High-Quality Morgans: Why So Expensive ?

Thanks, MD, yeah I know about how inaccurate the Red Book can be. I just thought it would be 'off' as much on the high-grades as the low-ones. I'm having trouble linearly interpolating prices as I seem to be able to do with the Saint-Gaudens, where I have more experience.

Question: I am seeing lots of MS-63 MSDs 1884-CC (Red Book = $250) going mostly for $175 - $200 on Ebay. Even GSAs at $190 - $220. MS-64's (Red Book = $270) going for under RB price, too.

But the price takes a quantum jump at the MS-65 level to a premium to the RB listed $475.

Is this a new phenomenon or is it normal ?

 

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For very common years, how much do you guys pay for MS-65 ? MS-66 ? MS-67 ?

Price guides I have usually stop at MS-63 or MS-65 and I know that's about where the price can really take off.

 

My LCS is asking $450 for a GSA common (not sure if he's flexible) in MS-63......also has a PCGS MS-66 for $700 and an MS-67 for $1,200....going there soon, expert opinions welcome.

 

What dates and mint marks are you looking at? When you say "high quality" that implies high grade and not necessarily better dates. Common dates are very cheap (relatively speaking) even in grades as high as MS67. Even MS68 examples will only set you back a few grand which is amazing given how these coins were stored (in canvas bags).

 

Yes CC.....looking at most common dates with lots of supply up to and beyond MS-65.

For me, was hoping that even 65 -67s in the most plentiful would be much less than Saints, my true passion. So paying thousands for an MS-68 kinda defeats the purpose.

Check out what my LCS quoted me above....I was hoping the GSA in 65 would be 20-30% less.....MSD commons MS-66 and 67 I thought would be 30-50% less.

I guess what surprised me is the DEGREE of the parabolic rise for the GSA and the super high grades, given the supply. I thought it would be more gradual.....has it always been this steep, percentage wise (for Saints it has ) ?

 

You really can't use the "Redbook" for realistic prices now,look at Heritage/Great Collections current sales for accurate ones...

 

I am and I do.

I am just using the Red Book to gauge the 'takeoff' point where the price increase goes parabolic.

I guess I am just surprised by the bump when you hit -- what do you call it ? -- the "Condition Rarity Inflection Point" and the price jumps over 100% per grade, sometimes 200 - 500%.

 

I see your point, GD.

I'm used to expecting the rate of increase to be linear and clearly it isn't once you hit the stratospheric grades.

BTW, aren't those numbers you gave likely inflated by re-submissions to the grading services ?

 

Ive got about 200 Morgans-some I got as low as $5-not saying how but I did-
Sometimes people do stupid things to get what they have to have!!

 

Congrats, are they slabbed/rated or just well-worn commons ? Many of those can be gotten for close to bullion and were under $10 a coin some years ago.

 

I would be careful about relying on population report data as it is heavily skewed due to resubmissions and crack outs, but I agree that many of these coins are not rare at all.

 

Another way to put it, you mix the 7 MS68s with the 300 MS67s and give that pile to any grader who hasn't seen the coins before and they're not going to be able to pick out the 7 MS68s.

 

My one high quality graded Morgan is an 1884 CC GSA coin graded MS64. I bought it on Christmas day via "make offer" on eBay for $256 delivered, which was a good price, but no mega bargain. It is my most valuable non-gold coin and I'm happy with it. For me, not a Morgan collector specifically, the jump to MS65 and above was more that I was willing/able to spend.


(sellers pic...can't lay my mouse on my own pics right now for some reason)

Rob

 

Am I the only person who wonders what the value of these population reports is for any condition-rarity or high-grade coin ?

I guess the MS-61 to MS-63 numbers are probably legit because the resubmissions for commons are probably low....but MS-65 and above ? Or low-MS's for coins that are much scarcer ?

If that PR-69 $4 MM Extra High Relief Saint-Gaudens got cracked out 10 times by a future owner hoping to score a 70, would the population report go from 3 or 4 to the teens ? What good is that ?

 

Agreed...probably if you say "Pick the Best 7" he/she would probably pick up at least 3 or 4 of the 7.

Which is why I wonder about the "+" and "*" category...to me, that was more appropriate decades ago when the number increments didn't go up by "1" at certain intervals.

 

Rob, that's a nice one....I have an ungraded one I showed here that is probably MS-63. Think I paid just under $200 or so.

 

On very scarce or rare pieces it can give you an idea of what is out there (but tends to err on the high side for some issues that are targets for crack out operations). For instance, I collect designated cameo Liberty Walking Half Dollars. PCGS and NGC have only certified 17 of these for the entire series. Given that these are worth large premiums, I would argue that virtually all of them are certified. So I can say that there are approximately 17 at most out there, with the possibility that there are fewer. This tells me a lot about how difficult these are to find and why these do not trade hands very often.

 

So it's a WORST case total, right ? But you don't know or can't tell if the number is off by 50% or 500%, right ?