Premiums on Double Eagles and Gold Coins Collapsing

Premiums on Saints are now under 10% as the gold price has crossed $3,000.

We're in uncharted territory.

Would like to hear from dealers and those active in buying/selling gold coins how the move to $3K has changed things from a few years ago and maybe even a decade ago.

 

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IDK.. small gold still getting high premiums, but then it seems the smaller the gold the higher the permium is the norm...

 

C'mon, How many MS65 Double Eagles have you purchased?
Let me guess! LOL
The purchasing problem isn't caused by the increased bullion value,
but generally just greed, and lack/interest, in having the commodity
and wanting to list.
I received 2 certified Gold Eagles yesterday, and tentatively will
receive 1 more next week!
I haven't seen many reasonable listings lately!
JMHO

 

That was always the case....I would think that even the premiums on fractional ounce coins would be falling.

 

I just bought a few for a family member and the price over bullion was less than half what I paid when gold was $2,000.

IMR, I didn't say there was a "problem" -- I just said that the rise in gold...and the high level...has wiped out what was already decade-low premiums (see chart).

What I find interesting is that higher premiums in the past were when the price of gold was LOW or FALLING....dealers wanted to maintain a certain profit level per coin and with the absolute price of gold low ($300 - $1,200)...the premium as a % was pretty high.

When things have reversed, I didn't expect those premium percentages to stay...but I thought they would level off in the 15-20% range. Looks like it's going lower.

You're saying the premiums for MS-65 Saints (absolute $$$ and percentage) that you were offered were HIGH ?!!?

 

Neat thread @GoldFinger1969 this is the first time I have ever been able to hold on to some gold. Mostly numismatic gold, not bullion. I got my ears open.

We have had these increases before. How long does it take for the collector value to reflect the same "value increase" or does gold value decrease and collector value hold. What if gold gets corrected too above $3000 in the long term? Does the collector value eventually go up the same percentage?

 

Maybe, for anyone interested, checking what Legend is paying NOW for CAC 65s and CACG 65s, would help with real time info, instead of worthless Mit The Charts stuff.

The Charts are pretty and all, but....useless in the real world of Show Me The Wampum Now.

The same useless Charts can be developed for Appliances, Automobiles, McDonalds Big Macs, etc.

And?

 

A panel discussion on current events should be a MUST at any big coin show, IMO.

You are right...I do wonder what Legend is paying and thinking right now, Charley.

I think the historical trend is useful. Just gives people perspective on what the $$$ amount and percentages were going back in time.

I think the chart I posted gives people an appreciation for just how low today's premiums are.

What is interesting is that when the premiums have narrowed in the past, the price of Saints AND gold bullion have both fallen.

So caveat emptor, I guess.

 

Ms. Sperber stated the amounts on the CAC Forum today, in the "Does a CAC or CACG add value to generic gold coins".

 

BTW, the U.S. Mint "Premium" for the 1 OZ. Gold American Eagle today is +/-
$847, depending on the time of day.

I encourage everybody to buy at least one, and preferably 2.

Signed:
PT Barnum Charley

 

As an outsider who never has or will want anything to do with gold coins, it seems logical that there's little correlation between spot price and collector value, until the spot value pushes up against the collector value. A particular date/mm/type doesn't get any more or less demand from true collectors just because the spot price changes. Gold price is going to drop again, maybe dramatically, and so who wants to pay a fixed xx% premium over spot price for "collector value" now? They'll be left holding the bag.

 

I still have some old Red Books that show a range of prices for "better date" silver Roosevelt dimes. I remember shelling out extra for the 1955 P-D-S, and I think I bought the 1949-S as well. Today? Unless you're looking for super-high MS pieces, it's pretty much spot across the board.

Wonder if I'll live to see dateless 1916 SLQs going for less than VF 1925's, just because of the silver they've lost in circulation...

 

But the price of gold always provides a floor for the coin.

Everybody can suddenly hate high relief coins....nobody can want one....but the price of an MCMVII High Relief Saint will NOT fall below the value of 1 ounce of gold no matter how much high relief coins are detested.

The anomaly we are seeing is that numismatic coins traded at a premium $$$ amount and/or percentage years ago. As the price of gold has doubled in 10 years or so, the percentage has fallen as has the absolute $$$ premium. That has happened in the past -- but not to the extent it has today.

Why an MS-65 Saint doesn't cost about $3,500 (~16% premium) which would be the same % premium when gold was $2,000 and the coins sold for > $2,300 I am at a loss. Maybe if the price of gold just sat at $3,000 for a year or two the price of the Saint would start to expand relative to the gold price and the premium would normalize somewhat.

I don't claim to have all the answers, but it is fascinating to watch.

 

Thanks for the heads-up !!

 

YW, of course.

 

Because nobody wants to pay $3500 for what will be a $2300 coin in a year or two. I think it's that simple. People only speculating on bullion push the "collector premium" towards zero when actual collectors are sitting it out.

 

I have noticed the half sovereigns are getting a lot more love than full sovereigns. The only reason I know is that full ones are all I have in gold. I suppose a more affordable coin drives the market harder, that's all I can gather.

The high price of gold seems does not seem to have a correlation to gold having numismatic value either. The metal value seems to be shrinking premiums on collectables. That's just my guess, I'm no seasoned expert.