Thinking of purchasing a 1909 S VDB ms65 Red or RB

Kyle you do you want an investment or a 1909 S VDB Penny.. If you are less than 40 it may be a coin to think it would be an investment. I always wanted one since 1965 when they were about $40 .. thought I would wait until the price came down so just ask yourself .. what is it you really want.

 

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I would probably buy a 1955 DDO over the 1909.

 

Buy one if you desire one in your collection but I don't recommend coins as investments....just MHO.

 

I don't think the oldest, most life-experienced numismatist among us remembers a day when the 1909-S VDB wasn't a high-demand, high-churn, true "investment" coin. They have been probably the single most in-demand coin from the day they were minted, and availability in this case has helped perpetuate that demand. I'm not normally one for advising any coin as an investment, but the 1909-S VDB will be a solid investment for as long as there's coin collecting. As long as you use the prudent numismatist's definition of "investment" as "retaining value," rather than "appreciation over time."

But all a Red needs to become a Brown is oxygen, and slabs aren't air-tight....it's a game of Russian Roulette.

If you have the budget to be contemplating a 65RD, make some discreet inquiries with well-connected dealers about finding one of the (few) 66BN's. Similar money (maybe a bit more; too few reach retail to be sure), and Top Pop at both PCGS and NGC for the color. In the interest of disclosure, I have a severe weakness for Gem Brown Lincolns and my opinion must be taken with a grain of salt.

 

This is an interesting topic. As others have said it's difficult to predict what will be popular in the future.

I like OP's mindset in going after the red (as far as investment). I know there's the risk of it darkening. I'm also aware that there is a higher population of high grade reds versus brown, but I have to imagine there have also been more reds submitted. Not only submitted but also resubmitted. So the population numbers are probably not painting a good picture when it comes to red vs brown.

Since the coin goes from red to brown (not the other way around), buying brown runs the risk of the population growing over time. If OP can... and this is the key... preserve the red color then I would think he stands a good chance of seeing a profitable return on his investment. Of course this relies on the coin staying popular and in demand.

 

Fairly spoken. Buy the Red, get it away from oxygen, and wait for those who aren't as careful to increase the value of yours.

 

I always have mixed feelings about this. While I understand it should be fun to just collect for the sake of collecting, I think part of the intrigue is buying things with potential. At least for me anyway.

I would totally agree if someone said you shouldn't look to coins to make a fast buck. But long term I don't see why a collector shouldn't try to make informed purchases.

 

Not a coin I've had any desire to own. If me I'd buy a eye appealing rb tho. But I'd spend the money on a beauty of a ms or proof seated coin myself. Or a draped bust dollar which keep steadily going up

 

Thanks for all the comments everyone. While I know others are pursuing me to push into a different direction as for which coin to select, I think the s vdb would be a good option for the long haul. I am all for seated proofs, they are my main type in my collection, but they don't seem to fair so well in value increase over time. Where i do very much so collect for the enjoyment I also don't want to be throwing money away or not seeing a return.

That being said, I try to invest below bid, or buy fabulous coins I feel I wouldn't have an issue selling. While the market should technically favor low population coins such as the seated proof series, there is not enough of a demand for a hefty profit in the years to come (unless that changes). I think a solid red vdb will do well as others have said, it has always been in demand for the past 50 years. Heck, even non-coin collectors when they learn of my hobby ask if I have it.

Finding one that is sealed from the environment/stable appears to be the next daunting task. Would really suck if it turns over time!

 

Don't forget, brown copper is the result of an oxidation process, and a decent vacuum pack where no oxygen is present will halt things right where it sits.

 

Thanks Dave, I did not think of that. Seems that the ones were initially RB and are now Brown in some of the older holders must have had a loose seal or somthing around the lines of such.

 

Do you think a 55 DDO would be more desirable though? It is a very cool coin and whenever I get a wheat in change I still do check for the elusive DD :0.

 

But non-collectors are not the ones who will be coughing up the money to buy it down the road, so their interest and knowledge of the coin should have no influence on your decision to purchase one.

I realize that "hefty profit" was mentioned in regards to a different type, but still seems to indicate that this is your expectations for the S VDB you may buy. If so you, unfortunately, may very well be setting yourself up for a fall, at least if my definition of "hefty" matches or is anything close to yours. A "numismatic investment" in collectible level material should only be viewed in the way the one gentleman stated earlier in this thread...

"As long as you use the prudent numismatist's definition of "investment" as "retaining value," rather than "appreciation over time."

This, in my most humble opinion and due to experience, is the wisest approach one can take when "investing" in (collectible level) coins as their simply are no guarantees. The established demand and popularity of this coin in no way means that it will significantly increase in value (especially in future dollars) enough to offer you an absolute equally significant return. In fact a better case can likely be made that without a significant increase in interest/demand, the likelihood of a "hefty profit", if looking at the big picture, are fairly small.

Perhaps ten or more years down the road when the time comes to sell you'll be one of the fortune in being able to pocket a then-retail price for the coin, but more often than not this isn't what happens, and should be kept in the back of your mind when making any purchase. I'm not talking only about the hit one would take selling to a dealer, but the cost (and/or risk) associated with most venues should be taken into consideration, and a reasonable exit strategy put in place before hand. It's your money to do with as you see fit, but just take care to see only what is there and not what you want to.

 

This is going to sound outlandish, but there's a completely non-numismatic factor which anyone currently contemplating a "hold" scenario of over a decade ought to consider.

Some of the finest scientific minds on the planet are working overtime to eliminate gold, silver and other precious metals from their respective industrial usages. They are in most cases the most expensive component of whatever they're used in and industrial usage forms the large majority of all precious metals consumption. The financial incentive to replace them is immense. When they succeed - and they will eventually succeed - the bottom will drop out of the related precious metals market and drive the speculators completely away.

Superconducting materials now exist which achieve superconductivity at liquid nitrogen temperatures, and liquid nitrogen is easily produced and has been for 125 years. Further refinement of the process - don't forget, we can create designer molecules pretty much from scratch these days - will heavily impact the electrical conductivity advantages of gold and silver.

This won't much change the market for S VDB's, Proofs or other coinage whose value derives primarily from numismatic demand, but I wouldn't exactly want a huge position in Saints or junk silver when it happens....

 

Thanks for the words of advice. Maybe hefty profit isn't exactly what I would expect, but it only seems logical that it will be a decent amount. If coin collecting continues to remain in favor of collectors and doesn't take the route the baseball card market did I think I should be ok. Ideally, I'm looking for a coin that will increase a certain percentage over time and not stay the same. The reason I say this is because I just purchased a pcgs 64 dcam barber and the price has remained the same for almost 10 years. While it's great it didn't go down, it is a disappointing larger size investment. With a population of only 3 and 1 higher, it truly is a prime example of supply and demand.

Now if we look at a sale of a 1909 s vdb in july of 93 (oddly enough my birth year) we see a realized price of $1265.One of the most recent sales of a 1909 sold for $4,465. Would be around a 8-9% return each year (if my math is correct). Which, is way better than my 10 year proof 64 dcam no price change.

Yet, now we must factor in inflation and selling fees! Maybe a good dividend stock would be best, but that is a whole other monster to start discussing.

 

There are many ways to invest. You can pay a premium now for a coin you think will hold that premium with time. Or you can invest in things that have no (or little) premium now in hopes that they gain premium. Just remember that risk is proportional to reward. Your approach should depend on how much risk you're willing to accept.

 

You're missing the intangibles which change with every auction, based solely on the audience for that specific auction and where numismatics stands in the world at the moment. And that, for instance, of the top twenty prices ever paid for an MS65RD 1909-S VDB (per PCGS Auction Prices Realized), only one has been since 2010 and the top three prices ever paid for one were in 2004.

You can't plan on "steady appreciation" with any coin.

 

I can understand that but when looking at the other examples (the ones for the low 3000 range) they are not as appealing as the others aesthetically. Regardless you are still looking at double profit on your money. Where I do agree that coin collecting isn't the best place to put money as an investment, it appears looking at the figures the s vdb looks like a decent place as again compared to my seated proofs.

 

This is really why coins[1] are bad investments. They're not fungible. They're subject to the whims of the collector market. They can degrade in condition (particularly copper).

Actual financial instruments are better in this regard. Any one share of, say, a good index fund, is the same as any other. True, you're subject to the whims of the economy, but that's unavoidable and possible to mitigate with diversification strategies. And, your share isn't going to be worth less tomorrow than it is today because the certificate of ownership got a stain on it or something.

[1]: Really all collectibles are bad investments. Look at what's happened to Beanie Babies.

 

....which is because of demand, another complete intangible subject to the whims of the collecting world. If a major discovery in your Proof niche happens the month before you offer yours for auction, you're going to get moon money compared to the month before. If the sale of a major, pedigreed collection happens the month before, you're going to lose your shirt.