State of the Hobby

To what extent, do you suppose, is your observation related to A) The "Rust Belt" kind of deterioration Reading experienced during that era (which was substantial - you'd know far better than I, of course, but Reading lost 20% of its' population between 1960-1980 and to this day it's one of the poorest cities in America) and B) The advent of "big box" and mall retailing which decimated sole retail proprietorships in general, not just numismatics?

Heck, there's very_darn_little retail numismatics here in Philly, for a city this size.

 

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As Dave touched on saying that the economy played no role would simply not be true.

I will expand on it further, by 1985 what had the collecting world just been through? The massive silver run up by the Hunt Brothers without question played a large role. I cannot recall the exact dates of when even common Morgans were fetching insane prices but if it was early 80s that absolutely played a role as well.

Simply put a lot of collectors and shops especially lost a ton of money with the collapse of silver and only well funded ones could survive that type of hit, smaller shops had no chance if they had a substantial amount of silver on hand. It may have taken a few years to go under completely, but trying to dig out of that kind of hole is a very difficult proosition for a mid sized shop in a town that isn't exactly Beverly Hills. Not a knock on Reading, but it is hardly the barometer of a nation wide market.

The internet would disagree with you. You wouldn't be seeing the sales numbers on EBay, Great Collections, David Lawrence Auctions, Heritage ect and even many shows are still successful if the hobby was a corpse. The generation before you was likely saying the same things about how it was going to die with them.

The values certainly can hold today. The internet has opened up every buyer to just about the entire inventory available to find what they want or like. It has also opened up a world wide market that 40 years ago very few people would have been partaking in.

That perception ended a while for things people thought were rare but were actually quite common. The internet has brought more transparency about rarities than has ever existed before. You have population reports from TPGs and numerous sales venues to see how often things come for sale and a general idea on how many have been graded and in what grades. It turns out that 16-D Merc or the 1909 S VDB aren't actually rare at all while some much cheaper Seated material could take you years to find a fitting one.

We don't have to guess or trust a someone trying to sell us something for rarities anymore, you can see everything with your own eyes and a few minutes online.

They won't implode but most will exit or switch focus barring another run up anytime in that time frame. I agree investing in bullion is not a good use of funds, but if it makes them happy and they can afford it more power to them.

With that said if you ever spend sometime poking around around bullion sites or bullion forums, you will see a decent number of them end up crossing over to the numismatic side due to the interest in coins their silver stacking starts. You would be surprised how many collectors started off that way in the last 7 years or so.

 

The health of the hobby will ultimately depend on the influx of new collectors to the hobby. What I am curious about is how the collectors on this site got into the hobby originally. For every collector who was lucky enough to inherit a collection from a relative (myself included), I would hazard a guess that many more got into the hobby by building out collections of circulating coins - maybe filling out a folder of Lincoln cents or keeping a jar of state quarters.

I believe the hobby is in a good position for the next 50 years or so, due to the revitalizing impact of the internet (eBay, coin collecting forums, registry sites) and the Mint's vigorous marketing efforts. Those two factors have resulted in a huge increase in young collectors, who should help the hobby survive the retirement of the large Baby Boomer generation of collectors.

However, I am not too optimistic about the strength of the hobby more than 50 years out. The problem is that, as others have stated, we are moving towards a cashless society. While cash will obviously still have a role in society, that role will only become more limited as young people grow to rely on various virtual payment methods. As the next generations lose exposure to coins in circulation, the probability of them entering the hobby on their own volition will only decrease. Coins will become obsolete antiques, collected by a small niche. The Mint will continue pumping out the same volume of material each year but unlike before, demand won't keep up with supply. Just as the USPS oversaturated the stamps market, the Mint will oversaturate the coins market. The bottom will drop out, and we'll be left with a small group of wealthy collector-investors maintaining the prices of rare coins at the top of the market.

Or...I just pulled all of the above out of my butt and I and everybody else has no idea what the future will bring.

 

One thing we often forget with the passing of time is that the population will only continue to grow. Today the population in the USA is over 320 million, 50 years ago it was about 195 million. Just to put that in perspective with made up numbers if 50 percent of the people back then were collectors that would give us 97.5 million collectors. Today is 30 percent of the population are collectors that gives us almost the exact same number. There is a pretty good chance just from population growth that we have a larger number of collectors today even if the percentage of the population collecting has diminished.

I would be considered a next generation collector and fall into the category of someone who almost never uses cash. Unless a store offers a discount for cash it is just cheaper to use a credit card and get the cash back or the rewards.

People are drawn to collecting for various reasons whether it be a family member, finding something cool, the history of the coins, just liking them, starting with bullion ect. There was a time most started by collecting pocket change, I strongly suspect that is no longer the case and other reasons draw them into collecting these days which won't be going away anytime soon. Even cash will be around long after any of us are.

We have been past the point of demand keeping up with the mint supply for quite sometime. Just look at how many mint products sell below the mint price on the after market. You can usually count the number of products that appreciate in value on one hand from the mint each year. If demand was actually keeping up these would at least hold their issue price.

Very true all we can do is take educated guesses to make predictions. There is a lot to worry about with the future, whether or not people will be collecting isn't one of them in my opinion

 

Except for my less favorable view of the hobby's ability to retain and expand the interest of 50-state quarter map fillers (How many of them are even aware of the ATB's?), you and I are in agreement. I hope I'm wrong about the 50 staters; I see them as a flash in the pan.

I meet darned few real collectors through the Internet. Quick buck artists? Scammers? Flippers? By the gazillion. True intellectual studious numismatists? Almost none.

 

ATBs were popular at first. That series had two major fatal flaws though. The first would be that after the first couple years most people no longer know/care about the more obscure parks at this point. Most if not all of the true landmark ones have already been issued. The second would be the fact that the designs on a lot of the national parks have been entirely to similar. Mountains/cliffs or a rock on a cliff are beautiful and all, but they get old quickly when that same design style keeps getting recycled over and over

People put off having kids in down economies. Things will either get better or they will decide they cannot wait any longer and go for it anyway. The current generation growing up will be used to this if things don't improve by the time they get to the family raising age and it will likely be less of a concern then those who have fallen into harder economic situations from it. There is a natural variation to the rate as well.

 

But this ISN'T a down economy! This is as good as it gets from now on! This is a central prerequisite to my entire thesis in this thread. It ain't gonna get any better, maybe much worse. This is the MAXIMUM wealth level that the 1% will EVER consent to giving the 99% from now on.

 

If, by "flippers," you mean people who buy up new stuff from the Mint so other people can't get it, and then sell at inflated prices well beyond the actual market value of the coins (which is where prices settle in a year or so), I agree.

If you're talking about the 'vest pocket dealer', then I disagree heartily. Those people provide a valuable service to the hobby by providing liquidity and making the market more efficient.

I don't have an unlimited budget, nor am I particularly wealthy. But, I've never bought a coin I didn't intend to keep. If I can't see myself looking at and enjoying the coin in 5 years, I don't buy it.

See above for what I think of "flippers."

A lot of people that call themselves "dealers" don't add a lot of value either. Having coins for sale doesn't add value per se. Having a reputation for quality material (implying the dealer only purchases quality stuff for sale), filling want lists, and going to shows to bring in fresh material is what I call adding value. I know of many "dealers" who don't really do any of those things.

I live in a metro area of 7+ million people and haven't been able to find a shop within a 30 minute drive that I like. You are not alone. (The Philly metro area is around 6 million, according to google.)

 

This is a down economy and has been for several years.

The same thing gets said every-time goes down the tubes. It has bounced back at some point every time and we have suffered much worse than this in the history of the country.

I have no problem snagging something that slide through the cracks and goes way to cheap to turn into something I have had my eye on for a while. That said generally I agree, but at the same time I for whatever reason my interests change and I really cannot predict when that can or will happen. As an example for the longest time I stayed away from gold, but now 3 and 5 dollar gold is something that is very interesting to me so some stuff had to go to make room for that.

 

Definitely. I wasn't trying to say that I know my interests won't change in 5 years, just that within my current interests, I want to buy and hold the nicest coins I can afford.

 

Completely agree, I am a quality over quantity guy as well.

 

Oh the ire and angst for the flipper. In the good old days of collecting he was known as the speculator.......I can remember my old man railing against them, saying they were driving up prices. Nothing has changed. And the hobby, in my estimation, is still just fine. When I was young, all I'd see was old guys collecting, and now that I'm old, I still see old guys collecting. Where do you think old guys come from? Young guys get into the hobby, (and sometimes) drop out as life takes hold, and (perhaps), reemerge in later life......Something akin to the periodical cicadas.

 

My biggest problem with the whole idea of a pessimistic viewpoint about the future of numismatics is pessimism. Pessimism is the most abject form of surrender, and I cannot envision myself as ever being a quitter. I've tried that, and failed, and I learned the lesson. They're going to need to weight down my coffin to keep me in the ground.

The future look bleak? Fight it. Go down fighting if that's what it comes to, but being a victim - a pessimist, a quitter - is a choice. It's a choice humans usually don't make voluntarily, else we wouldn't be here any more.

 

We'll be here Dave.......

 

John Birch Society........

 

Religion is the opiate of the masses.........Not gonna fence with you Kurt.

 

As angry as I'd like to be at you, all I can muster is pity. You cannot be a happy man.

 

Smoke and mirrors.......where the devil did that quote come from?

 

"M"?

 

You're a 'gem' Kurt.....