Modern silver commemoratives pricing question

Hey all,

What drives the pricing on a lot of the modern commemorative coins? I enjoy the silver $1.00 coins a lot, but it's interesting to see such differing prices among them. Especially the ones from the past 5 years are so. They are quite a bit more expensive. Is this because of the number minted/rarity? Demand of the design? Silver or issue pricing? All?
I've been looking at some early 90's coins and can get them for around $25 or so. But today's March of Dime's coin is north of $50, over twice as much.
What's the scoop?

 

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Tater, if I knew that, I'd be making money.

 

Seems like most of them go up at first, then fall back toward melt. Perhaps the initial spike is driven by speculators looking for top-grade examples. It doesn't seem like there's much long-term collector demand for them.

 

Hehe.. fair enough.

Yeah, I guess so. Not sure I want to drop $50 bucks on a coin that will be $25 if I wait a little while. Then again, the '91 issue I was checking was about $30 new, and so it hasn't dropped that much. Maybe these $50 would only drop similarly.

Then, heck, I look at last years baseball hall of fame coin and those have gone up quite a bit from original issue price... can't find one for under $65. So I guess trying to predict what they'll do is a conundrum.

 

I only buy the uncs because I like them, with that frosty look, they look more like the old silver dollars than the proofs, and they always turnout to be the lowest mintage and appreciate more. If you bought one of each from the mint starting in 1983, you would have paid somewhere around $2,600 and today they book for around $6,000, and that's in OGP, they book for a lot more if you had cherry picked MS/SP-70's. As always supply & demand drives the market, some are way up, some aren't. So, just like stocks, you may lose if you try to pick only the winners, but if you diversify, by buying at least one of each, you have a winning portfolio over time.

 

If I could sell coins of any sort consistently at "book value", I'd be going about this business very differently indeed.

 

True, but, even so, the whole series could be sold for much more than cost and timing matters. And, as far as picking 70's look at what those early ones, that sell for melt with problems, go for in 70. So, like has been mentioned many times, learn to grade, and learn to differentiate between a 69 and a 70, don't just blindly sock away whatever the mint sends you.

 

I'm not really in it for the "winning portfolio." I just like 'em.

But I'm not above getting a good deal on the purchase, and avoiding paying twice as much!

So far, ebay has really been the only spot I could snag anything. If anyone has additional suggestions on good online places, let me know.

 

I think you said it, you collect them because you like them, but you don't want to lose money either, liking a coin and having it appreciate is always preferred.

eBay is the dumping ground for problem coins in OGP. If I have to buy a coin on eBay, I buy it certified or count on returning many until you get a nice one in OGP. For future issues, buy from the Mint.

Also, some LCS's and most shows I go to have many commems - there's no substitute for inspecting a coin in hand.

 

I'm not entirely sure that this is correct for the main stream bullion silver coins, not too sure about the commemoratives. I don't like the March of dimes but really like the U.S. marshall coin and everyone has an opinion, often different. Some coins I prefer as proof, others as UNC - I try to get both Eagles. I'm fairly certain I can at least break even on pretty much all I have selling privately and not in a fire sale. I'd like to have an option to buy at almost melt any silver.

 

Depends. Some of the low mintage ones have held value (e.g. Jackie Robinson, and some of the 96 Olympics coins). Others have been the panic demand ("I didn't get one from the mint, so I am desperate) mentality.

 

But to what degree of 'problem coins?' If someone opened one up, and noticed it wouldn't be a perfect 70, so they're unloading it, I'm OK with that. I don't need it to be a perfect 70, and I'd like to avoid paying the extra cost for grading. Now, if there's a huge scratch or divot or something, then that isn't good.

 

Yeah, I don't pay a huge premium for a 70, but I do cherry pick them from the Mint or dealers' stock because they will appreciate the most and I like a coin that doesn't have a nick or spot I focus on every time I look at it. As for eBay, yeah, you will get some in OGP with big problems that should be returned or at minimum a little problem that will hold down future appreciation. So, as with any coin, it boils down to how much effort you put into acquiring it, which will payoff down the road. Just look at the classic collections or even moderns, where the collectors knew what they where doing and chose the best for their collection.

 

Well, you nailed it. Got one in today from an ebay sale and it's got a spot on it that is pretty wonky.

It's rough. I really prefer these in the original packaging by a long shot over the slabs. But I guess there is no alternative place to buy them this way other than a gamble on eBay.

 

Another thing to try is look for eBay sellers that post good pics of the actual coin for sale. Now and then you find one that does and it's a good one. But it looks like, overall, sellers are dumping.

 

How???... when the graders themselves can't differentiate b/t 69 and 70.

 

Can you do that?

 

Sure, more times than not.

 

Give me a choice between 69 and 70 for a coin and I can be right 50% of the time.