Help me decide on this Draped bust dollar

A coin like that would be nice to have if truly worth it

 

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The only way I would buy a coin like that is I would get an agreement with the seller that if I submit it to a TPG and it comes back as a fake, that there would be a refund issued.

But personally, I would only buy that coin certified.

 

If you do the research, you can easily identify the authenticity of a bust dollar. Mine looks way better in a Capital holder than in a slab.

 

You couldn’t be more correct.

 

@CCMint I think our comments speak for themselves. PASS, PASS and PASS

 

Nonsense! I'll guarantee ANY of the die struck counterfeit Flowing Hair dollars that got into PCGS and NGC slabs decades ago would have fooled you and your dealer! Who knows what the state-of-the-art deceptive fakes might look like now?

 

@CCMint, you asked for our thoughts so I'll add mine.

Authenticity: The coin appears to be the BB-255 die marriage, a common marriage with 1000s estimated available in mid-range grades. Of course, it could still be a counterfeit where the counterfeiter wisely and knowledgeably choose to copy a genuine die marriage. I am a bit put off by the truncated points on Stars 10 and 11, a feature that is not seen on genuine BB-255s. See comments under "Grade" below.

Grade: I'll agree with a fineness grade of VF-20 with the added note that the fields are pretty nice for this grade. The coin has very few and very small circulation marks, less than I would expect to see for the wear. Has it been cleaned and/or smoothed? Let's say probably cleaned. As I said, the fields are very clean so I wouldn't want to opine on whether it's been smoothed without a close in-hand examination. These comments also go to its authenticity. If the coin is counterfeit and artificially worn and toned, we might expect to see fewer circulation marks and cleaner fields than a genuine coin of similar fineness.

Value: A straight-graded VF-20 in a PCGS or NGC slab appears in Greysheet at $2000 (your coin is the "Large 3") and in the CDN Retail Guide at $2500. These price guides are only relevant to slabbed coins. A raw coin, all other things being equal, is worth less and not just accounting for slabbing, insurance and shipping fees (See "Risk Management" below). I would discount raw value by 10% to 15% from slabbed value. If the coin has an old cleaning, the price guides are definitely out. I would expect an otherwise unobjectionable coin like this to be discounted for an old cleaning by about 20% to 30% of straight-grade value. If the coin has been smoothed, I would discount by about 40% for this coin. If both, a discount of 40% to 50% is in order.

So, this raw coin is worth from a high of $2250 (raw, straight-grade off of CDN Retail) to a possible low of $1000 (raw, cleaned and smoothed off of Greysheet Wholesale.

Conclusion regarding value is that no matter how you cut it, the price on the 2X2 of $2950 is no bargain and is not even close to reasonable.

Risk Management: Here's the rub. If you buy this coin, you take on all the risk of grade and authenticity. For me to assume this risk, the coin would have to be very special (very rare die marriage/cherry pick & etc.) AND the price would have to be very sweet. This coin has neither feature going for it. And, this coin has questions swirling around it with regard to both issues of grade and authenticity.

Suggestion for moving forward: If you have as-yet unstated reasons for your interest in this particular coin, then you might consider striking a deal with the seller wherein he submits the coin to PCGS or NGC and if it comes back with a straight-grade of whatever you pre-negotiate with the dealer, then you will pay him a pre-negotiated price for that grade plus all the submission costs. If the coin comes back genuine but with a details grade, then it's up to you whether or not you want to pre-negotiate a price for that outcome. Obviously, if the coin comes back counterfeit there is no deal. This puts all the risk of the transaction on him, where it belongs, while still guaranteeing him a sale if the coin is what he says it is.

What would @Publius2 do? A common, raw coin at a high price that I can get slabbed anywhere for a better price? I'd go elsewhere and not go to all the bother and uncertainty.

 

Goodness, this is excellent information, thank you. Even though I had decided to not get it, I'm still going to return this week to take a look at those stars with my loupe.

 

@CCMint , here is a 1803 BB-255 dollar in PCGS F-12 offered for $1950 by an extremely reputable dealer in early material. Greysheet is at $1705 and CDN Retail has it at $2130.

Consider this a comparison for your search, I am not advocating anything except the fact that you can find good material at fair prices without any risk.

https://www.davidperkinsrarecoins.com/1803-1-large-3-b-6-bb-255-dr.html

 

I say buy what you like, if it’s something your interested in

 

I does not have to an 1803, which is slightly better date. 1799 is the most common year. It's also the only silver coin the mint issued that year.

Here is my 1803.



I would advise you to buy a certified coin. There are counterfeits out there. When the time comes to sell, certified coins bring more money because the dealer doesn't have spend more on the piece to have it certified. Certification costs keep going up because of higher grading and shipping charges.

 

Of course, that's true. I only posted this because it's the same year, die marriage and approximate grade of the raw coin the OP originally posted.