Guess the Price; what's a reasonable markup for coin regraded up one notch?

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by calcol, Dec 10, 2016.

  1. calcol

    calcol Supporter! Supporter

    The free-market answer is as much as possible. Another answer along the same line is the amount in retail price guides for coin in the new grade.

    It gets trickier from both a buyer's and dealer's perspective for pricier coins that are thinly traded, like rare varieties or patterns. Following scenario actually happened: A dealer buys a copper coin for $10K in an auction. It's PCGS 65RB with a CAC sticker. Dealer has it regraded, and it gets a 66RB, but CAC won't sticker it now. It's thinly traded, so price guides are useless. There are no recent auction records of a 66RB; about 20 years ago a couple sold for $10K. 65RB's appear at auction every 3-4 years and in the last 15 years, have brought $6-10K. A few 65RD's and 66RD's (top of pop) have been sold, but for much higher prices than 65RB's and 66RB's.

    Assuming you had the money and wanted the coin, how much would you pay for the 66RB, or if a dealer, how much would you ask?

    Later, I'll post the dealer's asking price and other info. It's still available. And no, I'm not considering buying it, just happened to see it in an auction and later in the dealer's inventory.

    Cal
     
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  3. Seattlite86

    Seattlite86 Outspoken Member

    I'd shoot for $10k ;)
     
  4. Cascade

    Cascade CAC Grader, Founding Member

    Too many generalities but I'll play... $60k
     
  5. gronnh20

    gronnh20 Well-Known Member

    Not enough info. If I was selling based on that info $14,500.
     
    Paul M. likes this.
  6. fiddlehead

    fiddlehead Well-Known Member

    It's an interesting, and obviously subjective question. I've found that CAC coins will generally bring about one grade higher money than run of the mill coins of the same grade - and are much easier to sell (for good reason IMHO - given the problems buying from pictures, etc), so I would think it's value isn't much different at 66 than it was at 65 w CAC. A more important question - would the seller reveal that he/she had submitted the coin to CAC and it didn't make it? I always ask that, and sometimes I believe the answer - sometimes I don't - but it is reassuring when a seller acknowledges that a coin failed CAC - it's one way for a seller to gain my confidence!
     
    Coinchemistry 2012 likes this.
  7. Coinchemistry 2012

    Coinchemistry 2012 Well-Known Member

    What are the 65 and 66 RD coins selling for?

    From a selling stand point, I would price it within a couple thousand of the full red coins and accept offers.
     
  8. SuperDave

    SuperDave Free the Cartwheels!

    I'm in a few bucks below that. Before contemplating the purchase offer, I'd become aware of the total current Population in 66RB, as well as any growth in that number over the last decade (and I'd look for a decrease in 66RD, just in case). I'd also want to know what the Pops look like in BN, to see where I'd stand at 66BN if the coin turned. For that latter reason I'd also consider what was extant in RD, in case they turn in the future and increase the Pop in RB.

    In no event would I go more than 50% over what I felt a fair figure today in 65RB would be. That might change if it were a Pop 1/0 (if I read your post correctly it isn't Pop 1) with no BN's as high as 66.
     
  9. gronnh20

    gronnh20 Well-Known Member

    Thanks for writing(typing) what I didn't want to do. It would have taken me half the night and I probably would have gotten wordy. Is gotten even a word?
     
  10. Coinchemistry 2012

    Coinchemistry 2012 Well-Known Member

    Gotten is the past participle of the verb to get.
     
    gronnh20 likes this.
  11. calcol

    calcol Supporter! Supporter

    Here's the current pop data:

    PCGS:
    BN: 61:1; 64: 1
    RB: 61: 1; 65:3; 66:4
    RD: 66:2

    NGC:
    BN: 0
    RB: 64:1, 65: 2; 66:1
    RD: 66:1

    There were a couple of 65RD's sales in the past; presumably they (or it) graduated to 66RB or 66RD. A 65RD sold for about $20K about 15 years ago; a 66RD sold for about $30K about 10 years ago. Those were the last RD's sold at auction.

    Neither service has graded a coin of this type at less than 61. It's a 19th century coin. Some of you now probably have a good idea what kind of coin it is.

    Cal
     
  12. Paul M.

    Paul M. Well-Known Member

    Depends how long I've held the coin, how long I can stand to have $10k tied up in a "thinly traded" coin, what my clientele is, etc. I could easily see wanting out of the coin at a small profit (maybe $12k) so I could get into, say, a solid G/VG Chain Cent, or something else of that nature, if $10k is a significant amount of money to be tied up, and I don't think I can sell it in less than 6 months. OTOH, if my usual business is $20k and up coins, I'll gladly sit on it and wait for $17k or more.
     
  13. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    That's right. Gittin, gottin
     
  14. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    If it were me, and given the scenario you've described, I'd put it up for $12,000 and cross my fingers. And if it sold, I'd count my blessings.
     
  15. calcol

    calcol Supporter! Supporter

  16. Coinchemistry 2012

    Coinchemistry 2012 Well-Known Member

    Harry's price doesn't seem unreasonable to me.
     
  17. SuperDave

    SuperDave Free the Cartwheels!

    There's an education about Heritage's imaging processes in there. The full-slab images plainly show a prominent (for a Proof) scratch extending southeast from the mouth, which the (diffused) images intended to show color do not. They also lessen the impact of the gouge between stars 4 & 5. Lovely coin, but I honestly don't think I'd go PR66 for it. That scratch - note how it jumps out in direct lighting - is a dealbreaker at 66.

    So is the price.
     
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