State of the Hobby

Yes, it gets lonely at times. Most folks who do what I do are hired to be "yes men". I got that clear with my guy from the get-go. He gets the unvarnished truth from me.

He gets to vote in the chamber, and I get to tell him he was wrong and why - in private.

 

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I think the ANA board needs some new life and new ideas. Too many good ole boys in charge and I think we need some creative new blood to get interest beyond the 65+ crowd

 

I honestly believe that from you; I can't imagine you not being a diligent person. But, living in the same state as you, I can also believe your loneliness.

 

When I first got on the Internet in 2000 I became interested in Lincoln Cent BIEs. I accumulated several hundred of them in about 8 months and my excitement towards them began to dwindle.

In the past, a collector in 1965 might spent five years or more to collect several hundred BIEs-- buying and trading with other collectors, writing letters, drawing pictures of what he had to trade with or trying to make sense of someone elses sketches. Nothing happened fast or in abundance.

This speed and so much access to so much, including ready to go info, I think is a real danger to coin collecting. I think the speed (and abundance in many areas) causes bordom or burn out. Isn't that also called diminishing marginal returns?

Or maybe speed, efficiency and abundance is really the fast lane to atrophy city.

 

But new fortune seekers will be a very small percent compared to the young numismatists who will disappear. The mint and the BEP offered many items within economic reach of the young market. The fortune seekers will be looking for higher end items making it a buyers market, taking from those who are left and want out. They intern, will have fewer buyers as well. Eventually only the highest of quality coins will be in demand to just a few who are left. It will eventually become a hobby of the kings again. IMHO.

 

Then who's going to buy the bazillions of Morgans available for $50-ish?

 

The most important statistic isn't whether or not hobby publications are growing or the prices of some specific coin is going up or down. What matters most is the number of collectors in the hobby and this appears to be going up sharply. Of course these new collectors aren't buying $10,000 New Jersey colonials and many aren't buying much at all except some supplies and an occasional inexpensive coin but it takes time. Collectors take time to become numismatists and they take time to acquire collections.

In twenty years the hobby will be larger and more vibrant than ever before. It will be different because it will be composed of different people but they will be just as passionate and just as knowledgeable as we are.

 

They may end up as bullion rounds and those that don't weigh correctly, melted. But this is just a guess. If they call in all cash so we are a cashless society (This premise, the disappearance of the mint and the BEP, is where this statement is actually from), you will have a period of time to exchange them for electronic credits and then they will be demonetized and become worthless. That seems to be the pattern when ever a new monetary vehicle is introduced. So if your currency collection is worth $30,000 and you didn't exchange it, you either loose your investment totally or roll the dice hoping that it will still mean something to somebody someday; maybe.

 

So what's the government going to pay for the Jack Lee 1896-S MS69 Morgan? Or the EB On Wing Brasher Doubloon? Or the 1913 Liberty Nickels?

 

Making predictions, is at best, an iffy undertaking, especially in the ever-changing high tech world we live in today. Someplace around here I have a National Geographic from the moon launch era which had NASA explaining how we would land men on Mars by 2010.

 

What Kurt (can I call you that?) says about baby boomers retiring from colllecting or otherwise leaving the hobby does make sense. No one lives forever. One retiring collector of military trade tokens was selling off his collection and I was fortunate enough to buy a good chunk of it up.

I think the U.S. collectors and the market will deflate. I think this because what turned me off will turn others off but I'm biased. The greed, crack-out games, stickers, stars, plusses, registry sets, etc. just becomes a silly game of one-upping then coin containers become more interesting than the coins. Collectors will get interested in world coins, ancients, and exonumia - actual coins will be what they're after. With information being easier to come by true rarities will become important not...what's the word...condition rarities. This is what I think it will be like in the future.

 

Well said Jwt708!

 

1884-S Morgans are pretty common until you try to find one in Mint State, at which time they become the most expensive of all Morgans in grade. Maybe we're (um, "I'm") just splitting hairs here, though.

 

Ahh sweet 84s. I used to have a thing for buying au from bad pics hoping for a soft strike ms back when I knew very little about morgans. Still do actually but now I have the knowlege behind me. Lost a couple bucks on a few early on but have made a bunch of $ on others. Don't ask me why but I have a thing for em. They were my first study of conditional rarity and weak strikes. I guess that's probably why

 

When I say that coin collecting will be declining over time, I admittedly am talking about "real" collecting - as in buying the coin with NO current plan on selling it for a profit. I'm talking "buy and hold" on steroids. Fast buck flipping (these guys can all get lost FAIC) will continue as will the very high end collections - Heritage and Stacks Bowers glossy catalog stuff. But non-wealthy people assembling true collections? It's already all but over.

As for "the economy", this, right now, is the "from now on" definition of a good U.S. economy. It only gets worse from here; this is as good as it gets. Globalization has always had the goal of impoverishing the western rich world to economically build up the third world, and the process is well under way.

 

Just because you don't hold forever doesn't mean you aren't doing "real" collecting. Tastes change over time, it makes sense to sell what no longer brings the joy it once did for something that will make someone happier. Not everyone has an unlimited budget where they can sit on everything till the end. A lot of collectors have to sell things off to help finance nicer purchases, it does not make them any less of a collector

 

As long as there is no sales plan when the purchase is made, it counts. But if you're thinking "I can move this to some guy" , it doesn't.

 

Everything grows and changes with time as you know kurt. Sure, the old stuffy way of collecting may be dying but that's only because flipping and profit has become the dominant force with the internet. It affords a collector with the ability to easily make $ on coins outside of their collecting interests to fund those that are. I can't even imagine how boring the hobby was back then

 

Haha baseball. We double posted the same info. Love it when that happens

 

Flippers and profit takers make me sick. I believe they are a scourge on the hobby.