The Currency Market Overall...Bullish, Bearish... Where Are We ?

I mentioned in another thread that I added another edition of a U.S. currency book with pricing. I realize the prices are just an approximation but they are better than nothing. I find comparing the prices for the same U.S. bills 7-10 years apart instructive to see what has happened in the past.

It got me thinking....what HAS been the trend in U.S. currency/bill prices the last 15 years or so since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09 ? I know for coins we had a major bear market as evidenced by the PCGS 3000 Index which we have discussed at length on CT over the years. Went down sharply into 2020 and since has reversed.

Is there a price index for currency bills ? Does anybody know how the U.S. currency market has done over the last 15 years ? Prices up, down, or flattish ?

Based on my admittedly beginner level of experience and not someone who has access to The Greensheet or sees dealer prices frequently....it appears that except for certain "trophy" bills that most bills in the $500 - $15,000 range are FLAT or even DOWN the last few years, maybe going back 10-12 years. I noticed in the HA auctions that bills coming up for re-sale for the first time in a decade or bills similar to one which set the high-water mark...are going for LESS or at most about the same price.

Unlike coins (which can rise up with PM prices providing a floor) I didn't see any evidence of a bull market, outside of that nice rise in Large Denomination Currency lower-grade bills that we saw in 2020-22 by new buyers during Covid.

Any thoughts from the veterans out there ?

 

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It has to correlate to the confidence in the paper dollar? I'd rather put my money towards metals in a time like this. I put away crisp bills, star notes etc. They are the first to go when money gets tight, at face value. It's time to make our paper worth it, or we will have to go back to a gold standard. If my bank provided it, I would take my G in 5 dollar pieces. Hope I didn't hijack the thread.

 

Coins on my area are selling like crazy.

 

No, don't worry about that.

But I think the price of valuable bills has nothing to do with the value of the dollar per se.

We know that coins tied to gold or silver have moved up as gold has doubled in 6 years. That's what I am trying to deciper with the currency market.

I think the fact that it is a NARROWER and SMALLER hobby than that for coins, and given the huge volumes printed for many bill series (billions instead of millions for coins)....it's tougher to see prices move up except where strong condition rarity comes into play.

 

Paper gets burned there is no slug there to get your money back.

 

Let me put this simply. I have a single gold certificate ($50) in my possession. How has the price of the paper bill compared to the value of five gold $10 eagles over the years?

 

I'm going to say lagged bigtime.

There are simply more bills available for most series than was the case for coins. The latter had millions struck, sometimes less...the former sometimes BILLIONS !!

 

I have definitely seen a uptick in the value of $500 and $1,000 high denomination notes in the problem free category which I would say 55 and up even though high graded notes and EPQ examples may still have staining or some discoloration they may be less desirable for a variety of other reasons current price in the above grade, $500 ( $ 3,000 ) $1,000 ( $6,000 ) just a couple years ago they were half that.

 

Very astute observation.

I noticed that Greensheet article talking about in early-2021 how the Covid buyers were buying raw and medium-graded Large Denomination Bills. Prices rose 30-40% in like 18 months.

 

I have picked up a few large denomination notes both in $500 and $1,000 in the past couple of months, looking at either a Kansas City or San Francisco
but ideally like to find a Minneapolis lowest production by far across the board 1928
1934 and 1934A but would expect to pay a nice premium.