Featured Numismatic Rarity vs Coin Value, my simple analysis

First my apologies if i misunderstood your words and replied in such a way that offended you.

Second, regarding your paragraph above, I would be cautious as to what you speak. You see I AM a legacy, in fact precisely so. I am heir to my family's businesses and have been groomed as such and I have also been taught by my father and grandfather to appreciate coins.

The thing is I was exposed to coins, I was exposed to finance, I was exposed to business, I was exposed to treasure hunting and exploring, and I have developed my own tastes and interests that I have been able to blend into my current life. That consists of serious coin collecting and appreciation in ways that my mentors never did.

You see I am a legacy that was taught very important things for and about our family, but also given the opportunity to blend and develop my own taste and touch to the things that we do now.

For instance I approach coins with a much more business intuitive mind than my forefathers. I have furthered the knowledge that we possess and have sought to further a legacy that was handed to me. But I also chose to do that and Because I was exposed early on, I have developed a more ingrained appreciation for coins, and can now understand why that has happened.

I understand the importance of what legacy means and entails, looking both forwards and backwards. I know the importance of honoring what and where my family came from, but also to make sure I leave a distinct mark and encourage my heirs to do the same. Either way I am reasonably certain that my children will have some appreciation for some of these interests that our family has already shared for three generations. It's my duty to teach them about their heritage and to nurture their own addition to that in such a way that it continues to honor our past generations and incorporate the new.

You realize I am aware of this right? Why else do you think I used the argument? Like I said. Good luck with that any time soon.

I am well aware of what marriage is and isn't. That discussion is irrelevant to coins, let's just leave it at that.

Oh, one other thing, I have yet to have children, but fully expect and want to one day. What would you suggest I do? Just not worry about their legacy because they aren't born and can't be involved right now?

 

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I'm going to agree to disagree with you here. yes those you describe don't value classic coins but really don't value other coins. for most significant coins the market is probably around 30 years old +. at that time those with the youthful attitudes you describe who venture into coins seem to be drawn over and over to the classic coins. at least this has been my experience. the people you talk about aren't going to support the coin market at all. most of the ones who do inevitably drawn to the classics from where ever they started, usually moderns.

 

Vic,

I'm not surprised you disagree. I would have guessed so from our prior conversations. Let us first agree that our experiences are vastly different for a variety of reasons - including but not limited to geography. In my home of Central Pennsylvania, most collectors seem to HATE slabs, even PCGS or NGC slabs. Coin collectors vary considerably by local collecting culture. While I love doing business over the Internet as you have, most collectors here would rather kill their own dog than even HAVE an Internet account at all. There also are not a whole bunch of brick and mortar dealers. All that makes the following true: the overwhelming way MOST serious collectors acquire new material in Central PA is by buying raw coins at farmers markets, flea markets, and especially local coin auctions. Does that sound like southern Nevada's coin culture?

I've travelled enough for ANA shows to have learned that collector cultures and collector expectations are HIGHLY influenced by localized norms. I'd no sooner sit at a bourse dealer's table and haggle over a coin than I would shoot MY dog, but many people enjoy that. Diff'rent strokes. I travel to EVERY ANA show and only rarely buy (or sell) ANY coins there. I go to serve the hobby and learn stuff by attending talks mostly.

 

I'm also wondering (actually I'm NOT, and that's the point) what happens when the last collector that was alive in 1964/5 dies. Will the silver vs. clad line of demarcation fetish disappear? Everything tells me "yes", but then again that view may be partly because I view silver stacking as a candidate for the next Diagnostic and Statistical Manual as a mental illness.

My son, when he was 16, put it in focus for me. We were at a local coin show with exhibits. One guy was exhibiting a "complete set" of nicely matched slabbed MS65 Washington Quarters, 1932-1964. My son correctly pointed out "complete set... NOT!" Several clad Washingtons are harder to find in 65 than many silver ones are.

 

Oh yeah, Doug, don't worry; I do COMPLETELY chalk it up to human nature, too. That's the point. I might be among the most strident critics of human nature you'll ever meet. I am a contrarian through and through. I do care a lot about truly exquisite clad pieces, and it is one of my specialties. I own a 1965 quarter, non-SMS, in NGC MS-67. Go look THAT ONE up. It's a high 3-figure coin.

I frankly never have understood the appeal of PM's particularly. I have always cared more about the surfaces of coin far more than how many protons are in its atomic nuclei. To the extent the market values PM based coins more, those are attributes about which I do not care. It is outside the realm of core numismatics if the value of a coin comes from melting it down, IMO.

 

ok i did look it up.

http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/5878

last 2 sold at ha for under $200 each. the pcgs coins run 500-700 but the ngc's just don't. what am i missing here?

 

That guy left months ago and vowed never to return.

 

i didn't see that in the 5 but maybe it will be in 5r. i do agree different experiences give you different opinions. but I'm going to hold fast to my opinion that classics will hold value, at least until we get to a point where counterfeits are no longer distinguishable from real coins.

 

Vic,

I'd be disappointed in your inconsistency if you did agree with me. We also agree that the pace at which counterfeits are improving is worrying to the point it could conceivably destroy the whole deal.

"What you're missing here" is that the market is as thin as any get, and maybe also that NGC just upped the chart price from $450 to $750 a couple of months ago. I don't put much stock in auction prices in that thin a market. Why not? Because I got mine for $20 on an Internet auction held by a mega dealer, presumably because I was the only one who knew what I was looking at, including that megadealer whose name starts with the name of a metallic element and ends with a unit of municipal government spelled with the ostentatious trailing "e".

Oh, and really? We're going to trust what PCGS says about NGC coins? A little like asking an guy's ex-girlfriend about him. Yeah, you'll get inside info, but it will be biased. Hint: my bias is I don't like PCGS even a little bit, and won't deal with them.

Remember, I am not a trend follower. If something's extremely popular, I stay away from it like it was a plague. If "no one" wants it, I'm on it like the white on rice. Example: I haven't looked at a Morgan dollar in almost 2 decades. So while people were falling all over themselves buying silver and gold like crazy in 2011, I was selling heavily. Fighting trends and looking intellectually for the "next thing" is the answer.

 

actually yes i do trust the pcgs data. it is just that. data. you can link to the auctions they quote and see the transaction for yourself. so if i can see 2 recent sales via ha, a trusted source of information, and see 2 transactions within the last 12 months then yes i will trust it.

 

That assumes 1) HA is the market, 2) that PCGS has their finger on the WHOLE market, and 3) a high end auction catalog is where you'd expect a coin like the one at hand to trade. I don't care for any of those 3 assumptions, but I distrust the 3rd one most of all.

By the way, with the quality that is the hallmark of your pieces, I think the market for that kind of material is stable. It's the guys shoving AG/G Barbers in Danscos who are whistling past the graveyard. I think today's kids, to the extent they do 19th century at all when they grow up, it will mostly be type. The superb pieces will be too out of reach, and the dreck too unattractive for date collecting.

 

Very interesting discussion. There are many examples where rarity does not necessarily mean high value.An example which I specialize in are Newfoundland coinage.Collectors are well aware of the super low mintages of these coins, yet in low grades can be bought few dollars.Not a well known collecting area and not as popular.Popularity wins over rarity in relation to monetary value in alot of cases.

 

Here's the thing with popularity winning out vs. rarity - it is the shorter run where that is true. Over a span of a few decades, the popularity of series is "sticky", due to education / indoctrination (which noun you feel more comfortable with reveals a lot) of younger collectors by the graybeards.

However, and this is my central thesis, over the LONG run, especially across generations, popularity is subject to change, but rarity will always be rarity. In other words, lack of supply creates its own demand in the end. If that were NOT true, the "key coin pricing effect", where a slightly rarer date can often sell for significant multiples of a slightly less rare piece, would be impossible to explain economically.

So who else believes in my thesis? Well, for starters, David Harper of Numismatic News. Who else believes in the rise of moderns? Start with David Lisot and Charles Morgan of CoinWeek. They spend their full time analyzing the coin business, not blindly doing what they've been doing for 50 years because they've been doing it for 50 years like many coin people do, because they apparently were so traumatized by 1965.

 

Yessiree Doug! Chasing financial returns based on what is hot now is a sure fire loser, whether you're talking collectables or financial assets. The last time I was buying Morgan's seriously was the mid-90's when no one cared. Bought a bunch of more common date CC GSA's for $50 bucks each, and ASE's for under $5.

Who came out of the 2008-09 crash smelling like a rose? People who bought banks and auto companies (particularly Ford equity and debt) when they were beaten to death and widows were cashing out their positions because they had no stomach for paper losses.

One exception: if your time horizon is VERY short, go ahead and follow a trend, but don't "fall in love with it". We still have bullion dealers linking through Twitter to 2010 stories. Anyone bothered to look at the 5-year chart lately?

 

I have always been particularly interested in the Braided Hair Half Cents, struck from 1849 to 1857, and often referred to as the "Poor Little Half Sisters." Total mintage for the entire 8 year series, (not including Proofs), is 544,510. Six of the years, 1849, 1850, 1854, 1855, 1856 and 1857 the mintage is > 60,000 per year. Although they are not common you can find a nice G/VG Braided Hair Half Cent for $50 or so.

In contrast the mintage of a 1914-D Lincoln Cent is 1,193,000, twice the number for the entire series of Braided Half Hair Cents, but it will cost you close to $150 for a nice G/VG coin. An amazingly the 1909-S Lincoln has a mintage of 484,000; nearly ten times the mintage of the 1849, 1850, 1856 and 1857 Half Cents; yet costs about $500-$700 for a G/VG coin.

DEMAND, (due to Popularity), is a more important factor than SUPPLY. Always has been and always will be.

 

"Marriage" has been defined in many ways by different cultures at different times. Plenty of cultures sanctioned plural marriages on various terms, for example.

I point this out not to engage in any kind of "political" debate, but it was the example suggested. Choose any other (realms of work, family, religion, government, arts)... Valuation of gold and silver really is pretty unusually enduring, as norms of human civilization go.

 

1. I believe coins sold on ha go for market value. When I review their records there are very few "off" prices I have seen ( I have never seen anything that substantially deviated from market value). Just my experience.

2. Pcgs has their finger on more online transactions then any other single source of information I have ever seen.

3. See #1.

The market for my collection is only as stable as the ability to detect counterfeits. When we lose this ability I believe my collections value will drop to near zero value.