Buy early communist Chinese aluminum. Buy 1982-P quarters that are well struck by new dies. Buy Indian c/n from the '70's in BU. Buy Fijian c/n. Buy Japanese coins that weren't in mint sets. I could go on and on but you won't find the coins. What makes them special at all is that there are so few of them and their current low prices makes them unavailable. Once the price goes much higher they'll be available but who knows if it willgo higher yet or not.
I scanned the Web and found two funds -- one calling itself a hedge fund -- that invest in "rare coins." Both were formed in the past five years. Couldn't find anything beyond the announcement of their formations. I would read the prospectus VERY carefully.
Okay... but the point I was trying to get at is that it would be telling if the person asking the question were to instead explain exactly why they feel coins are such easy investments. It's almost always a 1 + 2 = 10 type scenario where nothing other than buy, sit, and collect windfall is truly considered, and this is what I fail to understand. This has nothing to do with mint claims, potential down-the-road demand vs. mintage, or the sale of a collection the average Joe on the street would know nothing about, but simply why everyone from fools to otherwise intelligent individuals are so willing make such a blanket assumption. This is similar to how so many seem to think being a dealer a path to easy money. How many times have we had someone with no real knowledge or experience with coins come here and ask how to profit from them? Not just a few kids, but adults as well. Perhaps, instead of simply saying coins are generally poor investments, or people using it as an opportunity to convince themselves their personal preferences are better than the next guy's, if such people were to explain their mindset, their question could be discussed in a more tailored and helpful manner. It could also be helpful to someone else not participating in the thread but has similar ideas. I can only imagine how confusing these threads, with conflicting and all over the board responses, must be to the uninitiated.
Even the Finest, in Modern Coinage, is easily trumped by a 1 point higher grade which is very easy for an astute collector. It's at that point that the profits fall sharply. I have several that were, at one time, top pops and a couple which were solitary population coins. All that becomes meaningless when others are found and given the "prices" of those next higher grades, someone gets left holding the bag. Don't get me wrong, collecting these varieties can be fun and personally rewarding BUT they are far from being good "investment" coins since the next "Top Pop" can be just one roll away! You and I know that 90% Silver Kennedy's were hoarded by the millions. What happens when they get moved to the CPG "Appendices"? Or even dropped from the "Registries"? At that point, its "AMF"! Adios Money Factory! A good "investment" is one which climbs in value over the long haul. Sure, it can drop in price but usually only temporarily. It then would achieve an even higher price at a later auction. "Thin Markets" are not good "Investment Markets" and Modern Coins, in general, are lousy investments since the Modern Coin Market tends to be very "fickled".
I recall one "Investment Entity" which was associated with GovMint.com (aren't they the one's which purchased Modern Coin Mart?) which were shopping out the Jefferson Missing Edge Lettering Presidential Dollars to their client lists by telephone. Asking price for an MS65 example was ................ $2,950.00 (Date 4/18/2008) Today's PCGS Price Guide Value (which is always on the high side)...... $215.00 A reliable source was quoted as saying that a "firm" wanted $7,950 for MS67 examples of the MEL Jefferson's. Today's PCGS Price Guide Value (which is always on the high side).....$1,000 If you've mastered 3rd Grade Math, you'll see the moral in this story.
Yes it was really going on, and it wasn't just Morgans. It was the entire coin market. This simple graph does an excellent job of portraying just how bad it was. http://www.pcgs.com/images/graphs/indexallgraph.gif
There was more than 1 fund, if memory serves Merrill Lynch started it off and other brokerage houses followed their lead. How this came about was a direct result of the inception of the TPGs, PCGS in particular. PCGS was founded in '86, and a large part of their initial advertising campaign was based on claims the company made that coins could now be considered investments, purely because of what PCGS was doing - grading and slabbing the coins. To understand how and why this worked you'd have to know and understand the previous history of the coin market. But to save me from writing a book here let's just acknowledge that it did happen. There had never been anything like PCGS before, and then the following year NGC came along, founded by the same people that started PCGS. Suddenly you had coins graded by those who were supposed to know how, backed up by a guarantee, and sealed in plastic holders that were touted to be tamper proof. The result, everybody felt better, more secure, about buying coins. And since the TPGs were using the word "investment" in their advertising, well, Wall St. decided they could, and should, jump on the bandwagon. And jump they did. And when they did the coin market rocketed upwards, as seen in that graph above. Problem was, it didn't stay there. It fell just as fast, maybe even faster, than it went up. People lost millions. And when people lose millions the same that always happens - happened. Somebody had to be blamed. PCGS and Wall St. were the culprits, suits were filed, initiated by the FTC in 1990. The Wall St. boys quickly closed down their funds and threw 'em on the scrap heap. PCGS agreed to settle, agreeing to never again use the word "investment" in their advertising. They further agreed to include statements in its newspaper and television advertising affirming that ''the rare coin market is a highly speculative, unregulated market and certification by P.C.G.S. does not guarantee protection against the normal risks associated with volatile markets.'' As a result of all this the coin market fell to levels even lower than it was before the TPGs came on the scene. And now, today, 25 years later it is still 64% lower than its peak. All of those people who bought coins back then are still losing money.
Thanks for filling us in. Guess that story demonstrates better than any about the hazards of coin collecting as an investment. That is the ugliest chart I have ever seen!
Lee - We collect for the fun of the "Hobby" but after the latest Heritage round of auctions there were several varieties (in lower grades) that sold for between $1800 - $2800 that we picked up for under $30. Personally, we can't wait to see what the next edition of the CPG brings to the table.
What are you trying to say Tim? That you bought $1800-$2800 coins for $30 or that you bought coins for $30 and sold them for $1800-$2800?
Just saying that several of our varieties that we paid under $30 for sold in the same or lesser grades on Heritage auction(s) this past month for $1,800 - $ 2,800.
That isn't always true. Case in point is the gold kennedy the OP was talking about. Less than a month after they came out they could be purchased in the aftermarket for LESS than the mint price. True but frequently not as fast as the rate of inflation. The number of dollars is more but the return in REAL dollars or the purchasing power of those dollars is LESS than the dollars invested. But from 35 years ago it's a lousy investment (Would have to be $2,185 an oz just to break even. Just holding a long time isn't important, timing in and out is critical. I remember 1881-s dollars in MS-65 being bid at that price. A couple years later I was able to buy them for $30.
Absolutely! There's no money in modern US Mint coins to speak about at all. The couple of times I thought I would flip and make a small profit didn't pan out at all. Don't waste your time.