State of the Hobby

Look, I buy online too. And I REALLY have come to hate most small shows. But I thrive on megashows, like NYINC, FUN, Whitman, and especially ANA NMS and WFoM conventions. I rarely buy. I go to LISTEN and LEARN. I do websites, but they leave me cold. I want to interact person to person, pick brains, and share some stinking fellowship, capische?

 

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Really?

 

And we WILL rue this era, when no one's left in journalism.

 

Yup, really.

 

I think journalism is just as strong as ever. It's paper publications that are on the way out. Who wants to go dig the paper out of a snow bank or pick it up out of a puddle when all those articles and much more are already in your pocket.

 

Any statistical facts to support the end of the numismatic world?

I'm not one to buck the system (too much ), but I'm not gonna jump in line and follow the masses to the impending implosion without some statistics to back it up, sorry.

 

I suspect Steve Ivy would disagree with you.

How about, instead of spouting dismal pessimism, you make some sort of effort towards improving the situation? I enjoy your postings (well, those which provide content rather than pessimism) and sense of humor but man, you are a downer.

 

And if a cashless society becomes reality, there will be no mint or BEP products to attract any new collectors. I think that has a large negative expectation for the hobby as well.

 

I see that situation driving prices of existing products higher, ultimately attracting new fortune seekers...

 

Honestly - not to speak ill of those who concentrate their collecting efforts on Moderns and Mint products - that's a loss irrelevant to a large plurality of collectors. Although it'd cause a serious shakeup in the number of dealers, those whose concentration is on older issues would be relatively unaffected. In fact, it would raise the level of interest significantly in anything currently circulating/existing, even the bazillions of current Modern mintages. Value is a function of interest, rarity and demand, and excessive new issues dilute demand.

 

That is all well and good. The point wasn't to bash the in person side of collecting, just that it has largely been moved to the digital world like everything else. Shows may or may not see an improved uptick in attendance with a better economy, but traveling to them does cost money and there are A LOT of shows now if you are willing to travel.

A changing dynamic of how things are done is hardly evidence of the death of the hobby when you can see those same chances in all aspects of life

Won't happen in our life time. While cities are almost cashless societies at this point, if you get out of the large metropolitan areas the majority of the country still regularly uses cash. Not for every purchase but a few times a week at least where in a city a lot of people don't even bother to carry cash.

 

All cars 1996 and later have OBD2 compliant computers in them that log data. Simple data - telemetry, throttle, brake sensors, air/fuel ratio and engine faults (especially emissions devices). They just continue to get worse and worse as years go by.

You can elect to turn off concierge features on your car, and if the dealer won't - there are companies out there that will for a small fee.

This is reality. Jeep has now patched the exploit - but there will be more as we continue to integrate the "internet of things" into our lives.

http://www.wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-highway/

As the two hackers remotely toyed with the air-conditioning, radio, and windshield wipers, I mentally congratulated myself on my courage under pressure. That’s when they cut the transmission.

Immediately my accelerator stopped working. As I frantically pressed the pedal and watched the RPMs climb, the Jeep lost half its speed, then slowed to a crawl. This occurred just as I reached a long overpass, with no shoulder to offer an escape. The experiment had ceased to be fun.

 

One does not simply collect coins without being a hermit.

 

The Steve Ivy segment of the market is the immune segment - that catering to the high end, the überwealthy collector. That segment will do fine, better than fine. But the average collector segment, the album hole filler is going downhill FAST. Look, the baby boomers are starting to retire. We are at peak earnings now. The segment will shrink. It has to. There are both fewer PEOPLE to replace us and even FAR fewer who even notice coins. We are dinosaurs. The best we can hope for is that our bones get into the cool museums.

You don't want to believe me? Fine. Tell it to Dave Harper at NN.

 

What about the speed by which collectors can accumulate material in on-line auctions? Or web-sites that you can seach out in a few hours vs dozens of snail mail letters as we had to do in the old days. I would think the speed of Internet may be as much a detriment to collecting as it is an asset if it causes too much diminishing marginal utility????

 

My state government doesn't pay me to be an optimist; they pay me to be correct.

 

Well first off, this site is totally dead and hardly gets any traffic. That is the first indicator.

If you're looking at magazine subscriptions as a bellwether, you are building on false data. I had religious subscriptions to Hot Rod, Car and Driver and Road and Track since I was about 15 or so, right up until around 2000 or so when I found that I could get more info off the internet. That's what is happening on this site - we've replaced static print with interactive discussion.

Second - the economy is just starting to recover - from a huge population that was broke and in debt for a long time. Many sold out, many never started.

This was seen in all hobbies. I saw this in racing, tracks were shut down, car clubs abandoned (EPA didn't help either - but I digress). SCCA membership was down sharply, autocross events started disappearing. Nobody had disposable income - and a large portion of those that do are investing frugally due to hard lessons learned.

In 2012 at the local race track they had a 3rd of the seats filled. Last year we had standing room only, and almost twice the racing participants.

I think singling out the numismatic hobby is a narrow focus of what's happening across the nation and world.

I will say that 2 years ago when my wife and I started our business, I was winning a majority of the estate auctions I attended locally. Gold/silver coins, jewelry, silverware, etc... I'd usually walk away winning 80% or better of the lots I bid on.

These days I'm winning less than half, probably closer to a third - simply because more people are attending and buying.

Things are getting better slowly, but a lot of people are just looking to get back to normalcy.

 

If you're saying the Internet is no panacea and has its own perils, I agree. We're still in the Internet infatuation phase. It will become the fat lazy spouse eventually.

 

Traffic? Who cares? 95% or more of the traffic is the same 20 guys. Whoopie!

 

You'd be the only one these days...