of watching the value go up and trying to find the absolute top.

this is all again JMHO, ramblings of a madman if you will...

 

My opinion is that all of the Lincoln semi-keys and keys will go up alot in price either just before the new design change or very soon after. There will be an ever increasing demand from type set collectors to fill these spots in anticipation of the prices jumping up because of the change. I, like codydude, believe the prices will certainly rise and they may fall again but I dont believe to the levels they are now. The values of these semi-key and key Lincolns have always risen in price and they will continue to do so, anniversary or not. Years ago, I bought a 1909-s vdb in Fine for a little over $100 dollars. Just a few days ago I purchased my second 1909-s vdb in AU53 certified by PCGS for $1300 dollars. Pretty soon you wont even get this coin in a grade of Good for less than $1000.00.

 

I'm not so convinced. Take a look at what happened with nickels after the new designs were issued. Or quarters for that matter. (NOTE: I'm really not sure what happened with these, thus the post)

 

mikenoodle,

You make some vey good points here. Problem is I'm looking at the semi-keys not the keys. Will the keys go up? Without a doubt IMHO. Just not going to put out cash that I don't have.

Indianhead,

I think you may have nailed it as well as codydude815. I figure they'll rise then fall but not to current levels. Not looking for fantastic gains in semi keys but a gradual rise that may end up being consistent.

Ardatirion,


I like nickles more than cents but they just don't have the popularity. Hence no great rise in values but I still collect them.

hontonai,

As usual your post is basically useless in regards to the original question.

 

clembo:

As a percentage of $ invested, you can bank on the keys. I don't believe that the semi-keys will see the movement that the keys will, and therefore won't as likely pay off and even if they do, won't do so to the same degree. If you were going to invest $300 in 5 semi-key coins, then buy 1 $300 key coin. The same investment, but a much better return IMHO. And after all, isn't that what you're talking about?

 

i hope that happens. if that does happen, we can get together a bunch of wheat cents, and sell them at a high price. and when the prices go down we can buy the same number we had, but still get a profit!

 

1. They sure made a lot of lincolns. Even the keys have mintages that wouldn't qualify them to be keys in other series. And the semi-keys are in the millions.....

2. Keys are only keys because they're "key" to completing the collection. The Lincoln collection is HUGE. It also appears that "key" and "semi-key" hoarding is starting to become the thing to do. Just go on any coin board and you'll find threads on the subject. What concerns me is that when these "investors" have drained the market and I suddenly have to pay $100+ each for several coins in a series to complete the collection , I'm not going to do it. And I suspect there will be many others. Suddenly, the "keys" arent' "key" anymore and demand goes down. The mercury dime set is ruined for me because I know I will never pay $1000 for one coin - ever.

3. I'm guessing there'll be a metallic change as well as design change in 2009, so this would also increase collectability.

4. There are gadzillions of wheaties out there in almost every house in America. I think what is "semi-key" now can and will change as new things come to light - especially if prices rise and people start breaking open the mason jars.

5. Most of this thread is talking about a quick buck in 2009. That's probably quite true. But I'm guessing the long-term isn't looking too good for the lincoln. When the cent disappears from circulation at some point, I think that it will eventually become a curiosity-type coin like the 2 cent coin, 3 cent coin, etc. In the future when they disappear from circulation, it's just too many coins to buy. You don't "dabble" in lincoln cents.

 

Regarding the Lincolns cents, I believe that they will react the same way (although earlier) that happened with the Washington quarters, pre-states dates.
When they first announced the states quarters program I rushed to finish the 1932-1998 set, including proofs & silver proofs, in as high a grade as I could afford and/or find.
I then added additional pieces 'just because'.
My #1 set includes 1932 S in AU-55, cost $75, current value= $325
1932 D, AU-50, cost $130, current value= $600.
I added a total of #7 1932 D's, all grades from VG to AU, and the Au was the only one to break $100 in cost.
plus #8 1932 S's, from G-4 to AU, the AU only cost $75.

So, do I think that the Lincolns will follow the trend?
Yes, in fact I have already picked up #5 1909 S, from F-12 to VF-30; and #4 1914 D's, from G-4 to F-12.

I believe that the greatest possibility for advance ment in this series is in the 'collector grades' and not the ultra high condition census grades.

Go for it, you'll be happy in five or six years.

 

IMHO, (let me say that I am a collector who only loves coins) The current craze in coins is not unlike the tulip flower craze in Holland a few hundred years back. It should give a good run at least ten years and then play out. I would concentgrate on all high grade Lincolns, Buffalos, Mercuries, Standing Quarters, Walking Halves and Peace Dollars that I could afford. If not only for the higher artisitc talents (Art Deco? )of the engravers. Twenty years would be a better prediction. I will teach my daugher about coins before I go. I have checked on a few coins that I bid and lost in 04 that are auctioning at four or five times what I bid in 04 and the winning bid was $210 or close dollar.

 

Key and Semi-Key in any series always seem to be fairly safe purchases. For the Lincoln Cent series - I believe the real sleepers are in the varieties; especially those that can be attributed using simple magnification. Mint marked OBWs dated 1989 and before will also produce a nice premium.

This is just my opinion.

 

just a:
I agree about the keys & semi-keys.
Coin World just had an article that the semi-keys were moving up, strong prices.

 

I think a complete design change to the cent will be positive for Lincolns. It could make the set more popular to collect because it will be possible to finish a set. Right now it's open ended. This might make good material go up in price over the next decade. If they just change the reverse but leave Lincoln on the obverse, I wouldn't expect much of a change in collecting habits.

 

Astute observation Frank. I agree that the coins to be sold will need to be more towards the lower end than the higher end, and the cost prohibitive component may push the keys in grades of as low as good into great coins for potential profit.

 

mike:
What so many people forget is that not everyone has thousands of dollars to spend on a single grade rarity.
A friend recently (last year) spend about $3,000 on a condition rarity (I believe it was a 1917 MS-67 red, or something like that).
Nice coin, but now all of the profit has been made.
I am totally opposed to the PCGS collectors' club that encourages the purchase of 'rarities' like MS-69 or MS-70 silver eagles for thousands more than the $15 to $20 that an MS-67 or 68 would sell for.

If you want a professional opinion, real the last couple of month's of Dave Bowers' column in Coin World, he echoes the same sentiment.
For that same $3,000 (actually less) my friend could have gotten a Barber quarter-- 1896 S in F, now that is a scarce coin, or a VG 1913 S quarter.
Both of those are truly scarce coins.

 

It sounds like what you're saying is that "everyone" has $3,000 to spend
for rare Barbers but not everyone has lots of money to pay for high grades.
No matter who says it, it tends to sound about the same way.

This isn't to say that I support spending lots of money on any specific coin.
People should buy what they like and what they understand. If you can't
understand why a coin only slightly better than another one should bring
a huge premium then don't buy it. If you don't understand why coins that
are worn and widely available should bring a huge premium then don't buy
those either.

Here's the way I look at it. I can buy a 1980 mint set with a Denver cent in
it that is just beautiful. Most 1980 mint sets have a disgusting, beat up and
often spotted Denver cent and finding a nice clean coin with a solid strike will
take looking at about 100 sets. That makes this a fairly scrce coin. It might
not be as scarce as a '95-W eagle in MS-70 but it's on par with a '13-S quar-
ter. The set will cost seven or eight dollars but you get most of that back if
you spend the rest of the coins.

Collect what you want and learn market prices. This means sell some coins
once in a while. But if you just want to make money with a view to the end-
ing of the Lincoln cent then it's pretty tough to beat a nice MS-66 1980-D. Of
course if you go out to buy this coin it will be a lot easier than looking at mint
sets and it will cost a little more. You might never get back the premium, but
it will save you the work of looking for mint sets. If you're collecting then look-
ing for the coins is even more fun and that's what the hobby is really about.

 

Not at all, $3,000 is a lot of money, but if you have it spend it wisely.
That is what I meant to say.