Finally found an ex Col. Green/E. Newman coin

One that I can afford, that I like, and that fits in my collection. I will have to pay little more than it sold for at the heritage auction (about $400) but not a whole lot more. Think it would CAC (it's graded xf40)?

 

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Wasn't that collection already reviewed by CAC before auction? I can't remember but I want to say it was

 

Yes, I think you're right.

 

Yeah, that seems likely. As some of them do have CAC stickers - makes sense they would have sent them all in. This one has some mottling on the reverse and it has a lower EAC grade - VF25. I guess that's not unusual but I don't know much about early copper. I have some other silver early American coins in this grade range. Fun to think where they've been - and the Col. Green connection is interesting. The son of the Witch of Wall Street! What a strange story! So far this is the best I've seen of these where it was a good fit for me. I'm undecided about keeping it or not though. It is a lot more money than the price lists - for what those are worth.

 

Frankly, 40 seems a tad generous for this coin. I would happily pay a premium for that provenance, and it's a slider from 35 at worst, but I could see CAC declining it at 40.

 

Excellent - kind of what I was thinking. Since I know so little about early copper, and you and others have helped me make some good decisions before - let me ask, is the granularity on the reverse (identified by Heritage in their description by the way) a sign of deterioration, the way it was minted or some other kind or reaction over the last 197 years?

 

I looked the coin up on Heritage. That's (IMO) environmental exposure adjudicated "market acceptable" by the TPG. This is likely a Randall Hoard coin - they weren't all Mint State - which picked up something from an adjacent coin or the barrel during its' years underground.

 

Ok. Thank you for taking the time to check that out. I looked up the Randall Hoard. No wonder there are so many mint state copper coins from that era. So, from what you say then, it seems unlikely that it is corroded in a way that would be a concern over time - unlike Verdigras - yes? From pictures of many coins from the era on heritage and other places this one seems a little more attractive that most - for whatever that's worth. And actually, I find mint state coins a little boring! Maybe I'll try it and see if I like it in hand.

 

I'd be completely unconcerned about it "progressing" in any fashion.

The overwhelming majority of known 1820's are not only Mint State, they're from that hoard. It's like the GSA Morgan sales in that sense. I feel the prices of Mint State Large Date 1820's are totally wacky in view of their (relative) commonality; they are by a wide margin the most common Coronet Head Cent in Mint State.

Small Dates, now, they're a little tougher.

As a general indicator, PCGS Auction Prices list 721 transactions of 1820 Large Dates, and only 133 of Small Dates. You're looking at a Small Date (the inside curl of the 2 is key). It's why I'm not trying to talk you out of it. They are, if anything, undervalued.

 

SuperDave - thanks, I noticed that there are very few small date 1820's for sale right now on the most common lists. Ii found one website that said the small date 1820 is the rarest variety for the year, followed by the 20/19 overdate. Of course overdates have their own fanbase, so......

thanks much for your perspective!

 

It won't CAC with that corrosion on the lower-right reverse. At least it shouldn't.

 

Your coin is a small date N-7 an R-2+ coin so it is fairly common. The rarest 1820 is N-14 R-5 which is a large date variety, After that comes N-6 then N-4 both small date varieties and also both R-5 but a little easier to come by than N-14. All three of the overdate varieties for 1820 are common, the rarset of the three is N-2 which is an R-2+. N-3 is R-2 and N-1 is an R-1

 

What you say is true I'm sure, but certified small dates are pretty unusual in comparison to large dates. There do seem to be plenty of raw ones around in a variety of conditions. Perhaps because they may not have been among the uncirculated coins in the Randall Hoard? PCGS estimates 2000 survivors of all types for the year - if the auction listings by small and large are any indication of the ratio of survivors, small dates are 16% of the total, or 300 of the 2000 survivors. If so, they would be more than an R-2. If there were 400 it would be more like an R-6. Lots of contradictory info, but I kind of like the auction record - it's concrete!

 

Further muddle. Ironically, PCGS estimates 2000 coins surviving and only 50 of those over ms60. Apparently this bears no relationship to the number of coins they have certified because:
Acccording to PCGS facts:

large date coins: 605 of PCGS certified 1820 large date pennies are AU 55 or over. 559 are ms60 or over and only 89 are AU 53 or under!

For the small date: 40 are AU55 or over, 27 of the 70 or so total are over ms60.
39 are 53 or under and 29 are 45 or under, which includes a few at the very bottom. So if you don't count the ms2 and 3's there are about as many XF or less as there are Mint state coins that have been certified. I suppose the inclination to certify higher grade coins is substantial for this sort of coin, but wow! That's the impact of the hoard. And there seems to be no doubt that the small date is far less common than the large date in general. BTW, at NGC, where I could find the number of n-7's that have been attributed - there are 7. So it's an R what? Certainly not an R2!

 

Just remember not every coin in a population report is necessarily unique. Some could have been crack outs trying for a better grade and some may actually be counted in both populations. Pop reports are good to see the grades where coins start becoming scare, but should not be treated as absolutes in terms of how many there are

 

From what I gather - around here and other places where it's discussed, crackouts seem most common in MS and maybe AU grades. I once cracked an xf45 and got it back as as a 58, but that's probably unusual. If that's so, it only reinforces the notion of the relative rarity of the small date vs the large date since so many of the large dates are in higher grades, no? And - give credence to the notion that the small date coins are deserving of a higher "R" rating!

 

Something to keep in mind...most large cents have never been slabbed--and of those that have been slabbed most were never sent for attribution. So the R-ratings for large cents have nothing to do with published TPG populations.

 

Interesting point and I'm sure that the majority haven't been slabbed - however, would you deny that certification percentages aren't at a least a random sample of existence or availability? Or do you thing someone who is thinking about certification says, yeah, this is large date, I'll try to certify it, but this one is a small date so I won't bother? What else do we have to go by in terms of existence or rarity? Empirical evidence? Ok, there are about three times as many large date 1820 cents available on Ebay right now as small date - certified, not certified, ungradible or whatever. Think it's an aberration? Try completed listings. - or - on Collectors Corner right now, there are probably 10, maybe 15 large date 1820's listed. How many small dates? Zero!

FWIW it seems really odd to me that people cling to something that is not backed statistically in any way - at least not so far - for whatever reason. I don't really care all that much, I may not even keep this coin and the rarity is irrelevant to why I like it - if I like it - but the issue of how people believe in rarity or not is really baffling! Somewhere, someone said this type of coin is an R-2 - the statistics I find don't back that up. It's just a fact so far - please - give me actual information that defends an 1820 N-7 small date is an R-2? Which according PCGS R ratings would mean there are many thousands of them in existence - or perhaps there is a special R rating system for old copper?

 

And - a quick check of 1821 pennies - a non-hoard year - shows double the survival rate (even though 1820 was a high mintage year) and almost no certified MS coins. Many, many more in the lower grades - much more like the numbers in the 1820 large date volume than the small date, which is miniscule by comparison in XF and lower grades.

 

Large cents are rated on the Sheldon scale--the same Sheldon who supplied the S number for the die marriages. An R-2+ die marriage has somewhere between 501 and 625 known examples...and yes, just because there are only 70 or so examples authenticated by PCGS does not mean that only 70 exist. The TPGs have never seen the vast majority of large cents because the vast majority of early copper collectors (although this is slowly changing) prefer to collect raw coins.

You have a nice coin. Is it rare? No, but I would happily keep it.