Deflating Ancients Bubble

I keep my finger firmly on the pulse of the ancients market, mostly coins in the $50 - $250 range, and I can tell you that a bubble is quickly deflating. I've have some dealer friends tell me they've had one of the slowest summer in years, and personally I've been sitting on the fence about A LOT of coins on my wishlist, looking on with a wry smile while retailers try to push prices into the stratosphere.

This isn't a criticism, mind you. That's just how markets work, but if you're looking for ancient coins, this is a good time to buy. When Roma starts slashing its prices on vcoins and I start winning auctions at CNG, you know it's a bear market.

 

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Better start looking eh?
Thanks for the info JA.

 

Did any of you watch Heritage's Platinum night last week? They had only a hundred or so ancient coins. Many were estimated too high to begin with and some of those had reserve prices set at the estimate! The result: many unsold lots. I wonder if the consignors were obstinate and unrealistic or if Heritage set the prices. Either way, it was a failure of an auction for Heritage.

There may be a lull right now but the major auctions coming up this fall have a dizzying array of spectacular coins.

 

Of course, if I were smart, I'd keep my big mouth shut. The only thing my post can accomplish is making the market bullish.

 

Its been hit of miss with me. Some things maintaining, others a little weakness. I have had a little more success in the more prestigious auctions than usual though. But, summer is summer, almost always the doldrums. The real test will be the fall auction season.

 

I keep hoping for several tetradrachms on my wish list to get markdowns, so far, nope :/

Ive gotten some good scores this year, so far, but it's pretty much been an average with the amount i've gotten year to year.

 

You may be right JA. I haven't been in the buying mode for most of this year, but when I look, coin prices seem awfully high and are not selling. On Ebay, they just keep getting relisted. Maybe the bottom will fall out or maybe sellers will get the idea that higher prices won't make them more money. Maybe.

 

I must not be looking at the right coins, because my batting average at CNG, Pecunem etc is worse than it's ever been. Either that or I'm just getting cheaper.

In any case, I hope you're right! I'm looking forward to what the fall auctions will show.

 

Actually, thinking about it, this might explain some luck with group lots lately. I just got a lot of Greek Bronze and shocked I got these for the price. All five of them are nice VF, and one is a Medusa portrait, and two others scarce Colchis issues. I understand the Colchis maybe, as being obscure, but a VF Medusa 3/4 bust and snakes in her hair as part of a $130 lot? I thought they were more in demand than that, if only from non-collectors.

 

Then of course you've got your vcoins sellers that are resisting, lol...

 

I'm looking at the results from Heritage's Roman Republican and Roman Imperial coins and the results look pretty strong -- almost all sold for well over their (lowball) estimate/starting price. Only three lots unsold, and maybe these were estimated too high.

Auctions can be high-variance events. If two or more buyers get caught up in a bidding frenzy, the final price might bear no resemblance to the future value of a coin, at least not for many years. Mediocre coins with high estimates usually don't fool the kinds of bidders who frequent these auctions. On the other hand, very high quality coins usually shine at such auctions, especially if the auction house aggressively markets those coins to its known customers.

I also wonder about the lowballing of starting prices and/or estimates. Take this example at the upcoming Kunker auction:

This has a ridiculously low starting price of 40,000 Euros despite the fact that it sold at the January 2009 Lanz auction for $105,000 plus 15% buyer's fee! This is clearly a $150,000+ coin, but the starting price is low to encourage a lot of bidding and excitement. I'll be surprised if it fetches less than $200K, but we'll see.

It's always best to set a budget whenever you venture into any auction for any level of coin, and be prepared to be a little flexible but not excitable. I've won a number of bargains with this approach, but lost more than a few that ended up 3x - 5x time my maximum bid, and 8x - 10x times the estimate.

 

I stopped watching prior to the Romans and didn't have any of those on my watch list (not that I was bidding on any...). There were twelve unsold Greek and Eastern lots.

15 unsold lots in a 105 lot auction is a lower sell rate than I recall seeing for most premium auctions. Granted, I'm a newbie

 

I see what you're saying: lots 32001 through 32105 had 15 unsold lots, a relatively high percentage. My personal observation is that most of those lots started too high, but it's also possible that one or more was suspect as to authenticity.

 

The market for lower value coins (less than $300) might be stagnating a bit, but the higher value stuff is at least holding steady. I wonder if this is in part an effect of the new MOUs that keep coming out. Its worthwhile to do the paperwork and take the risk for a higher value coin, but its not really worth it for the cheap stuff.

 

I've been wondering if all those MOUs are having an effect. My interest in Roman Egyptian coins has grown and it seems like the prices are now higher. However, it is more likely that my taste for higher quality Roman Egyptians has led to finding understandably higher price tags.

 

At the same time, other MOU's have expired. I've received a number of nice coins at low prices from Cypriot dealers.

 

I'm very gun shy for dealers from Cyprus. Almost as bad as Bulgarian sellers.

 

That has not been my experience, but I'm trading in low-value coins that don't get counterfeited. I would not buy more expensive coins from anyone but long-standing, trusted dealers with lifetime guarantees.

 

Well, you know me. Mr. Cheapskate himself. I don't traffic in high dollar coins either, but there are at least two Cypriot sellers that only sell fakes. And they are good fakes. Convincing fakes that is. Maybe I need to look once again.

 

Fakes are everywhere. You've got to be just as careful shopping in England and Germany as Cyprus.