10 best coins to buy now for possible appreciation in next 10 years

Before the Alan Greenspan era, asset prices did not behave as they have since, starting in 1994. I would call this "recency bias" except that 22 years can't exactly be called that. Regardless, the financial levitation act isn't going to last forever (which is exactly what it is) and when it ends, those who have an outsized position in these hugely inflated asset classes (bonds, common stocks and real estate primarily) are going to take a huge hit and most who haven't already will probably take a concurrent hit to their standard of living.

I'm not a metal bug but do believe everyone should have some position in them which is what I have done. Unfortunately, central banks have forced most everyone to make one of two choices. Either sit the financial mania out which is what I have mostly done. Or two, participate in the reckless speculation and see if you can find a chair when the music stops.

 

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Some say this but I counter with what cycle? Rainbow toners were seen as damage pre-1970s and since then they have been in high demand. Was there a period before they were considered tarnish that they were highly prized? If not than it's not a cycle. It was a realization, due to the amazing colors that came from mint to vault bags of morgans, that toners were nature's work of art in the coin world. I doubt amazingly toned coins will EVER be seen as tarnish again or will "cycle". What we do have to worry about though is preserving the color as best as possible to slow down or hault progression to end stage. And Leigh already effectively countered the argument of what if doctors can get to the point of flooding the market with AT doppelgangers. It'll be all about old holders

 

Honestly, the only time the price of a coin crosses my mind, is when I'm paying for it. The word "investment" is reserved for the explanation to the wife.

 

I just really like to collect coins to make my younger brother envious since he used to collect coins before he became such a cheapskate. When he looked at my 2/3 finished Morgan set and said it was beautiful it was all worth it. I see economic troubles coming soon because all markets are floating on almost zero interest rates. That is coming to an end and we will see what that means to all assets. You see strong hint of rising interest rates has killed gold rally. For gold and silver to rise you need strong inflation or economic disaster where people flee for cover. If you think that is going to happen buy gold coins, gold or silver.

 

Gold and silver are still firmly in an uptrend. They've just bounced down into a lower range currently but still in an uptrend.

 

Gold and silver soared from 2001-2008 and then from 2009-2011 without either economic disaster or high inflation, except for those who might believe inflation is actually worse than even Shadow Stats claims which I do not. Speculators bought in anticipation of one or both, presumably primarily because of "printing" from QE.

In 1979, both gold and silver went parabolic despite much higher interest rates than the last run up. They both crashed when rates were high but much higher rates than today did not prevent their price increase.

What matters most is what people believe, not how a particular economic measure performs or not.

 

From 2001 which is when the long term bottom occurred, probably. Silver less certain than gold. I can still see silver breaking the $8.39 low of October 2008 though will buy before it reaches this level.

 

Totally unfair rule since the only coins that would actually appreciate over the next 10 years in any measurable amounts would be coins of that nature.

I think a more fair question might be "Which 10 Coins will NOT appreciate much over the next 10 years?"

 

Honestly not all the ultra rarities have appreciated that much. And timing is everything. With the sale of some huge collections like Pogue and Gene Gardiner and Newman the markets had a ton of high dollar coins out there. You can buy a 1804 dollar or a 1913 Liberty nickel as an investment and if you go to sell and a couple other people are selling theirs at the same time you could be in trouble. There's only a very few collectors at the top of the marketplace. I think top end coins in the $1000 to $100,000 range are a much better investment as there's far more people that can afford them than the million dollar coins. A coin like the small eagle half or quarter will always have a strong demand in any condition as people need them to complete their type sets a 1794 dollar is another good jnvestment an they're always popular as the first dollar struck by the us mint. Actually I've seen a strong increase in prices of all the early dollars ie bust and flowing hair in the last 15 years and I don't expect that to change especially for original skin problem free examples. I remember seeing small eagle dollars in original vf for $1500 or so about 10-15 years ago. Good luck finding one like that now. I've underbid the last 3 quality raw ones that have come up at estate auctions up here in the last couple years and all brought in the $3500-4K range

 

Not sure about your time frame but for a long term plan, I think any US in decent collectible grade with a date starting with 17xx, low mintage modern Chinese and high grade Mexican.

 

Any coin that is made by the mint today...

 

There was a real estate induced financial meltdown in 2008 if you can remember back that far. The Secretary of the Treasury went down on his knees begging for unlimited funds to stop a total collapse of the banking system world-wide. In 1979-80 inflation was on the rampage and interest rates went to 21% to kill it and the economy. The pursuit of the Vietnam War and Great Society without raising taxes to pay for them led to the inflation of the 70's and early 80's. Ronald Ray-gun killed inflation by creating the worst recession since 1937. In 1929 as we entered the Great depression both gold and silver surged which is why gold was no longer used currency because the gold in a $20 gold piece was worth a lot more than $20. People were scared and lost faith in the banking system. This is the same for silver in silver dollars when we went off the silver standard for the dollar. People bid up the price of gold and silver when they get scared. Inflation scares markets as bad as depression because hyperinflation usually ends in hyper interest rates in order to kill borrowing and cool off labor and goods markets. If you just look at a chart of gold prices since 1900 you can see the bull and bear markets. Perhaps when interest rates get back to normal the stock market will take a hit and gold may shine. It was not shinning on Friday being just about $1216 an ounce. Better chance for it to go down than up IMO. Coins cranked out by the mint today are probably not worth the metal in them or work to produce them. They are just there so you can pay sales tax.

 

Exactly

 

The price of silver crashed during the Great Depression to 24 or 25 cents an oz. I don't have a chart handy but I have seen it before and others elsewhere have quoted it numerous times. The US government fixed the price of gold at $35 per OZ versus $20.67 previously. Otherwise, it may have lost value but no one can ever know.

 

Yup. Pm's crash when markets crash. As the markets start looking brighter pm's are usually the first place money goes back into. We saw prices crash in the late 20's then rise in the early 30's a few years after the crash as well as around 2008 they crashed then around 2011 they went bonkers a few years after the crash.

And don't bet on pm's going back into.a downtrend any time soon john. Sure anything can happen but I wouldn't bet on it. Right now we're in a firm uptrend after a multi-year solid downtrend. Uptrends, especially after a 4+yr downtrend, don't just roll over and die. Right now, buyers are tired after weeks of both metals going crazy and the hint of a rate hike. They've just gone into a lower range and are chopping around but STILL in a full-on uptrend

 

Cascade

As you say we just had pm's go bonkers in 2011. Is it more likely they will go bonkers again, or revert to inflation adjusted average. You know that markets tend to revert to their mean averages adjusted for inflation. We are in a slight uptrend from a downtrend following a wild pm bull market. After 1979 it took almost 30 years to have another pm serious bull market. It took 40 years after the 1930 pm bull to have another in 1979-80. Since 1900 stocks have averaged about 8% given all the bull and bear markets. These things tend to average out if you can wait 100 years. I guess my question was just to stir the pot since nobody knows where markets are going for anything. If we did we would all be billionaires like Warren Buffett.

 

The 1796 quarter is a not only a one year type, but the first issue of that denomination, with a total surviving population estimated in the 600 range. I don't see how that is overpriced, especially when compared with high priced Morgan's or more recent key dates. It is my understanding that federal coinage during that period was uncommon, and the 2 real pieces you mentioned were most commonly seen in circulation. I'm sure some dates are rare but so is my R5 Connecticut colonial that I paid 100 bucks for. It has less than 100 pieces in existence but perhaps there are even fewer collectors who are striving to own all the varieties.

As for worldwide demand among new middle classes, you are probably correct in regards to many developing countries. The one major exception, with which i have a lot of personal experience, is Russia. The country is filled with educated people who previously did not have the means to collect rare coins, whereas now many of them do.

 

I believe the metals are in a "correction" to a counter trend rally but the bottom is not in from YE 2011. From 1979, I believe gold is in an uptrend but silver less certain. If this is confusing, its because there are different sizes (degrees) of trend.

If any markets are waiting for a pin to pop to return to its trend average, its the bond, stock and real estate markets. "High quality" bond yields are near the all-time recent lows which is ridiculous given that credit quality is obviously much worse for all developed country government bonds, especially the 1930's. The "historical return" on the US stock market you referenced has been reduced by the two bear markets from the last decade but still hugely inflated versus what it would otherwise should be if it weren't for monetary distortions. There isn't anything normal about it either. I believe that at some point in the future, the "long term" returns will more closely resemble what they did between 1929 and 1982 which weren't really that great.

As for real estate, it should be apparent that there is vast excess capacity commercially based upon excessive cheap debt. Same for residential where even with generational (and maybe all-time) lows in mortgage rates, the home ownership rates are the lowest since the 1960's.

Homes in most markets are "affordable" but only because credit standards are absurdly lax and not remotely tight. Most people are so broke that it's only because of almost non-existent down payments and government guarantees for almost 100% of all mortgages that the resale market is in good shape, even while new home construction has been in the dumps since 2009.

 

The more expensive Morgan dollars are disproportionately "investment" coins which the 1796 quarter is not, though given its price I presume those who buy it concurrently view it as an "investment".

In looking at the Heritage archives, the price spreads are rather low by US standards. I consider the coin overpriced for its merits since I don't consider 600 particularly scarce, but the higher (though not highest) grades are actually much better values. I believe I saw an AU-58 in the range of $50k while lower circulated grades all the way down to FR-2 sell for $5k to $20k. Its these lower grade coins that I think are going to be money losers, even if US market does ok in the aggregate.

Today, I can assure you that the 1796 quarter is a lot more common than every pillar 2R, regardless of mint except in grades that no US collector really wants to buy. Heritage has a listing where they estimate between 56 and 70 individual specimens in some MS grade. It might be somewhat lower but even though the Mexico mintages were a lot higher at least after 1746, I don't believe any of them have anywhere near this many. For Bolivia and Guatemala combined, I suspect the total is almost zero for all dates combined. For Peru, outside of a few dates such as 1758, 1761 and 1771, same story.

On foreign collector by local collectors in developing markets, I believe there are going to be some exceptions. Russia, China and India are presumably three of them. Generally though, aside from the lack of a collecting tradition, the other major obstacle is lack of quality coins to buy. From what I have seen, Russia has a lot of them. Less than the US, the Anglo countries and Western Europe but a lot more than Latin America, including Mexico. A country like Mexico isn't going to have the anywhere near the same proportion of collectors as the US or Britain because the coins most collectors prefer do not exist in sufficient quality or quantity.

 

Are you saying that the pillar 2R as a class is rarer than the 1796 quarter, or that each individual date and mint combo is rarer? Comparing a one year US type to individual date and mint combos of a coin minted in multiple countries across decades would be apples and oranges to say the least...

Even so I wouldn't disagree that the 2R's are probably underpriced and are neat looking coins to boot.