Saw a coin on the fleaBay, 1884S, coin with huge jumps in value based on conditional rarity. Coin was graded PCGS AU55. Coin hammered for about $250 more than NGC suggested priceguide. I didn't see anything special about it, not sure if resubmission would get it a 58, in fact, might grade lower than 55. The rub is, if it gets the kiss of the grading gods and comes back at 58, it's suddenly worth $1500 more? Who here plays this game?
Not unless it finds a buyer. If, as you say, there's a chance that it could grade out professionally at less than 55, it doesn't sound like much of a worthwhile gamble to me. Though I suppose that depends on factors like eye appeal. I know nothing about VAM varieties. Could there have been something in that regard which boosted the price?
Here is a link if still active. I think it's what it's graded at if not lower. Click the arrows to get rid of the "sold" restricted views. There are several photos, including trueview. https://www.ebay.com/itm/356461791850
1884S doesn't even have a single Top 100 VAM. I think it's all about the condition, and it's a huge variable.
You really shouldn't ask me that. I am utterly astonished at some of the darts thrown at the board by all the TPGs. It's not UNC, that's all I got. Details seem lightly worn, and the lack of luster kind of kills it. Might have been dipped.
Decent looking coin. Looks pretty solid for the grade, in my opinion. But is there upgrade potential to 58, to use the earlier example? Maybe? I dunno. It's not a game I would play, simply because of the expense and hassle a crackout and resubmission would entail. I do note, that in looking through the PCGS auction archives for 1884-S dollars between AU55 and AU58 grades, that one sold for $5.25. LOL Which sorta made me do a double-take until I saw the date of the auction.
Why use NGC priceguide for comparison on a PCGS coin? I mean, nothin' wrong with that, I suppose, but I'm just curious.
Lazy maybe? It's a decent benchmark. I know it's not wholesale. How often is Graysheet updated? The LCS'ers still pull out a crusty old fleabitten book.
You need to be a REALLY GOOD grader and even if you are right, if the TPG grader on the other side KNOWS that the coin jumps a ton in value (into a low pop census grade) then he may consciously or subconsciously view your crossing attempt as akin to trying to win the heavyweight championship: you have to knock the champ out. In other words, it's going to have to be a clear decisive knockout for the higher grade (unless it's already got a Green or Gold CAC which then makes it more likely but I assume those aren't present on a TPG coin). No, I don't play this game, it's above my pay grade.
If it makes any sense to you, I lose on grades more than I win, but I win more dollars than I lose . . . it may take a little thinking about it to unnerstand.
I think I understand. You look for deep discounts that go unnoticed otherwise. That's where the $ is made. I'm not looking to sell anything yet, but I do love a good deal.
I seldom to never use Greysheet myself, and will typically use two or three online references (Numismedia a lot), and on rare occasions will pull the crusty old fleabitten Redbook off the shelf. So yeah, I get it.
To use a rather low budget example of that, I always liked the VG8 to F12 spread on Barber halves, when I was doing those in a Dansco. I looked for pieces priced in the VG range that had a nearly full LIBERTY on the headband. I scored a few Fine coins for VG money. At the time, there was a decent jump in value over that spread. Not that I was doing it to make money. I was just trying to be a savvy collector. Maybe it worked, because I did OK when I later sold that collection (which was pretty far along but not 100% completed).
NGC says $525 but PCGS says $1000 and Numismedia says $990. There's your answer. The buyer wasn't hoping it was AU58, they were just getting it for $200 cheaper than the price guide they were using.
I'll give you a great example . . . I bought a better date $20 Lib in a PCGS AU55 holder. The coin is a higher grade AU58 every day of the week, with a strong shot at mint state. Coins like this bring very strong money, as few are graded, and pleasing original examples are in very short supply. I could have cracked it and sent it in raw for an upgrade, but I felt it would almost assuredly get a gold CAC sticker. Below are the photos of the coin . . . Paying full UNC money for this coin in the AU55 holder would have felt foolhardy to me, but spending full AU58 money felt justifiable. Fortunately, I felt it was affordable, and jumped. Boy, am I glad I did . . . In this date it's the only coin so-stickered, all grades considered. My point? Even though this is not a Morgan Dollar, it underscores the fact that while upgrades are less likely to be awarded to better date coins where large price increases will weigh on the minds of the graders, there are coins out there which justify taking the chance, but not routinely!
Around 700 is common for this coin recently at auction. There are a few outliers. But in the past couple of years both NGC and PCGS coins have sold at that amount.