I Know it's Subjective But If You Had The Money....

It's Jon Amato's 'The Draped Bust Half Dollars of 1796-1797'. It's a whole book about the series. He documents all the known survivors as of 2012 (roughly 270) in a census with pictures. He also traces each survivors provenance of owners and auction sales with prices as far as he can.

Many of them have their lineage traced over 100 years. A good fraction have auction prices going back 50+ years on the same coin. A few have auction prices from pre 1900.

I just chose 1 example at random. One could look at basically any coin's price history in the book and see a dramatic increase in price like the one I quoted.

 

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No, because not all collectors are primarily buying with this intent. I have never paid more than $1200 for a coin precisely because I do not "invest" (in other words, speculate) in coins and this is the maximum I have been willing to spend to this point on a single coin. I am certainly not buying coins intentionally with the intent of losing value but I don't buy them to make it either.

I buy the cons I do because it's what I like. If I was primarily interested in future resale or if it was a lot more important to me than it is now, some of the series and coins I have bought I wouldn't own now.

 

Per my last reply, same here. But then, this is because if you buy coins like your avatar or most of those I collect, they are a lot different than the ones bought by those who consider coins "investments".

There is a topic on the NGC forum where one contributor insisted I was "investing" even though I told them I was not and presumably because by their definition, I am. In other words, because by their definition, there is no distinction whatsoever between "investing" and speculation.

Of course, if I bought what are actually hugely inflated and disproportionately over rated US coins as "investments", I would only be able to justify it with the same rationalization because no impartial analysis of their relative numismatic merits would support paying these prices. I would buy the same coins in slightly lower grades for a (miniscule) fraction of the price.

 

Unlike most other US high priced coins, its one I really like and consider a great coin but I don't see that it has particularly significant upside and if I am wrong, I would definitely buy the higher grade coins instead of the average circulated grades or lower which is the opposite of what I would do for most US coins. My recollection is that the lower grades in particular have already appreciated substantially since I became a collector in 1975, far more than most.

If I was going to buy this type of coin, I would compete for the Rudman 1732 Mexico NGC AU-58 pillar 4 reales w/out assayer. The auction is this Thursday and it's a coin that I think has more or a lot more going for it numismatically, might come up for sale once every 20 years, will sell for a fraction of the price and will appreciate a lot more.

 

1913 Liberty Nickel. Always popular, always will be, always will be wanted by some rich dude or Laura Sperber.

 

She always seems to get all the expensive stuff!

 

Laura and her partners have the bucks to do it.

 

I try and never over pay and I because my collection consist of mostly modern stuff I can wait on the next one to show up for sale where as those who collect rarities may not have that luxury. I have a lot of stuff that I could easily turn a profit on and probably nothing I would loose money on. I enjoy the hobby even though I don't have any 4,5,or 6 figure coins. I have a lot of silver that I paid 7-9 times face and could sell for 15 times tonight. I have hundreds of OBW rolls bought at face that would easily sell for double or triple that now. I buy a lot of common stuff to put up for the Grand Kids and I give it to them every birthday, holiday, and just about any time they ask for some coins. (They are ages 2,2,and 4) My collection isn't about investing but I try to use good judgment when buying coins and I've never sold any so I may not make any money ever.

 

The price is not a factor. If you bought it, you investment in it.
Intent has nothing to do with it. Same story. You bought it, you invested.
Saying it's not is a bunch of bull. Saying it's not a good investment is the truth.

 

Definitely fair enough. Some day I would love to own an AU or MS example of the DBSE Half Dollar. But those typically seem to run like $200k+++++ .

Even owning a nice example like that I still don't think is a great investment. I don't think coins are great investments, especially not short term, I'm not sure how I feel long term. You know... buy a coin at heritage, pay a 17.5% BP. You're already in the hole 17.5% =P.

What is the significance of the coin you described? I don't know anything about non US coins.

 

Heritage, for me, is really designed for upper level coins for buyers who don't worry about a "measly" 17.5 percent. I have bought a handful there but that fee really limits my firepower.

 

And the inflation adjusted return would be?

 

Talk about bull, buying something means you invested in it? Investments are the purchase of assets with the intent of creating wealth in the future. I do not make purchase decisions on coins with the future value in mind. I don't invest in coins.

 

the topic is "if you had the money". Having the glory of owning the 1913 V Nickel has preference and glory than a quick profit.

 

What you call "investment", I call speculation because that is exactly what it is. I know there is a speculative aspect to buying coins and apparently unlike you, don't find a need to rationalize it as anything else.

 

Most people either don't know the distinction between speculation and investing or rationalize their behavior as "investment" because speculation is considered riskier or imprudent. Speculation has a negative connotation associated with it while "investing" is viewed positively. I don't see speculation with a negative connotation, don't see a need to rationalize it either and describe this behavior for what it is.

In your initial post here, you also mentioned the rationalization aspect to it. This exactly what people do and to claim otherwise is totally absurd.

It should be apparent from the price level and price structure and especially US coins today that rationalizing many current prices is the overwhelming reason used to justify a purchase. Instead, many buyers of especially high quality but common (US) coins want to believe that what they are buying is so much better than a similar coin (date, MM, denomination, and maybe country) in slightly lower quality. If anything is "bull", it is this rationalization.

Anyone can buy what they want and like. The one thing I know though is that these prices aren't the result of increased buyer sophistication or a collective epiphany of their supposed merits versus prior perception.

 

The pillar series is one of the most recognized in the world. The 1732 Mexico 8 reales is generally considered the most highly sought after coin in the series. The 4R is similar except that it is half dollar sized instead dollar sized and is quite a bit scarcer. As a denomination, the 4 reales is relatively scarce collectively but there aren't very many decent coins available. As a date/MM combination, all of them are either scarce or rare in anything other than damaged or impaired condition. The 1732 is considered the most significant in the series (maybe after the 1758 and 1760 Chile) both as the first date and its scarcity, similar to other coins. Gilboy claims one to three are know (R5) but I'd guess it's probably actually an R4 with four to 10.

I consider the DBSE half preferable to a pillar 4R generically but not this particular coin. My assumption is that collective perception differs 180 degrees or substantially depending upon whether it is a US collector or otherwise. Most US collectors will presumably consider the DBSE half a preferable coin. I equally suspect that hardly any foreign collector who is aware of the merits of both will think likewise because they don't hold US coins in the same esteem.

 

Okay, okay, so I'll take the hit for creating this thread. We're probably all talking past each other. We're all in this together. I would think we all basically have the same thoughts, feeling and ideas about coin collection. I know I probably didn't articulate my thoughts/question correctly. It's not or probably shouldn't be about the financial investment, at least not for me.

It would be nice to purchase something that at least retains it value over the years but if not, so be it.

I'm still looking for the correct words myself. Emotional investment? Historical investment? For me, I think I'm looking for a legacy investment. Something to build on and hopefully pass on to my loved ones. To hear my grand-kids say: Damn, grandpa left use a VG 1793 HC Liberty Cap or a VF 1794 Flowing Hair.

I like the words @medoraman used: Collector value.

 

We actually agree to a point but it's not 100%. The word invest has many meanings to different folks. I invest in property that pay me each month. I invest in a coin for the joy of owning it. I invest in an album or holder to protect that coin. They are all assets with some value. You don't have to make a profit for it to be called an investment.