I'm watching the Heritage Auction live in Houston right now. I like watching and dreaming of all the things I could get. And, I like having an idea on the state of the market. Anyone watching? What is standing out to you?
I watched the entire Houston show... lots of coins sold at below value... however there were some nice gems in there! I love territorials so the US Assay ms64 was the cats meow for me... would have been sick to see a SSCA pedigree on it... but that wouldve valued it at over $500k if not Millions. the 1870cc $20 was a nice coin... I have a friend just acquired a $5 and $10 a 1870cc. fun stuff!
I will be watching this weekend as I have my eye on a coin. Even when I'm not planning to buy, I'll watch coins in a series I'm studying to get market pricing information. The hardest thing is to sit idly by as you see a potential deal on the block.
Watching auctions is fine for establishing a general feel for where the market is going, but one must be very careful about drawing conclusions from sale prices without having examined the coins in person. I have seen far too many coins in prominent auctions which had me drooling on the catalogues, only to leave me very disappointed in person. In fact, I usually end upcompletely replacing my initial target lists before the auctions start. This has been especially true with one auction house in particular.
I agree. I think Heritage does a nice job with their auction pictures. They also have huge blow ups that allow you to see most blemishes. As for Stack's and Legend, you do have to more careful.
Sorry . . . unlike declaring a fake coin a forgery, which is an absolute, black vs white distinction, my expression above is a matter of opinion, so I must be careful not to disparage an auction house. If you care to find out more, I'm sure you can find someone else who is willing to shed more light on the same subject matter. - Mike
I dont think you are disparaging an auction house by pointing out certain things... maybe others feel the same way... maybe the auction house could get better business/reputation if it gets out so that they can fix it... peoples views play a big role in how a business is run. just my opinion... you call a black cat a black cat right... even if its white!
It's even better to actually go to the auction and more importantly go to lot viewing. Then you get to see all of the coins in hand and dream. It's fun flipping through box after box of coins that are worth more than most cars and some worth more than some houses! Seeing so many coins of the same type together really teaches you a lot about grading standards and really helps you learn to grade as well. As far as watching auctions to see how the market is doing, I think they are a good estimate of the market... but what you see in auctions is probably somewhere between the wholesale market and the retail market. There are so many coins in these big auctions and they are only marketed for a few weeks to maybe a couple of months at the most. Also, not that many people are able to actually attend and view the coins in hand. Accordingly, many coins slip through the cracks and sell below their real retail value. That's why many dealers get most of their inventory from these big auctions and then later mark them up to their real retail value (or at least what they think the retail value is).
Illini - I only get to one major show a year (the winter FUN show). Lot viewing there is definitely one of the highlights of my trip!
Many high grade coins are dropping in price. Maybe it is just the ones I am watching, but I have been seeing high grade, low population coins sell for much less then what they were selling for just a couple years ago. I buy for collecting, not investing, so I don't care what happens to the price from here. If I can get a coin with less then 10 graded higher for wholesale (usually 30-40% off guide) I buy it. Maybe they will continue to drop as a lot of inventory hits the market of the next 5-10 years.
I agree that prices seem to be coming down. In my opinion (as a buyer and a collector) that is a good thing. They've been pretty hot for a few years now.
