The Official Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle Thread

This thread needs a picture.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

Agreed...makes sense...but then why are so many dealers 'sticky' on prices when the price of gold (or Saints) has fallen noticeably and they must know that anybody remotely aware of current pricing is going to realize they are 10/20/30% too high ?

I see it on Ebay all the time (like someone can't see past or current sales for similar years/mintages ?) but also at coin shows (less so) and LCSs (somewhat in-between).

It does make sense that someone at a show would be more price sensitive, you wouldn't want to go to the expense of travelling and then have knowledgeable buyers seeing you way high on price.

 

Makes sense, IM.....what would be most useful would be those people who bought at huge premiums in both 1988-90 and 1999-2002. The rising price of gold didn't bail anybody out.

In 1989, MS-66 Saint commons were $10,000 or more. That premium collapsed.

In 2000 or 2002 (I forget which), MS-65 Saint commons were $2,400 or so. Gold went up a ton but their price fell (again, the premium) over the next decade.

While 50-60% premiums can go lower, MOST of the hot-air has dissipated.

A good example of seller actions might be those 2 instances. It appears it takes a decade or so before sellers 'get religion.'

Using the SS Central America coins as a guide, I finally have seen some (some !) sellers of the re-strikes and the actual shipwrecked coins come down in price. This was a few years ago (I actually bought at about a 10% premium to bullion) after many had paid 200-500% premiums for some of the lower-priced 'retail' stuff.

Unfortunately, with the price of gold having fallen a few hundred dollars the last few years, I see the sellers resistant to chase the price of bullion lower. The price they could have gotten 2-3 years ago isn't available anymore, though NOW they'd take it.

 

You know what, GD ? You are absolutely correct. I don't know where I got those numbers from. I even started this thread with some pictures of Saint pricing from 2000 onward that meshes with what you said. I think I just brain-locked, sorry for the bad info, folks.

I know I have a datapoint or piece that talks about Saint pricing going down while the price of gold went up. That's what I was trying to reference. I'll look for it tonight.

Yeah, I find tracing prices on their site a bit difficult, maybe I'm doing it wrong. Again, I had the prices that meshed with what you wrote above -- I need to read my own posts, I guess.

 

OK, here's the correct quote....it was from John Albanese of CAC right around the time that CAC started up (2008):

"....in January 2000, gold traded at $280 per ounce. Recently, though it had risen to over $800 per ounce, during the same period the Grey Sheet bid for an MS 65 1922 $20 Saint fell from $3120 to $1650. Coin collectors and investors had been told that the best way to participate in a rise in the price of gold would be through rare gold coins, as they would increase in value by a greater percentage than gold bullion. This proved to be true with a number of especially rare gold coins, but not for the MS 65 1922 $20 Saint and a multitude of other coins."

I know the 1922 isn't considered as common as the 1924/27 commons, but it's not a rare year. I'm not sure why the price was that much more than what my charts and your post indicate other common Saints were selling for back in 2000. No hoards have come in for that year since 2000. But nonetheless, the premium got slaughtered.

Not sure if the price jumps a ton at MS-66 but on Ebay at least the price is all over the map for MS-65's, from $1,700 to $4,000 (sold coins !!). Others getting no bidding, maybe discerning buyers are counting bag marks or something:

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&ghostText=&_sacat=0&LH_Complete=1&_nkw=1922 saint ms-65&_sop=15

 

I apologize, but I wish you'd get some consistent reliable multiple references, and dis-continue making statements that are seemingly inaccurate.

You're talking about GEM grade premium coins as if they're to be acquired as bullion at "10% above spot".

Please check any reliable reference for relative SOLD pricing of coins before talking about a 1922 MS65 St. Gaudens as a "common coin", in the same vein as a 1924.

I and Doug have tried to post objective corrections, asking where you derive the basis for some of the statements, but you continue making BOLD believed inaccurate statements about a Type/Grade coin that it appears you desire, but can not afford.

If you want to irrationally complain about coins that relatively have high mintage, and even greater disproportionate pricing to the St. Gaudens, try discussing buying Carson City Morgan Dollars at "10% above spot".

I'm sorry, but as I've documented grading/pricing disparities with specific internet links, you continue to post unsupported statements.

You seemingly desire buying GEM quality, relatively low mintage St. Gaudens Gold coins at less than what you consider inflated prices. I've followed/acquired these coins for a looong time, and I believe you'll hardly find an example of a relatively better priced U.S. coin of the same era/mintage as the St. Gaudens Double Eagle.

JMHO

 

No I'm not....I'm just trying to show that when you are paying a huge premium to bullion for commons or semi-scarce years/mintages, there's downside risk if the premium dissipates.

I didn't say it was in the same conversation as the 1924 but I wouldn't say it's tough based on relative scarcity. Akers has it 48th and 40th in his difficulty index, for overall and high-grade.

No, I'm not talking about a coin I desire nor can't afford, I was just talking about a particular coin, not a super-scarce one, that went DOWN in price as gold went UP.

I simply misremembered the year, 1922 vs. 1924, along with the price. I corrected myself and found the entire quote from Albanese to illustrate my point.

There's no deceptive intent on my part.

I wasn't complaining IMRich, I was simply noting that in the past premiums can dissipate. I actually think in the aggregate there is LESS risk of this as the common premiums have come down (as have others).

I quoted Albanese, isn't that a supported statement ?

Again, you misconstrued my posts.

I'm simply trying to extrapolate from past pricing eras and seeing if there is upside/downside for the commons (using MS-65 as a guideline) and maybe for some other years.

Obviously, the huge premiums on purely numismatic coins such as the 1907 HRs or other more-difficult years/mintages trade in their own universe. I don't expect them to be influenced that much by the price of gold OR the premiums on MS-65 commons or even semi-commons.

I find the history of the premiums for MS-65 common Saints, MS-66/67 commons, and more scarce/purely numismatic years/mintages to be fascinating when looking back over 3-4 gold and coin cycles. And since most dealers I sea at coin shows and most LCSs concentrate on commons or near-commons, I think this is more relevant for most of us here than whether high-end coins will go up/down and affect Stacks Bowers, Heritage, and Legend.

 

Hi ksparrow,
will you tell us the grade of your beautiful 1910D saint?
I guess solid MS65

 

Thanks GD....I will give it a shot and report back.

 

Amateurs. Being older in age or having collected coins for decades does not mean that you have business skill as a dealer. They have lost sight of what it is they are doing - dealing (as in buying, selling, repeat; creating transactions) - and have let their passion turn them back into an investor/collector by holding out for higher prices.

 

Sounds reasonable....it's human nature to resist to the new environment, you see it now even with savvy oil companies who have been around a long time and still making decisions as if oil will go back to $80/bbl.

What may happen is that the folks who were reluctant to sell at $1,600/oz. and now are dead-set against selling at $1,150/oz....will in fact throw in the towel if gold breaks $1,000/oz. or heads anywhere near the 2008-09 lows. Perverse and contrary to sound investing principles, but it's what is likely to happen.

 

I hope this happens! If gold cracks $1000 in the next year, I'm going to consider my first double eagle purchase. If it drops to $800 any time in the next few years, I'll switch away from smaller coins and start concentrating more on gold type coins.

 

Only about 10% away right now...if the Fed starts hiking, that could depress gold quite a bit.

I've been watching the MS-65 generic commons like a hawk going back a few years, I am sure the price will drop but I suspect the premium will expand as the coins resist the decline 1-for-1.

My experience talking to friends and other collectors and investors/gold buyers is that as AGE and UHR buyers discovered classic Saints, they've taken to the series. MS-63s seems to be the sweet spot for them.

So there could be buying interest as we head lower on gold bullion or if premiums collapsed (though most of my friends are mostly tracking the price as per bullion).

 

Why thanks for the compliment. You and PCGS think alike (in this case): 65.

 

Looks high-end or the light is obscuring high mark wear and bag marks. I said MS-65 but thought it looked very good... MS-65+ or MS-66 wouldn't have surprised me.

 

Here is a second picture of this great coin to bring a little bit more ""flesh on the bones"" in this thread.

 

Rhein, I'm not a photog expert by any stretch but does your phone have anti-shake technology and/or are you holding it loosely by hand ?

If the anti-shake isn't on, turn it on. Also try and take the picture with your hands/arms braced against something solid, like the table that the coin is on.

The coin will be in razor-focus if the lettering "LIBERTY" is crystal clear. On the shot above it's a bit fuzzy.

I can see the luster on the coin and the lack of bag marks (though not their depth/intensity)...but strike and wear are tougher to see.

P.S. Take a few pictures in a row, too. I do that with my smartphone and delete the ones that aren't crystal-clear.

 

Thanks goldfinger for your help to optimize my photo skills. But I'm not a hero in making good pics......the following pics are the best I can do actually