Ancient & World Coins - future volatility in price be minimized?

You've got a magnificent collection, Zohar. Discussions of value and investment rather bore me, so I tend to stay out of them. There is no denying, however, that you've put together a set of coins that will always be in demand by discriminating collectors.

 

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I think it's been said before and by a number of members - that's a really fantastic collection you've built, and you should be rightfully proud of it.

I'm not sure if you've shown the Juba I here before, but it's jaw dropping and one I'd love to have.

 

the internet is wonderful as it gives all of us the opportunity to pass our opinions in our great hobby

jeff

 

Dear Jeff,

BTW, which of the two coins would you recommend from point of the investment?

Greetings,

Matthias

Pius sestertius, 7'000 EUR
+: very good portrait depicting an elder statesman
+: well-known emperor
-: quite frequent type, boring reverse
-: maybe, there are better Pius sestertii



Hostilian sestertius, 4'000 EUR
+: very rare
+: not totally perfect but better than the one in the British museum
-: infant prince
-: typical third century short hairstyle

 

Hey, I'm not Jeff, but I'm gonna toss-in my two cents (hopefully that's okay?) ...

Wow!! => both of those babies are absolutely gorgeous!! (buy 'em both!!)



Ummm? ... although that Hostilian coin is amazing (he really does have sweet hair, and admittedly the ruler is less frequently seen => number 127 on the rarity list!!) => that AP coin "rocks" (I love the dark burgundy surfaces on that coin!!) ... it is uber-cool ...

However, I'm gonna bet that the Hostilian would probably get the feeding-frenzy bid (but as always => it really only depends upon whether at least two dudes show-up wanting the same coin!!)

... hmmm, that is a fantastic pose-down ...

 

I'm not Jeff so I will keep my preference to myself but researching this turned up an example of something worth keeping in mind if profit is your motive.
Compare:
http://www.acsearch.info/search.html?id=1937720 2014
and
http://www.acsearch.info/search.html?id=1265280 2012

Same coin - very different photo. Is it just the photo or was it washed accounting for the .01g weight loss? Different scales would account for that much so I'd say it was the collector rather than the coin that took a bath.

Also compare (different reverse)
http://www.acsearch.info/search.html?id=758780 2010
and
http://www.acsearch.info/search.html?id=207725 2005

Again they are the same coin. There was a profit here unless the fees ate it up??? It seems there are several of these rare coins (just as there are several of the Pius?) but few have the full hair detail. The question is how much hair offsets edge splits? My opinion on this means nothing since I don't buy coins in this league. The question is whether there are two real bidders who agree with which coin is the winner.

Hint: When selling coins, select a dealer who knows how to photograph coins.

Also, I can't resist showing THE coins of the family:
http://www.acsearch.info/search.html?id=1757531
http://www.acsearch.info/search.html?id=2176888

There were no doubles for the kids.

 

I support that.

 

I am really curious where I can find the rarity list.

 

=> ERIC II has a "Comparitive Rarity List", which was created from a large sampling of coins from auctions, ebay, etc (hey, it's certainly not 100% => it merely gives us a sound data point)

=> here is an old thread of mine that has the ERIC II list ...

https://www.cointalk.com/threads/ancient-eric-iis-comparative-rarity-table.245165/#post-1897331

 

Thanks a lot, great Job!
That is very interesting, I will keep on studying this.

 

The ERIC II list has two situations to remember in its use. First, it only counts Imperial coins so people get incorrectly excited when they get a Provincial coin of someone like Tranquillina who is common in that format but rare from Rome. Second it assumes that all coins are one sided and no one care about reverses so the most rare coin of Constantine is still #1 most common on the list. There are a few traps in terms of popularity as well. Carausius is popular in the UK and many of his low grade (really ugly) coins are offered while Carus and family are common but no one (relatively) cares so high grade ones are easy to find. All this kept in mind, it is a good effort for a list.

 

100% Doug

=> it is merely one data point .... it would be great if more similar surveys were periodically preformed and combined to form a more reliable database