Heritage Auctions question

From my research on Heritage huge moves are not the rule, but a fairly common occurrence, at least on the coins I look up.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

Santini, thanks for chiming in....I read the titles for the coins a few times because I know like Ebay sometimes a search engine will bring up coins that don't match what you type. A few of them are "+" or "*" but those aren't even the outliers on the high-side. It's straight MS-67 CACs....I am not seeing PL or DMPL to drive the price up that much.

I wouldn't expect that kind of price differential on Ebay, let alone a site like HA with savvier buyers (and sellers). I'll wait to see what other HA & Morgan Dollar veterans here say. Maybe I'll punch up the coins individually to see if I am missing anything.

No way the same MS-67 1879 CAC can trade that wide in a few months. I'll bet the CDN price didn't move 10% if that.

 

Of course there's a way. This is an auction venue, and you don't have to qualify as an expert, or even know what you're doing, to bid. Ebay isn't the only place bidiots hang out.

Further, a + or *, especially if offered as a premium example where the price jump to the next grade is steep, can easily influence the price that much. And the September coin was an older PCGS slab with a really nice coin in it, probably the best-looking "67" of the bunch. To my eye it makes an argument for 68, which is a $5k+ coin in this issue.

 

Thanks for the info, SD...I'm just surprised because some of those MS-67 CAC 1879-S Morgan's had the same description as the coin I have but 1/2 were going for about what I paid for mine and the other 1/2 were WAY above what I paid. Even if I remove the coin you think is an MS-68, there were a few other trades near $1,800.

I'm just confused as to what I would say MY coin is worth...or whether I paid market, overpaid, or underpaid a year ago. I'm attaching pics, feel free to compare these to the list I saw at Heritage.

 

You gotta take auction results with a grain of salt - there are too many variables a reasonable collector would consider unreasonable to look at anything but the bigger picture.

I can't see any reason - understanding that above 66 one would really prefer the highest of resolution for grading accuracy - why you shouldn't be pretty darn happy with that coin in a 67 slab, and to be on the upper side of the market to acquire it. No question it's worth the Bean.

 

Agreed...I just thought there'd be much less price variation, especially at a 'sophisticated' site like HA (say, compared to Ebay where I would not be surprised to see prices all over the map). I guess you learn something new here every day.

Oh, I'm happy with the purchase, don't get me wrong. And if I somehow had overpaid I still wouldn't be upset.

I'm just trying to LEARN the nuances so that I can always be in the ballpark with a coin's value. If I am NOT seeing why that coin that is marked identical to mine really is worth $2,200 and the others $1,800 then my fear is that when I see something that is OVERPRICED I might similarly be unaware and be bidding on it.

It's one thing to not realize the value and underbid -- you just lose out on the coin. But if you get taken, and pay a huge premium for something that isn't worth it, that's worse IMO. I hope to grab some premium Morgans down the line, so it's crucial I learn to differentiate.

 

I'm theorizing here, but it seems to me that Saints are by and large "collected" as investments rather than numismatic items, and therefore the mindset of buyers would tend to adhere to a grade/bullion value-related norm regarding pricing. Morgans, on the other hand, have all sorts of fruits and nuts (raises hand) as fans.

 

I don't know about that, SD, I think they are considered numismatics but it's a smaller base of collectors than that for Morgans since the entry price even for plain generic common years in low-MS state is much higher than that for an entry-level MSD (at least 20x higher).

There's less variation for Saints for each year (i.e., no PL or DMPL/DPL designations). Proofs are super-rare and expensive so you don't need to worry about them. Nothing even remotely close to VAM stuff (which is over my head anyway).

Plus, the premiums to gold except for the super-expensive pieces are on the order of 50-500% for the most part, whereas for Morgan's its obviously much higher for many of the coins CT folks look at.

Like I said, for a generic or common Saint -- even on Ebay -- you don't see the price discrepancy I noted earlier on the Morgan's. Unless something is CLEARLY misgraded (very rare) or has the "+" or CAC designation, the price seems to be about within 5% (let alone 10%) of CDN pricing or recent auctions. That's actual sales, not asking prices. I see some guy asking $2,800 for a plain 1924 Saint the last few months on Ebay and getting nowhere. Unless gold moves up $500 an ounce, he's not gonna get any action without cutting his/her price.

And unless something happens to the coin market in general or Saints in particular (like in 1989), you are going to see the prices pretty much track gold bullion. Gold goes up $200, the MS-65 commons will move, too. But if gold is steady and if there are no outside forces buying/selling in bulk generic commons or mildly-rare dates/mints, the prices are pretty stable month-to-month and year-to-year.

At least that's been my experience since I started tracking it a few years ago and then did research further back.

 

We agree; note I said "by and large."

There are, for instance, almost 100k 1924-P Saints in MS64 between NGC and PCGS, with no real value pressure in 65 to motivate crackouts. Although there are some stupendous numismatic Saint collections, one has to conclude that the overwhelming majority of them are investment coins.

 

Noted !

Gotcha....to me, an 'investment coin' for a classic would be something that is <5%, maybe 10%, premium to spot gold. So for the 1924 figure an MS-62 or MS-61. Still has some collectable value, but not much.

Was actually thinking of getting a low-60's Saint, one I could actually hold without it being in a slab or worrying about damaging it. Gonna look next time I go to a show and maybe pick up a raw one.

 

Two somebodies thought it had a chance at making the next grade and bid it up. They may also have seen it in hand at the preview.

 

Didn't think of that, thanks !

 

So the bottom line on my actual Search....I did bring up the most recent auctions correctly for an 1879-S MS-67 CAC Morgan, right ?

 

Answer me this because I have trouble with the rationale: why would anyone buy old gold coins as an investment when gold American eagles are available without the numismatic premium? More than a few unwitting investors have been taken to the cleaners by buying expensive old coins as financial investments.

 

Leverage to the gold price, I would guess.

Also, many (older) investors do not understand that they may be paying way more than the price of 1 oz. of gold (or 1 oz. of silver) for some of their coins. This is what led to so many people getting burned in the 1989-90 Coin Bubble.

I buy both pure gold coins (Eagles, Maple Leafs, Pandas, Kruggerands, etc.) and numismatics (Double Eagle Saints, Liberty's eventually). I guess you CAN collect modern gold coins, but there's not that sense of history.

I originally was only into modern coins and then got into the classic stuff.

 

Is there any reason why all these Morgans seemed to go for the same price over a period of many months:

http://www.ha.com/c/search-results....Ntt=1879-S+ms63+reverse&ic4=ArchiveTab-071515

I keep seeing $517, $705, and $587.50. Just wanted to know if it was a coincidence.

 

and how long it take to get your coin as a buyer

 

Because older coins do not simply track melt value; they have numismatic value which helps to ameliorate the volatility of precious metals prices. This is a good thing, even though it means you'll pay more for a Liberty Double Eagle than a bullion Eagle. Nobody in their right mind expects a consistent rate of growth for any coin or precious metal at all, at least not if you're thinking in terms of less than decades. Might as well throw your money at examples less-dependent on the foibles of a market in which many traders have no clue what they're doing.

 

517 = 440 + 17.5% bp
587.50 = 500 + 17.5% bp
705 = 600 + 17.5% bp

If you check HA's site (http://www.ha.com/c/ref/web-tips.zx?ic=Tab-BidBuy-BiddingBetweenIncrements-111815#increments), $500 is where the bid interval goes to $50.

$200 - $499 $20
$500 - $999 $50

So the normal sequence of full bids is

... 400 420 440 460 480 500 550 600 650 ...

 

Welcome to the Morgan challenge!

It's very difficult to get in the minds of bidders, but in general, the "+" on a label leads to higher premiums. Throw in the CAC sticker and the bids sometimes just don't make sense. Many people will pay a big premium for that "+" designation.

Take the third coin in the list: PCGS 05875545. Based on my knowledge of HA pictures, the fields appear to be highly reflective. Not enough to earn a PL, but I'll bet they are very nice.

The first NGC coins appears to have some hazy toning at 11 on the obverse. There are a few small but deep marks at 6 o'clock on the obverse. The strike does not appear to be strong for an early "S" mint coin either. See the lack of detail in the hair above the ear. If I were bidding on the coin, I would not have bid strong money for that one.

As mentioned, trying to explain the difference in pricing, one or more of the bidders might have thought a coin was a potential upgrade as well. Another factor might have been 2 PCGS registry "setters" wanting to add points to their set. Another factor might have been where the contact marks might have been on the coin.

I didn't look through all the coins. I got the flu over the weekend and just didn't have the patience to do a proper analysis of the coins. I'm still not 100%, so this answer is also lacking more analysis.