Holy .... NGC just took PCGS behind the woodshed!

I think the biggest problem pointed out in this thread is that there is an unknown number of crackouts that have inflated an unknown number of pops. This will cause price deterioration if left unchecked across the board, so something needs to be done to prevent this. A census, an audit, coin "fingerprinting", regardless of if the specific coins mentioned in the OP are a victim of this. That's the logical next step, but will never happen because as was mentioned they make money off crackouts. But this system will eventually be unsustainable as the pops will continue to be inflated.

The other thing to remember is that TPGs are relatively new to the market as a whole. Combine that with the readily available information on the internet and you have more knowledgeable buyers or novice collectors getting into this game. So cherry picking data like this can lead to inaccurate conclusions based on one data set. Like was also mentioned, you need massive amounts of data across all grades and rarities to find any pattern. It could be that PCGS was protecting the value of these coins by undergrading them, crackouts inflated the grade, or simply more people have been educated that a 1995-W could bring a ton of money with the right grade and submissions exploded.

I know it's easy to think we have had the internet for way longer than five years, but even in the last five years the access and information has expanded exponentially. This has to affect the coin world just like it's affecting every other aspect of life. As far as PCGS playing games, I don't know. But Occam's razor dictates with that many wolves running the chicken coop there's gonna be some missing hens. Both TPGs tend to grade in a range, but I have seen inconsistencies across the board and even across submissions to the same TPG. Most of this can be attributed to human error (or not error, predilections).

 

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PCGS and NGC are not going away. The other TPGS will expire first. It does not take a genius to realize that except for the rarities (already slabbed) the vintage and modern US coin segment is DOWN. The economy is DOWN. Submissions of these coins is DOWN. IMO, NGC is in a better position to survive this downturn as they certify more different collectables than PCGS. And they are more customer friendly.

BTW, there is no state income tax in FL while CA is a hell hole of ...

 

Salzberg pulled a Trump and is just looking to increase his market share that was probably sagging.

IMO he just fouled his nest and with all the over-graded NGC coins he is just opening himself up for endless criticism. He is not objective.

 

A quote from the author:
"I have been a collector for virtually my entire life and I care deeply about our hobby. I think it would be irresponsible for me to remain silent about the damage that I think is being done."

If this is truly the case, then let's address the damage to the hobby done by slabbing in general. Before slabbing, every coin by date and mint mark had its own value - which is why prices (although we know they have always been inflated) in the red book would list down to even the lower grades. Mintages, date, and MM drove the values. It used to be fun looking in the Red Book for each coin to see what it was you had found.

That fun is forever gone b/c slabbing altered the focus of the hobby onto key coins so now everything in circulated condition is relegated to junk silver if its not a key. And then there came the designations of FSB, FBL, etc. that made the coins people recognized as "top examples" become second best and not so special anymore. Granted, I understand these coins are better strike, but I cannot help but feel people's perceived value of BU coins are lowered.

I think a more comprehensive statement form the author should be that he cares about the money made off of collectors from the slabbing mills. After all - the drop in value from PCGS he is claiming occurred also affects NGC slabbed coin values.

From the start, and like collectors outside the US used to say, I never saw a need to pay someone to grade my coin for me as most anyone reading the guidelines is/was capable. These companies knew the psychological and emotional "need" of humans to have an "expert's" stamp of approval, played on that, and made a business.

Admittedly I see two actual reasons for slabbing though.
1. It allows people who are not coin collectors to know the coin in hand is not just something to be dumped at the bank.
2. It will bring more profit to a person selling it b/c of the perceived value the plastic/label brings.

For reason 1, I have had around 6 total coins slabbed in case something happens to me and my family is wondering what to do with the coins.

 

That is an excellent post. I have been collecting for two years, at 70 years old. Your post made me long for the old days (pre-slab) where "Buy the coin not the grade) ruled. My reading old coin books seems to show that in 1976 coins were 1/10th their value today. So it took 40 years to move them that far.
They will continue rising as their population remains the same. If Trump jumps the economy, our coins will follow. But we all know that our heirs will get 50% or so of our perceived value, correct (unless they are very patient)?

 

IMO, by this paragraph, you have demonstrated a lack of understanding about the-good-old-days before TPGS. Perhaps you were just a coin roll hunter/accumulator rather than a numismatist. Additionally, using the Redbook for values... Nevertheless, your opinion is welcome and I am in agreement with parts of your post.

 

I hope someone (I don't have the time) will research this and post the results. That should convince anyone that grading standards have changed and the same coin can have several different grades based on its "market value" at the time and the TPGS who assigned the grade.

We all know stories of famous coins going from one MS to successive MS as it is flopped between each of the top two TPGS.

 

Isn't PCGS part of a much larger corporation (Collectors Universe) that certifies all sorts of collectibles not just coins.

 

Will someone please explain the logic behind cracking out a coin that is already graded at the highest known? You can't make me believe that there are duplicates in the finest known grades. I think some of you are just talking to be heard without thinking about what you are saying.

 

It's fine to trade uncertified coins when grading wouldn't change value much, but not when you are talking about real money in this hobby, billions of dollars of certified coins. All you need to do is go to a big coin show and see how bad grading is when it is in the interest of sellers to overstate and overgrade them.

 

As is NGC.

There are patterns notable in the graphs in the NGC article, indicating either a relatively consistent (but large) increase in the population at a given grade, or a significant jump in the last year-18 months. The 1912-S Nickel that baseball21 discounted in a previous post due to two rolls hitting the market all at once tripled in Pop from September 2013 to January 2016, and has added another 66% in the last year. In that same 3-1/2 year timeframe, the Population in MS65 has increased less than the Pop in 66 has in the last year.

It's quite possible that this is all explainable by repeated crackouts and previously-ungraded examples hitting the market. This, in an environment when PCGS is touting its' Secure Plus technology and ability to detect both counterfeits and coins it's seen before as an antitheft procedure....

Neither theory makes them look very competent.

 

I am thankful for all who participated in this lively discussion. It would be nice to get input into this thread, or another new one, from PCGS, NGC, ANACS, and other representatives so that they can clarify, embellish, refute, etc. the points being made.

 

Heh. PCGS rarely deigns to participate in their own forum, much less be seen on others. You want to see why I prefer NGC to PCGS? Just check out their forums. The one is a pleasant place to be, the other....not so much.

 

By NO means do I say this with disrespect to those that buy or have in their possession PCGS graded coins, BUT....the fact of the matter is this and even the PCGS guys are sadly admitting this fact:


NGC >PCGS


PCGS was once King...but IMHO it has lost it's edge and NGC has taken over. This too can change, but for me, world or U.S. coins I will ALWAYS go with NGC from now on.

 

It looks like I'm a little late to the party here.

 

This is something that we have discussed here in the past. PCGS call it what you want is not as consistent as NGC. From the small sample size of graded coins that I have looked at over the years it is obvious that with both companies you can see variances or errors in opinion on grades. If I'm looking for a nice MS 63 graded peace dollar the what I will call grade band for MS 63 is far greater for PCGS. You will find far more coins that should/could be MS 62 or MS 64 sitting in a MS 63 holder with PCGS than that of NGC. This plays into the crack out game as you have all mentioned and inflates the pop reports, why wouldn't PCGS do this its more money for them it also the reason why you see more CAC sticker-ed PCGS slabs you have greater odds of that low end 64 coin being in a 63 holder so of coarse its high end for the grade.

I will say that my recent submission to NGC for IKE dollars was brutal and have been wondering if they have now turned to under grading coins in that series.

 

What about the modern populations in which NGC coins are the only graded coins of the highest grade?
1963 1c ms67- http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/2887
1952 25c ms68- http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/5849
(and I'm sure there are more examples)

 

Here is how I think it happens:
(1) Someone achieved a top pop MS 67 coin; it is one of one and the highest valued via auction result.
(2)Others notice the high auction price and start cracking and resubmitting high end MS 65 and MS 66 examples...at least a few are successful, thus raising the population of MS 67 coins.
(3) Now with a higher population in MS 67 the coin sells for less at auction.
(4) The original owner of the MS 67 sees their coin is worth less now...time to resubmit...the problem is that the coin isn't MS 68 or 67+...the person cracks and resubmits 5 times with no luck...suddenly the Pop of MS 67 is 1 original + 2-3 additional upgrades frim lower holders + 5 failed resubmiscions of the original coin + however many resubmission of the 2-3 coins = 8+ coins
(5) Repeat the above over different series and you see how top pops can increase dramatically