Premiums on Double Eagles and Gold Coins Collapsing

I completely understand what you are talking about and where you are going with this. With gold going sky high, any numismatic value is getting clubbed like a baby seal. Right now, unless a gold coin is extremely rare, there's little point in bothering having them graded, aside from authenticity. I've got a bunch of full British empire sovereigns from the period 1900- 1928. It is extremely tough determining if they are worth much more than melt, and most US coin shops don't have a lot of experience regarding their value aside from bullion pricing.

 

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The TPGs weren't around in the 1970's when gold went up 20-fold, although the sustainable rise was more like 10-fold.

But I'll bet there was lots of gold coins being melted once they were worth nohting more than their gold bullion value.

There's an article from 45 years ago talking about how if the silver price had stayed higher after the Hunt Short Squeeze and not collapsed....lots of silver coins likely would have been destroyed. I'll try and find it.

 

Price ratios are often built on 2 factors;
1) relative scarcity of the two items being compared &
2) perceived value / need for the two commodities.

How much gold has been mined (& isn't tied up in contaminated low grade alloys / buried in landfills) versus silver? Calculations are a bit rough, but my understanding is that's somewhere between 1:8 & 1:16 (with 1:12 being the consensus guesstimate).

So, how much is gold overvalued based purely on traditional / symbolic perception? How much is due to practical barriers (import restrictions & security costs)?

 

C'mon Guys, let's use common sense, and forget all of the variables other than just the "melt value"!
I believe this isn't a subject that requires a Phd to understand, however I've been wrong before, so please pardon me!
I'm fallible, but understand the ratio discussed is simply the ratios of intrinsic/melt values/oz.-weight, not elevated imaginary market values.
If we round the current melt values of the 2 metals, Gold as $3125, and Silver as $34/per oz. weight, 3125 divided by 34 ~= 92 to 1, THE CURRENT SIMPLE MELT RATIO!
JMHO!

 

Better yet, if you want to compare supply, look at platinum. 170 tons per year vs. 3000+ tons per year for gold, but platinum's price is one third that of gold.

That tells me that "relative scarcity" actually has very little to do with price ratios.

 

Or, that platinum is ridiculously underpriced at the moment. I'm long silver and platinum.

Any idea why palladium has such a premium over platinum (despite annual production & stockpiles being similar to palladium)? One theory is that when palladium was slightly cheaper, it was selected for use in catalytic converters. Now, there's a patent / regulatory burden from switching to the cheaper catalyst.

 

It no longer does. As of a moment ago, palladium was at $1003, platinum was at $986. Less than a 2% difference.

 

Platinum and Palladium just can't get out of their way.

They have done NOTHING during the times recently that gold has gone up. The overhead of BEV's and the impact on the White Metals Group (WMG) appears to be too strong. They both went up a ton a decade or so ago and the've been burning off that bubble ever since.

I think best-case scenario is gold moves up and the WMG's get dragged up a bit. But I also could see them continuing to see demand fall and supply increase....would NOT be shocked to see a re-test of $500 or so.

 

It USED to. That was when Palladium was being held up by Russia.

 

Not intended to be political but I find it interesting and should have some impact on the subject of the thread.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/tariffs...-the-us-halts-abruptly-with-tariff-exemption/

 

And that's how you manage to tank the USD and equities and PMs simultaneously. Achievement unlocked!

 

Recessions will do that.

 

What kind of grades? The MS63+ sovereigns carry quite a premium. For lower grades, except for a few key years, they were minted in such high volumes that they were practically Bullion coinage.

 

I was talking about graded gold coins in general. The thing is, I readily admit I know ZERO about grading gold, so I'm pretty much a babe wandering around the woods without having a coin shop mentor to guide me on those. My grading skills are very much limited to Morgan dollars because that is really all I collect vs stacking, and I admit those talents are junior high-ish. I do have an eye for coins that are potentially underpriced but that as far as my talents go.

 

If you have knowledge about English sovereigns, please private message me, I forgot you work for ANACS, I would value a discussion and your opinions. The local guys do not have much knowledge about them.