10 best coins to buy now for possible appreciation in next 10 years

2C, 3CN and 3CS are near the bottom of the preference scale today, exactly where they have been since I started collecting in 1975 and to my knowledge, since inception. It's also likely that this is exactly where they are going to stay in the future. These coins have designs that aren't considered particularly appealing, they are small and base metal. Some of them are scarce (such as a few of the 3CN dates which I haven't seen often) and to my knowledge, not particularly common generally but there are other relatively comparable coins in a similar price range which are preferred by more collectors.

I recall in the late 1980's when proof (and maybe MS) 3CN participated in the TPG bubble. Absent another bubble, I don't believe they will ever surpass those prices adjusted for purchasing power, just as I don't believe most classic commemoratives will either.

 

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Earlier in this thread I made a joke referencing the coins I sell on eBay, but in all seriousness I only do buy (and therefore sell) coins I believe stand a good chance to appreciate. My philosophy is that coins that appreciate have the best chance of not only selling but also the best chance of selling fast. And until I sell them they are mine.

Of course some collectors don't take me or my coins seriously cause most of my coins are of lower value. That's just a product of me not having a lot of money to afford high value coins. With that said I feel like many of my low priced coins have the potential to keep up with (or outperform) some of the higher priced coins, percentage-wise.

I probably could have 4 or 5 high priced coins instead of 100 low priced coins, but it doesn't make sense for me to do that. I am paying eBay monthly fees for a store so it would be silly to do that for just a few coins. It's also a way to spread out the risk.

 

Although no one can know for sure, and there's a risk with everything...

Here are a couple:

+ Coins that are already rare today and sought after now (e.g. 1955 doubled date penny)

+ Precious metal coins in very high grade purchased "cheap" (e.g. ASE at or below spot); hold silver and hope that silver goes up in value, while also hoping that the numismatic value of high grade coins also increases (e.g. PR-69, low mintage year Libertad 1 oz). You can go with cull silver coins but that won't have much if any numismatic value depending on how poor the condition and how rare the coin is.

 

The 1955 DDO cent is actually very common for its current price and certainly not rare except under the most liberal definition. My understanding is that 30,000 were originally struck, most likely exist now and probably in an average grade of AU.

It is a very popular coin due to its unusual appearance and because many (maybe most) Lincoln collectors consider it necessary for a "complete" set.

At the same time, it isn't competitive at all compared to other coins which can be bought for about the same price, not even from US coinage and certainly not compared to world coins. I also suspect a noticeable proportion of those who own it now bought it a long time ago and aren't really in a position to buy it now at current prices because its price is dependent upon a "mass market" of affluent buyers and most people are worse off.

As an academic exercise, on one occasion I attempted to identify all coins which likely have 2500 or more available concurrently worth $2500 or more as a proxy for a "mass market". All were US "key" dates from popular series and this was one of them.

In the internet age where any (US) collector can choose from at least 250,000 coins and in an economic future where most people are likely to be worse off, I believe all 13 of them will likely be financial losers longer term.

 

For such a popular coin with fewer coming to market, is 30,000 originally struck a lot? How many survived circulation (e.g. melting, severe wear/cull, etc.)? There's an opportunity cost to everything, yes, and surely with the price tag that the 1955 DDO cent commands leads some collectors to forgo a purchase today for another rarity. But, that '55 DDO cent will likely still be on the wish list for a future purchase (i.e. demand doesn't necessarily decrease, nor does actual bidding go away, as prices will most definitely be bid up until one's reservation price).

I believe that it's a solid coin in a problem-free "high grade" to hold onto.

 

Partly, it depends upon what your definition of "high grade" means. If it's the low number of highest grades, it's a complete guess to predict the financial circumstances and fickle preferences of the concurrently low number of collectors who might want it. I'll concur with you that's more likely.

Otherwise, PCGS Coin Facts estimates 15,000 with 3750 in MS-60 or above. Unlike some of their other estimates, I think its a reasonable "ballpark" number. This isn't rare. If I wanted to put a noticeable percentage or most of my life savings into this coin, I could probably easily buy 100 MS-60+ within a year. How can this be rare?

The comparison I was making to other alternative coins wasn't just financial, but numismatic. I am familiar or very familiar with a wide range of coins. Most other collectors, including presumably on this forum are not. All collectors have their preferences but this is my primary explanation for the current popularity of the most widely collected US series and with the "key" dates, their misperceived scarcity which exaggerates their apparent appeal. The overwhelming percentage of collectors have little or no idea what else their money can buy, whether they like the same coins you or I do or not.

Current perception is substantially a throwback to collecting out of pocket change and bank rolls. I don't believe this perception is going to last as more collectors who bother to research the subject become aware of how common these coins really are and what else their money can buy.

I don't believe these coins will completely lose their appeal where it will matter to anyone reading this post. But given how common they are, don't believe they will hold their current value either, at least when measured in constant money. Looking at PCGS Coin Facts, it appears this coin has already lost value since 2009, just like most others and probably for the same reason. As a common coin, it's dependent upon a "mass market" of relatively affluent buyers and most people are worse off.

Another reason I can give you is the presumably future larger proportion of non-European collectors; Latin and Asian. I certainly see no reason why hardly any of them will like a coin like one at anywhere near its current price. Longer term. if the US collector base isn't going to shrink, there will be more of them and they are more likely to prefer other coins, whatever it may be.

Economically, I'd classify this coin and others like it as predominantly one bought by middle class or professional white collar collectors. Yes, I presume it is also bought by a decent number of "big budget" collectors but not that many. Since I believe most of these people will be worse off or much worse off in the future, economically this is why I believe fewer or far fewer will be able to afford current prices, even if they are inclined to pay it.

 

It's a bit hard to challenge or defend this assumption without venturing into forbidden topics.

Essentially, you're betting against the US economy, or a big segment of it. That's perfectly fair, but I don't see it as any more of a "sure thing" than the people who just know that gold and silver are going to skyrocket.

 

It depends on one's definition of "rare". Does rarity also account for future decline in the rate of market entry? And at its core, is it a relativistic assessment of "rare" based on supply-demand, or is it on an absolute scale? For instance and hypothetically speaking for sake of argument, if 100 million people worldwide want to buy the next iPhone, but Apple surprisingly states that it will only produce 1 million iPhones, does that make this next gen iPhone rare? Absolutely speaking, it seems like a lot of iPhones, but even in its absolute context, the practical availability of such a high number will be closer to nil than how available iPhones are today with "normal" supply.

The point about unknown economic status is valid. And so is unknown changes in trends and consumer behavior. But if you're holding onto something for ten years, the opposite may hold just as much water.

But back to my initial posting a few posts up, buying a solid, "high grade" coin (which one would have to define onself, though I like to stick with AU-55/58 or higher) has a proven track record. I'm not (typically) talking about moderns here. I'm referring to the likes of the '55 DDO cent, the classic first half of 20th century silver commemorative halfs, etc. There's much less risk when buying those coins. It's like buying artwork made by a known and highly regarded artist, such as Picasso. The value, availability, and area of expertise is vastly different, but the concept is the same - lower your risk.

 

Last week a dealer friend offered me a PCGS MS63 BN 55 DD for $2300 and I passed. The coin is popular but not rare same as the 1907 HR Saint.

 

I've heard the 55dd's have been on the decline price wise over the last few years

 

Here are price trend charts of auction prices realized for all available and slabbed MS grades of the 1955 DDO cent, for all colors (bn, rb, & rd). It's easier to see when the chart is seen over 2 and 5 years, as opposed to the last 10 years since there wasn't as much data available (or data for auction prices on this coin began only within the last 10 years). The other line in blue is the price of silver over the same time period.

Last 10 Years:



Last 5 Years:



Last 2 Years:




http://www.pcgs.com/pricehistory#/?=index81,37907-60,37908-60,37907-63,37907-64,37907-65,37908-61,37908-62,37908-62 ,37908-63,37908-63 ,37908-64,37908-64 ,37908-65,37909-60,37909-61,37909-62,37909-62 ,37909-63,37909-64,37909-64 ,37909-63 ,37909-65,37909-65 ,37909-66,37907-63 ,37907-64

 

Fascinating thread for me to read as a total newbie. It's unfortunate that some are so against the idea of buying with a view to make a profit though. It's not such a bad thing. If you are able to collect something you enjoy, and later sell for a profit you win because you have cash flow for more coins, and the buyer wins because you preserved the coins and provided something they will enjoy as well.

I'd rather buy something appealing that may be undervalued rather than appealing and overpriced. So this thread has been helpful.

 

I feel you should be happy with breaking even. Then you enjoyed many years of collecting without any real expense. Breaking even must include all hard costs to you; commissions, shipping, insurance, slabbing, display items and even simple airtites.

 

I think the "investment" aspect is fun. It's actually what brought me into coins. Sure, by the strictest definition of investment it doesn't pass muster but the thrill of having more knowledge as a buyer than the seller and reaping financial reward because of it is a very thrilling aspect of this hobby that is shot down at every hint of its mention. It's also one of the reasons I'm a vammer, aside the extreemly fun, relaxing, addicting and brotherhood aspect of vamming the thrill of buying a morgan at grade price and because YOU know more than the seller you can double, triple, quintuple or more your money is awesome

 

Yeah, the potential of profit is a big driver for me, too, even though I rarely actually realize it (sell stuff). I guess it's part of the larger hoarder personality defect -- "I should grab that, it might be useful/worth something someday!"

 

I look at coin investment as a way to upgrade my collection.

The greater the profit, the merrier my collection.

That means for me that breaking even is ok.

 

I read today that those $20 Liberty Head coins are selling for just a little over melt value at least the common ones. You know the ones from 1870-19-- are 96% gold.
They don't get the love that the Saints get nor Indian Head 1/4, 1/2 and Eagles. However, they may be sort of ugly but they are gold. The article I was reading was discussing gold and gold coins as insurance against disaster such as hyperinflation. If I had $100,000 that I absolutely did not need I would probably buy gold coins in mint condition. This would be for insurance purpose and lust for gold in my own heart.

 

90% gold, not 96%. Each contains .9675 troy ounce of gold.

There are some scenarios in which it's great to be holding gold. There are others where it's terrible. We're actually in one of the latter now, if you "backed up the truck" when gold was "on the first leg" of its "parabolic climb" through $1600, $1700, $1800, even $1900/ozt. Sure, there's a good chance it'll go back up, eventually -- but there's also a good chance it'll go down further still.

Holding gold is a double gamble; you're gambling on what its price will do in the future, and you're gambling on when you might need to convert it back to dollars (or whatever). And for those who discount this, saying "gold is the true measure of value", "gold is the only real money", etc. -- well, I don't see many grocers or realtors or doctors who agree with you.

 

If you look at that chart for 1955 coins that is the same chart for gold and silver. When bullion prices go up then coin prices go up except the most rare or the rare. Investing in coins is great if you have about 40 years to wait for appreciation. I think the toned Morgans is a fad that will come and go when some other fad coin comes along. You get a Flowing Hair Dollar is MS condition and that coin will be worth a fortune for the next 100 years IMO.

 

I see gold and silver as insurance with your other assets. Maybe 5% or 10% actual gold or silver and no more. I think to try and trade in gold and silver is a real sucker's game. It is a double game just like the stock market. You have to guess about the right time to buy and the right time to sell. I say buy and hold unless you believe the USA's and world economy is going straight to hell forever. There have been bubbles since the Great South Sea bubble and Tulip bubble. In 2010-11 we had a precious metals bubble. I do think there is a great chance of the price returning to the mean that going to $3000 an ounce for gold in next ten years.