Coin survival rate

Since you mentioned Bolivia - keep in mind that in most countries it is perfectly normal to take certain "old" coins out of circulation. At some point those will lose their legal tender status and are not used for payments any more. And they may well be melted down ...

Christian

 

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Couple of thoughts:

1) Just because a coin is no longer circulating doesn't mean it hasn't "survived". Quite the opposite - removing it from circulation is the best form of "surviving" that exists.

2) Coinstar reject tray finds are circulation finds..., on steroids.

 

Agreed. I also agree with Kurt that it makes sense that US silver coins have not or might not be melted down in substantial numbers. In other countries like Bolivia (which is most), there are few (and this instance effectively no) collectors and there are also few or no buyers of "junk" silver. So since there is no market for it, melting for export is a likely outcome.

 

Most US coins until the 1870s WERE melted down in substantial numbers by the mint to make bullion for subsequent coinage. And even after that, obsolete coins were routinely melted (for example, posted here a couple months back are records showing 10,000s of 3c silvers were melted in the 1920s). The problem with those records is they are by weight or value not by mintage years.

 

Pretty much the last of the truly mass meltings were those in the Pittman Act Morgans that became Indian/British after export and recoining.

 

A lot of people in the USA will easily take that for granted also - there have been only a couple of instances where coins lost legal tender status, ie gold coins and the Trade Dollars. All other coins going back to 1793 are still legal tender. The only other countries that could come close might be Switzerland(coins only) and Canada. Both countries coins back to the 1850s might be legal tender, the designs on some of the Swiss minors haven't changed since the 1880s and very occasionally something from that time might turn up in change.

 

Yes, but in the 1870's, there weren't very many collectors in the US, so it would not have made any sense to do otherwise. Even today, I don't believe there are remotely enough collectors for the coins which exist now, whether silver or base metal. The coins are just hoarded.

South Africa Union silver coinage (1923-1960) was also mostly melted, first in the 1950's after the reduction in the silver content from 80% to 50% and then after 1960 due to the change to decimalization from the British pre-decimal system. With this coinage, apparently most very low mintage coinage doesn't exist, whether from melting or otherwise. The 1931 circulation strike silver and 1/-, 2/- and 2/6 from 1946-1950 (except 1950 1/-) have mintages of 14,000 or less. The survival rates are very low, though presumably more coins exist than is visibly apparent. This is the direct opposite of "low" mintage 20th century US coinage due to the much larger collector base, both proportionately and absolutely.

 

Please check, you are/were correct about Trade dollars, but they were re-monitized

"Trade dollars were again made legal tender by the Coinage Act of 1965, which stated in part "All coins and currencies of the United States (including Federal Reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal Reserve banks and national banking associations), regardless of when coined or issued, shall be legal tender for all debts, public and private, public charges, taxes, duties and dues."[10][36] However, the numismatic and bullion value of any trade dollar far exceeds its face value of one dollar"


Also, although gold coins were no longer to be accepted in trade, I do believe that they were never made non-legal tender.

All that happened was the restriction for circulating coinage, and the denial of gold certificates to be redeemed for gold.

 

What was the main fate of pre-decimal British coinage that was held domestically in the UK? I mean, it's fairly common in the states, but it never was spendable here, after it initially lost legal tender status in the 1800's. Did the UK destroy the stuff? Or did it fall to collectors? I know shillings and florins circulated post-1971 because they had exact equivalents (5 and 10 new pence), but what about the rest?

 

I have about 90lbs of LSD coinage from ca. 1690s on up to 1968(Irish coins) that I would love to get rid of.

 

I don't believe gold coins were ever "legal tender" - only a fool would refuse a gold coin vs. paper. It was just understood that practically anybody save said fool would take them. In contrast the concept of "legal tender" in the USA originates during the American not very civil war of 1861-65 when the government felt the necessity to render ordinarily worthless paper as a form of mandatory tender in lieu of debts because gold and silver coin vanished.

 

I don't know what happened to most UK pre-decimal coinage. My assumption is that much of it has been hoarded - by someone somewhere - just as US coinage has been, though maybe not to the equivalent extent. The difference between the UK and South Africa is that collecting is and was a lot less popular during both the Union period and subsequently. South Africa never developed a collecting culture equivalent to the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

 

Don't know about Canada, but in Switzerland it is a little different. The 1 and 2 rp/ct coins were taken out of circulation, so the lowest denomination is the 5. Now what Swiss denominations and dates are legal tender?
5 ct/rp - 1979, and 1981 and later
10 ct/rp - 1879 and later, except 1918-1919 and 1932-1939
20 ct/rp - 1939 and later
½ fr / 1 fr / 2 fr - 1968 and later
5 fr - 1968 and later, except 1985-1993
Granted, the 0.10 coin is an exception, and the designs of several coins that are legal tender do look like the older versions. But again it is not known how many of the older coins "survived".

Here in Germany for example the total value of the returned pre-euro coins is known. Unfortunately there are no statistical data about the different denominations.

Christian

 

Thinking back, Kurt, your observation certainly was confirmed at a local coin show I attended Sunday.

 

When governments debase the coinage they'll usually melt the old coins on hand but usually old coins on hand are a small fraction of all surviving old coins.

 

Still find pre-Euro German coins occasionally here, usually 2pf and 10pf.

 

So I've done quite a bit of reading on coin survival rates and made this account to comment here. So hi everyone.

The general consensus is that on 18th century us coins (not gold) that the survival rate is around 10%. I.e. Roughly 1750 1794 dollars were minted and roundly 140 survivor. 3900 draped bust small eagle halves and roughly 285 known survivors at my last count. (That's 1796-1797 the extreme key dates).

On pre 1830 us gold, the survival rate is absolutely tiny. Less than 1% on a lot of dates. The epitome example is the 1822 $5 with 18997 (if I recall) minted and wait for it 3 survivors.

On post 1900 coins, I feel like the survival rates are generally pretty high. Post 1900 key dates really bother me because of how many survivors they are the prices they get - a lot of demand that I feel is artificially inflated is around the 1909 S VDB, 1916 D merc, etc.

I will agree that there is a lot of demand for draped busts and especially coins with that '17'. I don't it's nearly as hyped or as misinformed as the post 1900 key dates at the moment though because so few coins have that '17' even compared to the post 1900 keys.

These are the only coin types I can talk about with intelligence so I'll leave it at that.