Thread ATS about "rampant gradeflation"

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by ksparrow, Feb 15, 2015.

  1. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Didn't CAC want to separate the A-B-C coins that supposedly all got the same grade during The Bubble Years, esp. for more expensive coins and/or Double Eagles (Saints, Liberty) ?

    So it's just about eye appeal....luster ? Shine ? Nothing to do with any wear on high points or bag marks ?
     
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  3. JPeace$

    JPeace$ Coinaholic

    It's also for toning as well as coins that have some PL but don't meet the overall requirements. Maybe the obverse qualifies, but maybe the reverse doesn't meet it.
     
  4. Paul M.

    Paul M. Well-Known Member

    Just as a note, I find it interesting that Rick Snow's thread was deleted on CU but the other wasn't.
     
  5. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Who's RS and what was his thread about ?
     
  6. ksparrow

    ksparrow Coin Hoarder Supporter

    The thread consisted of an article Rick wrote about over- grading of mid grade 1877 IHC's, and how this has depressed the value of properly graded AU 50 1877 IHC's. There is a thread about this on the NGC forum with a link to the article itself which is actually pretty interesting reading. Rick is one of the top experts on flying eagle and Indian head cents and recently published a 2 volume definitive text on IHC varieties.
     
  7. ldhair

    ldhair Clean Supporter

    Rick has balls to have posted that thread. It was actually an article he wrote for the Longacre's Ledger. The ledger goes out to fly-inclub members.
     
  8. Kasia

    Kasia Got my learning hat on

    It was a good article
     
  9. ROLLJUNKIE

    ROLLJUNKIE Active Member

    I am not blaming the TPG's for inflating the overall value of coins. The problem, however, is the fact that inflation will not affect everyone the same in this hobby just as it doesn't affect everyone the same in an economy. An uneducated market place has a perceived value (from what they think is a trusted source) for what they are buying to which they won't realize their mistake until they go to sell.
     
  10. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    These 'bubble years" that you keep mentioning, what exactly are you referring to ? I can only assume the years when prices exploded in the coin market, am I correct in that ?

    The chart below shows when that happened.

    [​IMG]


    Now as you can see it was between '86 and '89 when it happened. PCGS first opened their doors for business in late 1986, NGC followed in 1987. Before that, neither company even existed. And no, it is not a coincidence that the prices exploded at the same time that the TPGs came into existence, but rather a direct result of them coming into existence. For it was their debut that caused Wall St. to get involved and create that bubble. This is documented fact. Of course you can see the result of the irrational exuberance I mentioned when the coin market fell off a cliff in 1989.

    Now CAC didn't even exist until 2007, so no they didn't have anything to do with that bubble. There was another smaller bubble though that began somewhat slowly in 2001, again related to Wall St. but indirectly this time, reached its peak in 2008, and then radically dropped again.

    [​IMG]


    So is this what you are talking about in regard to CAC ? If so, I don't think they had much to do with it for they had only been open about a year.
     
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  11. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Yes, GD....but I guess CACs own stated reason (on their web site and in interviews with John Albanese) is that so many coins got misgraded back then -- and in the years afterwards -- that you had a wide discrepancy in many popular coins, i.e., MS-65 common Saints.

    I'm not blaming CAC, I realize they were formed over a decade after most of the damage had been done. But I think this notion that there are A-B-C coins for virtually ALL YEARS of coins is a bit much.

    JMHO.
     
  12. rzage

    rzage What Goes Around Comes Around .

    I don't mind CAC at all , as there is a definite difference in a lot of series between grades , though they should have stuck with just 2 tiers of strong or weak for the grade . Since they include solid for the grade and high for the grade as being stickered and low for the grade , not stickered that's all they really do anyways . I find CAC useful when bidding on Heritage where I can't see the coin in hand . Another set of eyes so to say .
     
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  13. rzage

    rzage What Goes Around Comes Around .

    Sorry to steal the thread , but Kasia I miss your Learning Hat Cat . I smiled every time I looked at it . Guess I'll get used to your new one . But the other was as Dana Carvey said "Special" ;)
     
  14. rzage

    rzage What Goes Around Comes Around .

    Doc I couldn't find the NGC thread , do you have a link ?
     
  15. Kasia

    Kasia Got my learning hat on

    Just a thought (speculation, so maybe someone can confirm/deny this) after reading this and some of the PCGS board stuff, both now poofed and not poofed. Perhaps CAC coins don't get so much a "premium" on them, but are seen to be higher than the 'supposed' price for a coin in that grade (prices 'lowered' due to gradeflation bringing the prices down on all coins unseen in that grade (ie, AU sliders being slabbed at times as UNC but recognizing they have 'friction' on them, i.e, accepable' wear, or color on truly UNC coins to bump up a coin a notch or two, or even AU coins with market acceptable toning being graded as mid or higher UNC because allowing friction and toning/luster to override the actual wear noticed on the coin) simply by being a quality coin of that grade? So their price actually reflects what the price of that grade coin should be???

    But at least CAC is an acceptable 'allowance' for a better price for a coin in that grade.

    And market grading coins (like bumping up exceptional looking coins with toning, etc.) to an actual grade that it might sell for with a premium applied if it was a lower grade coin could be a reaction to the TPGs wanting to be able to put a price on each grade they do and not have extraneous features/likeability affect that pricing, because then they don't have to allow for that in seeing auction prices?

    Again, this is just being tossed out there for discussion. I can't say it is true or not, but these are things that might possibly be what is behind this, no?
     
  16. Kasia

    Kasia Got my learning hat on


    I liked my other one. I only changed this to show someone how to change the avatar. I think I miss that other one too, so back it goes.
     
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  17. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    You shouldn't, it's quite true. That has always been accepted as fact since long before the TPGs ever came along.

    In fact it's even worse than that when you consider how many coins are over-graded to begin with.
     
  18. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Am I correct that TECHNICAL GRADING is going by the book methodically....would be a tougher standard...but MARKET GRADING is taking into account other items that may make a coin more 'desirable' and thus more valuable and hence more deserving of being bumped up 1 or 2 notches.

    Am I correct or in the ballpark on this ?
     
  19. ROLLJUNKIE

    ROLLJUNKIE Active Member

    Nope, completely wrong. Technical grading is what people use when they buy coins and market grading is what people use when they sell them. :)
     
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  20. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Fair point, but I think if the photos are pretty good that most of the time there isn't much of a difference vs. examining it in person under ideal lighting conditions. As good as in person under proper lighting ? Of course not...but unless it's a super-high end coin where you have to look for tiny details, most of the time high-end photos are satisfactory.

    Even when they have done tests using actual graders who have the coins in front of them, they find that the pros come to different grades and have trouble ID'ing which coins are MS-65, 66, etc. when asked to choose.

    Agreed....while I can understand that the purists might look down to the TPGs, all-in-all, they do a good job and provide a useful service. That's why I think they are a big plus overall.

    My only quibble is that it means they need to maintain their standards of consistency when grading. NOBODY expects perfection, but they shouldn't be off by more than 1 grade for the most part....2 grades off should be very rare, especially for more common coins (i.e., Saints, Morgans).

    Agreed....what I find troubling is that nobody seems to agree on WHEN (or sometimes IF) the loose standards took place. I thought it happened during/after The Bubble years (1988-91), mostly the mid-1990's and lasted a few years, maybe up to a decade.

    Pros I have talked to have said that the presence of the internet in the late-1990's/early-2000's led to the inability to pass off overgraded coins or series that were notorious for being overgraded. Seems logical to me, look at how much information you can get from 1 hour reading this forum or just Googling a topic as opposed to trying to get that same information 20+ years ago (phone calls, Gray Sheet, going to a LCS or coin show, etc. -- tedious and slow and time-consuming).

    Bravo :cigar:.....unless this person is spending an hour on each coin and cataloging/listing every blemish/nick/scratch/ding he/she sees under a 5x lens, how can you make a 1/2 point grade differential ?

    MAYBE you can do it between MS-70's, 69's, and 68's where the amount of imperfections is alot lower. But to use it on MS-66's, 65's, and lower is....ridiculous.
     
  21. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    No. But you are far from alone in that thinking. Market grading has absolutely nothing to do with value, or with value affecting the grade in any way. But that's what most people "think" market grading is, and that is how most define it.

    In reality, technical grading is the grading system that was used prior to 1986. Market grading is the grading system that has been used since 1986.

    Their differences are simple, technical grading has no subjective grading criteria. It is based purely on the technical aspects of a coin by assessing the wear (if any) and the defects that occurred after it was struck. Market grading includes all of that plus subjective grading criteria such as quality of strike, quality of luster, and eye appeal.

    Nothing more needs to be said from that point on, neither technical grading nor market grading allow value, rarity, pedigree, type of coin to affect or change the grade of a coin in any way. What's more both technical grading and market grading do account for any and all "as struck" attributes and flaws to affect the grade of coin in both a positive and a negative manner.

    Now the positive attributes most people can understand, but it is the flaws that they do not understand. Things like die cracks, die chips, die scratches, planchet flaws, die polish lines, poor centering, all of these things and more - anything that is not part of the original design - are flaws, negative attributes that lower the grade of a coin. As an example of what I mean consider - you have two coins of the same denomination, type and series. Both are equal in every way and respect except for one thing - 1 has die cracks, 2 does not. So ask yourself, how can those two coins possibly be graded the same ? The die cracks are not supposed to be there, they are flaws because the die has suffered damage due to excessive die wear. So they must be accounted for as a negative. And no they cannot be ignored or treated as if they do not matter.

    The problem with all of this is that the TPGs do not employ market grading, but rather they employ their own individual grading standards, and each quite different from each of the others. And they do ignore all, or most anyway, of the flaws mentioned above and treat them as if they were not even there when grading a coin. And they do allow things like rarity, value, and pedigree, to affect the grade of a coin in a positive manner. The TPGs use a completely different grading system, it is not technical grading nor market grading. For lack of another word I call the TPG grading system Value Grading because it is in no way either of the others.
     
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