Does anyone save clad half dollars?

As will I but the reality is that I just do not believe that it will happen since the coins are as different as night and day.

 

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Most "CnClad Ike's in MS67 are 4 digit coins.

As for the "start fetching serious money" portion, I think that train has left the station but thats only my opinion based upon my money.

With the right push from the right people things could change. By that, I mean that there very well could be some MS68 CnClad coins resting in some obscure Federal Reserve Vault since, with the numbers minted, I am positive that not all US Mint bags have been opened.

But we'll never know this until the paper note jumps into the incinerator.

Make no mistake, there are thousands of unsearched US Mint bags of IKE's in the Treasury Vaults and the ONLY way they'll ever surface is by the widespread use of one dollar coins.

When and if that happens, things could radically change.

 

...which would make them an even closer parallel to Morgans.

In truth, if I had the disposable income I'd be seriously contemplating acquiring a few bags of those, especially the first three years of Philly issues which have no 67's at all at PCGS.

 

This isn't true.

They can be sold as bid but buyers expect them to be all nice BU's in sellable condition. Many coins straight from mint sets are ugly and are not desired by buyers. This includes about 30% of '72-P, 15% of '72-D, 35% of '73-P, and 25% of '73-D. If you take a lot of coins off the top then you'll have to take even more off the bottom to make good rolls.

The irony here is that all these put-together rolls are far nicer than bank rolls but buyers like bank rolls because they might have Gems and varieties. The odds of Gems is very very low.

I believe this is unduly pessimistic. One shouldn't expect to be able to save bags of circulating dollars and make a profit or to pay current retail prices for inferior coins and expect large profits. But the fact is you can set aside nice choice mint sets and mint set singles at such a low price that you could sell at a profit TODAY. If this series gets more attention in the future then there is a certainty that such coins would return significant profits.

The real question is one of simply will collectors ever wake up to the scarcity of nice clads. If they do then it's a whole new ball game because there will be no supply at all and onlydemand. It's a game of musical chairs where the music has droned on for 50 years now.

 

One hearstell but I'm doubtful there are any BU bags in storage. The mint has used FIFO accounting since 1972 that mandates that stocks are rotated. If there were any '77 and '78 bags in storage then I'd expect someone would go through and look for Gems but there's little reason to suspect this based on populations.

Gems are pretty tough in bank rolls or bags though this is a little less te for Ikes.

If you look you'll see mintages the lt couple years trailed off substantially. There were fewer 1977-P Ikes made than 1901-O Morgans.

 

While a factual statement, it doesn't represent the likely availability of each. There were about 700k less Ikes made than Morgans, but the survival rates are probably far, FAR apart.

MS 68 - Morgan 1, Ike 0
MS 67 - Morgan 5, Ike 19
MS 66 - Morgan 539, Ike 907
MS 65 - Morgan 3012, Ike 1480

Lower than that, Morgans will likely have much higher numbers, simply because there's still *some* premium (net of grading fees) for MS 64 Morgans, while none for MS 64 Ikes.

The premium disparity essentially ensures that MS 64/65 Morgans will be submitted, while Ikes probably won't. The population of sub-MS 65 Ikes is most assuredly coins that were submitted as MS 65/66 that simply had something wrong that the submitter didn't see.

As for the availability of MS 68 (and higher) business strike Eisenhower coins, I don't know. The fact that MS 68 Kennedy coins exist from the early 1970s implies to me that it's *possible* even if the sheer weight and clashing of nickel on nickel dollars would make it less likely.

Although the Treasury no longer allows banks to order Eisenhower dollars, the existence of the "Big Sky Hoard" publicized by Littleton implies that there *might* be sealed bags somewhere in some bank.

 

I think in the future (next 50 years) the clad Kennedy halfs will be as collectable as the Jefferson Nickels from the 30's-50's are now.

 

I don't really disagree with your post but it can leave some with the wrong impression. If you wanted to put together 10,000 1878-S or 1904-O Morgans all it would take is a few phone calls and you could find them at a 20 or 30% premium to bid. If you wanted 10,000 1973 or 1976 tI Ikes It would stand these markets on their ears and bid price would at least quadruple before you filled your order which might take months. Some Ikes can be found in this kind of quantity but not most.

This same things cuts across all the moderns; people aren't investing, marketing, or setting coins aside. If a market sprang into existence today, it would take months for the pipeline to supply this market to fill. This "pipeline" would absorb all the available supply of many coins. Acquiring quantities of coins like nice attractive '82-P nickels is only possible because only a handful of people are doing it.

Buit the real difference here that people just don't know is that some coins including most classics were made to a very high standard. Most 1878-S Morgans look pretty good so it doesn't matter as much if you get a nice one or a not as nice one. 1976 tI Ikes were made to no standards. Even though they were minted in only tiny quantities almost the entire mintage was ugly and now most are lightly circulated. Most of the surviving Uncs are ugly as well. Only about 8% of the mint set mintage are nice ch BU or better! Now days many of these are tarnished if they haven't been removed from the packaging. If youwanted to acquire even a few hundred of this date in nice attractive MS-64 it would stand the market on its ear.

These "markets" are just this thin. There are thousands of collectors poking through what left of the coins made in the last fifty years that have managed to survive. There aren't enough coins left to make a mass market like there is with all the older coins unless collectors are satisfied with circs and some very ugly uncs.

 

Again, you're comparing across completely different spectrums, though. The bid for a "BU" Ike is probably $2.75 or so. Being honest with myself, I think that's a fair number. If you quadrupled that to $11, you're still looking at $110k to acquire your 10,000 1977-P Ikes. Now, if you tried to fill the same order for 1904-O Morgans, you'd likely still cause some sort of a run up in price, let's say a 35% bump in the bid, as you'd be attempting to acquire 3% of the estimated BU survival population in one shot. Reasonably speaking, you could probably acquire about 40% of your order at the current bid and the other 60% at a premium bid. Your average acquisition price would be $42.35 or $423.5k for 10,000.

Now, all that said, I doubt an order of 10k BU Ikes would quadruple the bid. It *might* move the bid 25%, and even that would be pushing it.

Now, if we're discussing "gem" quality coins, that puts us in another direction.

10,000 Gem 1904-O would account for 20% of the field. That would likely see bids *also* quadruple or possibly quintuple (or higher!) for the Morgans in question.

Yes, you're right that there wouldn't be enough PCGS MS-65 1977-P Ikes to fill the order, initially, but the presence of a buyer would result in people bulk subbing MS-64/65 coins to get the payoff. After all, the reason no one subs as often now is the risk/reward of 65/64 simply isn't worth it. Even if we looked at 1973-P Ikes, you're still *only* seeing a 4.5x markup for 65 over 64. Given most bulk orders target around 7-10% success, you'd be looking at a doubling of the bid likely being enough momentum to get people to start making subs again. As for the 1976 type I ... that's like making a comparison to VAMs for certain Morgans. If you're going to draw on DIVA or varieties for your argument, you need to make the same trade off with VAMs for Morgans.

 

I really don't know where you can acquire quantities of Ike even approaching these levels. Some of these dates do exist in bag quantities but dates like the '76 tI probably do not and of course the '73's never existed in bags. Most of the coins to fill such orders would have to come from mint sets and youmay not appreciate just how few mint sets survive and how thin the market is on these. The big wholesalers who buy the sets periodically cut them up and sell the singles so I doubt any of them ever have more than a few hundred of the mint sets in stock. Dramatically higher prices might have the opposite effect of increasing their supply as some would be sellers would hold onto them for even higher prices. If a '73 mint set can go from $9.25 to $40 virtually overnight dealers might decide to hold onto their sets rather than ship them. It's not like the extra $30 on a few sets is going to make them rich.

My guess is that you could offer 50% over bid and you'll get about 500 sets and a 50% increase in bid. When you increased your offer 50% again you'd get only another 300 sets and a 60% increase in bid. I don't see being able to fill an order for 10,000.

It's far far worse with the '76 type I than the '73. Only about 5% of mint sets have a decent dollar. By decent, I just mean a coin you can send out to fullfill an order for a "BU" and not come back. '75 mint sets are even tougher than '73 and you'd need 200,000 of them!!!

The coins are far tougher than Morgans and there are lots of Morgans in bags that can be purchased at the right price. Only some Ikes are available in quantity. We can't see that some are not because the demand is so weak that the miniscule supply is more than adequate.

 

Some of the Kennedy's are just as tough as the Ikes. Try finding nicely made and well preserved '82-P's for example. But almost all of them are very tough in Gem because they are scattered to the four winds. Dealers don't have hoards of nice coins lying around and there are few collectors.

These aren't rare but the demand isn't there.

 

I really do wish you'd stop making direct comparisons to the rare dates in the series after starting the discussion with 77Ps. In any event, why would you offer 50% over bid to start? Logically, you'd start out under the bid or at bid, which would likely get you about 500-1000 coins. Then you'd offer slightly above bid, but well below the ask. This would probably get you an additional 2500 coins. You'd then be 35% done and could start buying open on the ask. This would likely net you another 5000 coins, which leaves you needing 1500 coins. At this point, you can be patient and likely fill the order over time or offer twice ask and fill the order with people thinking you made a mistake. Yes, you're right that it's unlikely a single dealer will have thousands of these to pull from, but individual coin shops that have the sets in their $3-$6 bins (yes, I've seen them at shops for below face) would be more than happy to sell for $12. I see no scenario under which you'd be paying $40 for Mint Sets to get BU coins.

1976P Type 1 total mintage 4 million
1973P total mintage 2 million
1977P total mintage 12 million
1976P Type 2 total mintage 113 million

There are 2600 MS 64/65 1973P in the PCGS population. I'd say about 33% of that must have been cracked, so let's say 1700 PCGS. NGC shows 950 in their census, apply the same 33% and we get 600 NGC. So, 2300 already in holders for 64/65. I highly doubt that the 2300 represents even 10 percent of the MS 63 and better coins, so there's at least 25,000 examples out there. Since you want 10,000 of them, I can't imagine moving the market *that* much, since most uncirculated coins in private collections would be MS 63/64, which would meet our requirements, but not be worthwhile to submit. Remember, the presence of MS 66 examples killed the MS 65 prices. I'm sure that if someone got a few MS 67 examples onto the PCGS population, that would result in a *lot* of MS 66 becoming available at 20% (for the best) - 70% (for the average) below current pricing.

 

BTW, you can pick up 1973 mint sets for $8-$10... probably less, but if you want a constant supply, $8-$10. Given a 10% success rate on 64/65 submissions, I'd say at least 40% (probably closer to 70%) of mint sets would have coins that grade MS 63 or higher. So, you'd spend $250,000 for 25,000 sets yielding 10,000 MS 63 or better examples. Of the remaining 15,000, you're probably looking at 75% being MS 62 or better, which means you probably have another 2,000 MS 63 coins in there, if you're willing to pay for the subs on 20% success rate.

As I said before, I understand your point that the supply is thin, but I contend the supply is thin due to a lack of a market. Even if you acquired your 10,000 examples in whatever grade, you'd end up losing your shirt, as the demand would still be lacking. The moment you stop buying, the bid would collapse and the ask would eventually dwindle back down.

 

There is no parallel between Clad Ikes or Kennedy's and Morgan dollars whatsoever and no reason to believe there will be in any timeframe where it will matter to anyone reading this topic. The Morgan dollar is substantially an "investment" coin with much of the supply owned in large numbers by non-collectors in multiple as a silver substitute. There are certainly individuals owning this coin even for single dates like the 1881-S by the hundreds and maybe even thousands.

There is absolutely no prospect that any base metal coin will ever be owned in this manner. MS-67 and MS-68 coins in these two series may certainly do well but its for the same reason as it will be for other (near) "grade rarities".

 

I'm so sorry for your loss.

 

Kennedy half dollars are fun to collect, and you can spend what you want on them. A general collection of BU and proofs for a few hundred dollars or for a top set you could have over $ 100,000 tied up in it.

 

I highly doubt this. Think of simple circulation of the coins. The reason pre-50s Jeffersons are collectible has to do with survivor population. The Kennedys were basically never circulated. Everyone hoarded them (yes, even the clad ones), and the post-70s ones were essentially manufactured for collectors. Yes, there might be demand for high-end issues, but supply and method of distribution essentially ensures that anything lower than MS 66/67 for 70s Kennedys and MS 67/68 for post-70s will be viewed as marginal and possibly worth more in face than collectible value.

 

Most of your numbers look pretty plausible but the idea of being able to pick up 25,000 1973 mint sets is not. The kind of interest necessary toi even get 2000 sets is likely to increase the bid on these. Wholesalers need a steady but small supply of the sets coming in. Bis is set accordingly. Trying to siphon off 25,000 sets even in a years time would dry up their supply and result in them raising prices.

Yes! This is exactly my point. Supply is very thin and it must remain thin or price will increase dramatically.

 

This is the great thing about all moderns; you can collect them even in Gem condition on a shoestring and they are challenging enough to be fun. If you want to spend money then do your homework or you could get burnt. A lot does depend on grading and if you're paying huge premiums for inferior coins you might lose your shirt. Collectors usually don't have this trouble because they learn their series.

 

You missed my point, in that case. I'm saying the supply is thin due to the LACK of a market. You're saying demand is thin due to the lack of a market. If you create a market for the coins, the supply will increase, as dealers will be willing to acquire these from collectors for more than face value.

I guess the best way to explain this is a velocity driven equation...

In a scenario where supply is thin due to a lack of market:

ΔM => ΔS, where M is the size of the market, and S is the velocity of supply growth

So, as your market increases, so too will the speed at which the supply grows.
As your market decreases, the speed at which supply grows will also decrease.

If you start offering bids, you start to develop the perception of a market. Initially, the supply will be scarce, until dealers start to believe a market is actually formed, then supply will be released in great quantities. Once a market is established, supply becomes steady enough to maintain demand. If the market is short-term (you're the sole buyer), then the market will collapse once you start buying, and dealers will stop buying. Eventually, they'll start marking down prices, taking losses on their inventory or they'll be forced to close and liquidate anyway.