This was a live auction. I almost never have luck at live auctions, and here's my theory. . . Live auctions are typically attended by older folks who generally don't use or have access to the internet. As a result, they haven't a clue about market prices and, as a result, tend to bid coins quite above market. Any other thoughts or similar experiences?
more likely. Imagine this: you're 85, you're retired, and you're going to kick the bucket in 10 years or less. You hate your kids, and don't want to will them your money. So you spend it all on coins, will the coins to your grandkids (who aren't complete s**tbags like your kids), and then call it a day.
I have killer luck at live auctions and so does @Brett_in_Sacto so there goes your theory However, the ability to read the crowd and adjusting your strategy as needed is a requirement to sew the seeds of that luck
Here's my strategy. . . I read the crowd by watching the arms go up. When too many arms go up, I keep my arm down.
Auction is truly luck of the draw. The thing is to find the items that are harder to value, and be prepared to pay close to fair value on metals. Sometimes you get lucky and sometimes not. One thing people don't do is is to look for yourself and don't assume what is listed is fact, especially at auction or estate. Sometimes you find some nice treasures. This was in a "misc jewelry - sterling silver" auction lot in 2014. I paid 50 cents over melt per ounce on a 12ozt lot at auction. 3 items inside were white gold. I saw one necklace inside the bag I was pretty sure was marked as .585, so I took a shot. Worst case was paying 50 cents an ounce over melt. I hit the "best case" scenario in which I found 17 grams of gold. 12gr of 14k and this little gem. This is an original Mouawad 18k <750> white gold and diamond necklace. Needless to say, the gold doubled my money for the entire lot - the neckace was a big bowl of gravy - and the silver jewelry is still stashed for a rainy day.
I've seen a lot of people toting Redbooks at auctions so that is never good if you want to win something at a reasonable price. I've had a bit of luck over the years at estate auctions, usually more uncommon stuff like foreign coins that most attendees probably don't know well. Common U.S. types, junk silver, and bullion go well over retail 95% of the time here in my neck of the woods. The same guys are always there to buy up all of the silverware and it goes considerably over melt value.
In those cases I'll start throwing out my highest bid as an opener. It shocks people and 8 times out of 10 you'll win as they can't think fast enough before the item sells (to me). You end up paying your top mark but it almost ensures a win. That's what I'm talking about with having various strategies and changing it up using them when applicable. Read the crowds and apply which strategy you think best which only comes from experience. Brett is correct in a broad sense about luck and knowledge while I focus on the finer points. There are a lot of stupid people that get caught up in the moment though and those people are hard to deal with. I usually go sit next to them and either intimidate them or be friendly and verbose. There's 101 ways to skin an auction cat so one must be fluid and have many tools in their arsenal. That said, sometimes things just don't go your way or you play the wrong card etc. That's what's fun about it. Auctions are like a box of chocolates both in terms of items and audience. You never know what you're gonna get
@Cascade - The 'crowds' are just out of their minds in my area when it comes to numismatic items. I don't even consider going to auctions for coins anymore, if a auction I'm attending has coins I'll examine them and then set my bids but when $25 common, circulated Morgan and Peace dollars are hammering at $50-60 each you just have to shake your head and focus on other items. I've ran people up way past retail just to try to gauge how far they would go and have never been stuck with the coin. The auctioneers around here salt their estate auctions with low end junky type coins and junk silver since they sell so well. List coins and guns in the auction advertisement, two surefire ways to get a huge crowd with deep pockets at an auction.
