Is numismatics going the way of philately?

Hmm...Interesting point @V. Kurt Bellman about this hobby and common man collecting. Guess I haven't considered it from that perspective. I think common man collecting will likely remain even in the event of a significant downturn in mid-range coins for the same reasons new collectors come to the hobby in the first place - because they're attracted to coins! I personally had no interest in the coin market before I started collecting - I just thought it would be cool to one day give my son a set of coins that were in use 100 years before he was born along with a set of coins from his birth year. I didn't give a thought to how circulated grades of Barbers were worth melt where they previously carried a numismatic premium, never heard of the 1950 D nickels and the prices they were sold for, or Morgans losing value once the GSA horde was unveiled to the public. I wanted something historic and tangible to pass along and I think coins will always have that attraction. I am absolutely a common man and my coins are my most prized possession. I don't think I'm alone in this mindset either. Heck, it would be great for me if classic coinage takes a big hit too then maybe I can get in on some of the action! I don't think numismatics will ever die off as a hobby because they are money and everyone likes money.

 

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I feel like investors and hoarders should start their own group and have there own clubs and shows.

 

They already do! They're called PNG Pre-Shows. Wow, who said that?

VoiceOver commentary:

Kurt cringed visibly, steeling himself for the onslaught of "without us dealers, there is no hobby" posts that was sure to come. He was a decent enough guy, if too often sarcastic, but Kurt also too often forgot that in numismatics, as in many fields, advertisers get veto power over editorial content.

 

Sorry about my sentence structures. I sometimes get a hurry and don't pay attention to what I'm typing.

 

I did not type this.

 

nm

 

That is the perfect example. We have record numbers of suicides, people are starving, more people are homeless than ever, murders, cities collapsing financially. All of these are on the rise. History is playing itself out again. As for the titans of industry, if it weren't for them the US would not be the world's most powerful country. The old titans are replaced by new ones.

Look at the price that the Newman collection brought in. If I'm not mistaken, over $22 million. There will always be the elite collectors in any hobby. That's without question. But there will always be the average collector. We lose many collectors over the years in the hobby. You probably know more about the ANA's membership roll than I do. Some lose interest, some lose money...this drives them away from the hobby. Now we have to add one more thing: the fake coins that are so abundant out there, even in slabs.

As for the modern ms-70, sure there's a bubble. To what extent, I cannot tell you. When it bursts, sure people will be disillusioned. But as long as the base collectors stay the same there will be hardly a ripple felt in the collecting world. I don't know what type of an analyst are you for the government but on the recoveries of the past the government played a large part and so did business.

 

Granted, I am not aware of California's revenue laws; my expertise is about 2700 miles east of Saddle Ridge. But if you're trying to goad me into defending the federals, wow, do YOU have the wrong guy!

As for knowledge of the ANA's membership roll trends, yes, there I have some knowledge, and the picture is VERY ugly. On the first two days at ANA Portland, fewer than 500 attendees, not counting dealers, showed up. Yes, Saturday was good, but it had that word "Free" attached to it, meaning it's revenue value was, umm, minimal.

The membership is hemorrhaging, and second year retention of members stinks in particular. The official show auction catalog wasn't even a decent comic book in thickness. Yup, all is peachy!

As for what kind of analyst I am, I am tasked not merely with capturing and regurgitating data (any data mining software can do that), but in helping people understand its meaning and how to use it, or not as the case may be. I don't worship data for its own sake, I make it take voice. I am not paid to spin data into happy talk. We have political operatives for that. As a result, I am restricted from press access. Politicians can't allow truth tellers to talk to the press.

 

You don't think the government plays a part in recoveries ?
As for the show free will all ways get them in

 

I personally don't see overpriced moderns (e.g. 70's) or grading company shenanigans (e.g. resubmiting for grade boosting) as the biggest threats to the hobby. I believe counterfeiting is public enemy number one. Advancements in counterfeiting techniques has the ability to destroy all numismatic value.

 

This much I can tell you for certain - if and when any significant recoveries happen in Pennsylvania, the role of the state government will be as close to zero as anything ever gets. By constitution, our state tax rates must be flat and uniform, so our fiscal policy impact is nil. If we "kick a can down the road" all we get when we get there is a bigger can that will hurt the foot more. We're not allowed to monetize state debt. It comes out of the taxpayers' hides, and only from there. All of them, and at a uniform flat rate. "Pay me now, or pay me later, with accrued interest."

States can't engage in Keynesianism. Only the federals may. And yet this Congress refuses, even as the need explodes. Federal Reserve policy can only do so much. It is like trying to open a wooden hatch by pushing on its rope. Unless something is straining at the hatch, nothing happens. Congress' role is creating the push on the hatch, and they have largely defaulted on their duty since the recession began. The much-maligned stimulus was too late, far too little, and ended too soon.

As eventual Fed Chair Janet Yellen said when the depth of the crisis was beginning to be appreciated, by the formulas, the correct interest rate should have been negative 6 percent.

 

What was the best fake you ever personally saw? I keep reading and hearing about them, but precious few show examples of them. Wouldn't it be helpful to get the whole word out? The last time anyone passed one around where I was was Barry Stuppler at ANA 2013, I think, or maybe 2012. A fake Prospector round.

 

The fakes are a big problem. They're turning off a lot of people from the hobby. Not only the raw coins but the slabs. China has been producing unbelievable quality and seems to be getting better every time. Now a lot of fakes are coming out of Latvia. Before Latvia was one of the biggest places for fake stamps. You find them now all over the internet and occasionally in dealer stocks. But I don't see the ANA addressing this as a big problem. A lot of people are burying their heads in the sand with this one. Problem is, how would you stop it? Educating collectors more? But even then that's a tough one. When you start seeing fake silver quarters that have very little numismatic value, brings shivers to you.

 

The problem is partly cultural. Many Asian cultures are just not atuned to seeing counterfeiting something as being wrong. I am told (I don't personally know) that the Mandarin symbolic language had no symbols for concepts like "counterfeit" or "copyright" or "intellectual property". They didn't see copying or faking something as a problem. They bragged to the originators about it.

But those darned Latvians - what's their excuse?

The ANA are not the coin cops. They have no sua sponte enforcement powers. The only tool thay have is to sanction Dealer A if Dealer B brings a specific complaint to them and Dealer A is a member. And yes, their proper role is education. "De profundis".

 

Oh please, come on. You can't even believe that. They know exactly what they're doing with the counterfeit coins. Why would they be hiding them in shipments coming to the US and Europe? China symbolically shuts them down once in a while for counterfeiting.

The ANA has one big power: they can educate. Which I don't see them doing. The counterfeit should be one of their top priorities. That hurts existing collectors and potential collectors.

I'm guessing that you haven't seen the fakes. But they're extremely good. And they're getting better.

 

Your guess is correct, sir. On both counts. China MAYBE gets a pass for early misdeeds after the trade opened under Nixon. But no more. Apple, however, has China building their stuff with the FULL KNOWLEDGE AND TACIT AGREEMENT that their stuff is being ripped off. Apple pretends not to notice, and China pretends to care about it.

I've never seen the new fakes, also correct.

Re: the ANA and the fakes and education about them. How would you suggest fewer than three dozen people with thousands of members and multiple duties carry that off? I'm sure they'd be willing to take any serious suggestions in the spirit in which they're offered. As a National Volunteer, I'll offer my help. If you can help me with materials acquisition, I'll parlay that with my expertise with Apple Keynote to create visually stunning and informative presentations, and see to it that your name figures prominently in the end roll credits.

We can call it, "Hey, I got your Sundman lecture, pal, ... right here!"

 

I really wish it was just the lousy Apple products. My biggest concern is the counterfeit drugs that come into the US and Europe from China. The African countries are getting the hardest hit with them. We're not talking about a knockoff of a phone or a fake coin. We're talking about people's lives now. Many are dying because of these products coming into the marketplace and the greed of the suppliers that are putting them into the retail chain.

I don't know if you've ever seen one of the major ports in the US or in Europe, where you have thousands of containers being unloaded from the boats and the government unable to check every one. This is just a sin.

 

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I can only imagine. We did all see the west coast news footage, during the dock workers labor negotiations, though. My nearest port is Philly, and that's not exactly container ship central. They're busy trying to turn it into the next Liquefied Natural Gas port. [Sigh] I remember when Marcellus was the first name of the other team's power forward. [another wistful nostalgic sigh]

 

"Lousy Apple products?" You've crossed the line, sir!