The lowest mintage war nickel is the 1943 D at 15.24 million, while the highest is the 1943 P at 271.165 million. Yet, there is virtually little to no price difference. According to the Red Book, MS-65 is at $20 for each of them. eBay also reveals similar prices between the two coins. Why is it that rarity doesn't seem to factor in here? Did they melt down a lot of the '43 P's? Shouldn't the relative (and probably the absolute) scarcity cause the '43 D's price to be much higher than it is? Is it just the general lack of interest in nickels over other denominations, therefore low overall and specific demand? Aside: The war nickel in general has 78% of the silver in silver dimes, but less annoyingly small (at least to me; I prefer the heft of the bigger nickels). Even when compared to silver dimes, there are far less silver nickels produced. The 1943 D Mercury dime has a mintage of 71.149 million and demands a Red Book MS-65 valuation of $30. Not to mention, I believe that the 1942 P war nickel was the first coin to have the P mint mark of any coin produced. It seems like war nickels are underrated, as reflected by their numismatic prices. What am I missing here?
15.24 million is not scarce! There are plenty of Morgan dollars with similar mintages. Do you think their listed values should be multiplied by a factor of 20 times the value of the 43-D? Chris
There are plenty of mid to high grade war nickels that were saved in sets, so the actual survival is nearly identical for all of the dates and mint marks.
15 million does sound like a lot in general, but over a quarter billion is a lot more. If mintage is in the 10+ million, then does relative scarcity have a low factor on numismatic price? In other words, does 10+ million mean moderately to easily available, so all war nickel years are lumped into the same rarity level? Just trying to gauge where mintage numbers fall on the rarity meter.
For the same reason the third rarest Lincoln does not command a premium. So you think the 1924-D commands a premium? But the fourth rarest is not the 1924-D. Both the 2012-S and 2013-S are rarer at 1.237M versus 2.520M and are nearly the same as the 1914-D. If you want to get technical, all of the 2009 copper (satin) Lincolns are rarer than the 14-D (and even the 1931-S) at only 786,614. But even that number is way more than there are Lincoln collectors. So if everyone has one, there is no or little demand.
oh ok so the vast majority of legal tender coins are widely available, therefore, not really that rare. Whereas, a lot of the older coins from the pre-20th century are probably destroyed or badly worn out so there's a lot less of them in decent condition. For some reason, I was thinking that 15 million was such a small number in circulation... probably because I have yet to find a 1943 D war nickel while doing CRH, yet I have all the others in the series.
In today's market, what is considered the upper threshold of low mintage? Moderate? I'm sure these numbers will change as the population grows, more collectors enter the market, etc, but all else constant, is there a rule of thumb?
Right you are - many circulated specimens to be bought for cheap. Even slabbed high MS grades are inexpensive except for the 43-P DD obverse and 43/2-P.
I think the key to this is your use of the word "circulation". These nickels were produced with the original intent of melting them down at the end of the war. The large mintmark over the dome would have made them easily identifiable. What the government didn't realize is that these coins became popular almost overnight to both collectors and non-collectors alike. As a result, many of them were hoarded in uncirculated condition. Chris
I disagree. When you look at pcgs pop reports you see that while there were similar mintages survival rates are markedly different. There are roughly under 9000 total 14-d cents mainly in circulated grades. Compare this to your survival rates for your 2012s and 2013s. I would be shocked if survival was under 99%. So there are literally millions of these in perfect condition compared to what maybe 3-4x the pcgs pop of the 14d? This is the classic modern coin collectors problem. The see mintage rates not survival rates. Then they buy graded proofs and poof their goes their money.
I mean that was exactly the point of my post. The survival rates are obviously wildly different, but that does not change their mintages so I have no idea what you are disagreeing with.
