IMO this stuff is all well and good, and cited in proper APA format, but irrelevant to the point at hand. What I would like to see is enough consistency in the process to where I can submit the same coin to the same service 100 times and have it come back the same grade 95/100 times. That grade may vary per coin between services, but as long as there's such a level of consistency within each service, that can be accounted for. You can't easily determine that using a study of interrater variability of individual graders. And, IMO, we're never going to get to 95% reliability given the vagaries of grading as long as humans are the final arbiters of what goes on the label. I am not making an argument that machines should take over the grading process here, simply stating that I don't think humans can get to this level of reliability.
While it is true slabbing problem coins opened a new source of income for PCGS and NGC, it was not a new market. Problem coins were being slabbed by PCI (red labels) around 1992 or1993. Even earlier, before slabs existed, problem coins were graded by the first grading service INSAB in Washington DC. The fact and outrage that collectors were paying for NOTHING in the form of body bags forced the major TPGS to slab problem coins - which as you stated turned out to be a face-saving money maker.
What a novel idea! Ever hear of ANACS? Unfortunately, the strict grading to ANA standards did not reflect what was going on in the industry and that entity along with ANA Grading standards failed to meet the demands of the coin market and was replaced by PCGS and NGC. I've been told by a prominent professional grader/authenticator who the ANA tried to hire (he said no the first time) that for the first few years out in CO, ANACS employees knew nothing about eye appeal or the value of coins. After the big grading adjustment when 65's became 63's things got better but they lost the monopoly they should have had from the beginning as the ANA's grading service.
I'm not saying that Kurt, not in any way. Are there still raw classic coins out there ? Of course there are, but they simply don't exist in large numbers. There may well be tens of thousands of them, even hundreds of thousands, but so what ? On a percentage basis that's nothing ! Back in 2004 NGC and PCGS alone had graded 25 million coins, the vast majority of them being classic coins. Now add in all the other coins graded and slabbed by all the other TPGs. Today, the total number of coins graded by NGC and PCGS alone is approaching 80 million. With half that number being classic coins. Do you really think there are untold millions of classic coins out there having been sitting in collections for 4 or more decades, never having seen a slab ? We don't even have enough collectors for that to be true. But let's just assume there was a thousand collectors out there holding classic coins like that, that have never been slabbed. And I don't believe that there is for a minute, but let's assume there is. For them to have just 1 million coins, each one would have to be holding a thousand coins. Sounds pretty far fetched to me. So let's divide by 10, and multiply by 10. Ten thousand collectors, each one holding 100 classic coins that have never been slabbed. Again, sounds pretty far fetched to me. It is estimated that we have at best, maybe 300,000 serious collectors - total. Collectors who would be holding the type of classic coins you're talking about. Do you really think there's ten thousand of them who have been holding these raw coins for decades ? But even if there were, that's how many there'd have to be just to make up 1 million coins. Which again is nothing in the overall scheme of things. I'd also comment that a lot of those raw classic coins you see - came out of slabs. Astute dealers know all too well that cracking out previously slabbed classic coins and offering them as raw coins allows them to present them to the unsuspecting public as "fresh coins on the market" when there is nothing fresh about them. But that simple tactic allows the coins to be sold to those hoping to "hit the lottery". And I can assure you there is a huge number of people like that out there ! Bottom line, the number of classic coins in existence is a finite number. And there are no where near enough of them out there, still raw, to even come to close to supporting the TPGs. So they have no choice but to do what they have been doing - IF they want to stay in business.
You should know all about the "Technical Grading" that ANACS claimed to practice in Colorado even though the one authenticator from the DC office to go to Colorado had NO CLUE! My comments were based on the 1980's when the person I mentioned was offered the ANACS job the first time. He finally became an ANACS grader later when they "cleaned-up" their act, began to grade closer to market standards, published a grading guide and became the second TPGS.
I'll add this one rejoinder, Doug. In recent years, quite a few of the most "important" collections came out of my region. Almost without exception, until being cataloged for sale, these collections were all exclusively raw. One eight-figure catalog came out of southern Lancaster County and he was completely unknown even to the local "kings" of the hobby - Steinmetz and CNG. ...Orrrr, all the classic coins slabbed so far might have been resubmitted an average of four times each and it's the present number of slabbed classic coins that is the fiction. All I know is what I see - WAAAAAAY more desirable collectible coins out there NOT in slabs than in them. Then delete the overslabbed series that I don't give a rip about, Morgans and anything gold, and the percentage of raw gets even bigger. Bottom line: If you keep going back to the same places you've been going, you'll keep seeing the same material you've been seeing. It's pretty obvious. You have to get around; travel aggressively.
Kurt the issue you and I are discussing is quite simple and this is what it is - Do you realize that NGC and PCGS each slab over 100,000 coins a month ? And if half of them are classics, that's 100,000 classic coins every month - month after month year after year. I'll grant you, you came close with this - But that is exactly my point - they are slabbing the same classic coins over and over and over again. Why ? Because there simply aren't enough of them out there to support those numbers. There just isn't.
not to play devil's advocate here, but one thing absent from all of the calculations is the number of resubmissions.
I don't think you can come close to saying anything worth slabbing has already been slabbed. From watching estate auctions, it seems like most of the collections that hit the market are actually raw. The biggest customers of TPGs are probably auction houses, dealers and churners. For a person who wants to put a coin in their vault for personal enjoyment, there is no benefit to grading the coin unless you have drunk the TPGs kool-aid (believing a coin isn't a coin unless it has been put into a tomb with a number).
Your FIRST problem is that moderns are now WAAAAAAAY over the majority of coins slabbed. 50% classic is way too high. Your thesis here, Doug, is just plain flat wrong! There's TONS of stuff still out there in private hands. Some of it, the "owners" (heirs) don't even know about. Tons of it just in 1930's and 1940's vintage "boards". Pre-Whitman Blue stuff.
Absolutely correct! Anyone who thinks we are running out of classic coins, OR ANYTHING APPROACHING IT, has their head buried in the sand. It just isn't so, and they need to get around more. One other reason though, Pat. That other scourge on collecting - registry sets.
Ah, yes... gotta get those magic internet points . One of my favorite past-times has become watching estate collections get broken down and moved around between different venues.
So tell me, all you registry set jockeys, when your score goes up, does the software send out an automatic tweet? Social media - neither "social", nor "media".
We need to be out somewhere for a beer so I can join this conversation using the language I'd like to.
Estate coin auction in York Saturday. Majority of lots raw, but this one has more slabbed than usual, including some complete sets in plastic.
totally disagree... yes, Kurt... it is a medium and primarily used for social purposes. And to prove it... where do many Americans get their news now? Facebook! (sadly) as much of the stuff posted there isn't even true
I'd be pretty much incoherent by the time we reached Denver. Figures. I'm committed thru the end of February on a layaway, no extra bux. You guys have a lot of that there, though, and I intend to explore it going forward.
