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Dear Doug, Dear John,

I like your explanations very much. Based on Doug's example of this double portrait provincial bronze, one can clearly demonstrate that ancient coin prices are not rationally explicable.

Greetings,

Marc

P.S.: If something special like a temple was depicted on the reverse and the coin was on-center, I would be willing to pay a much higher price. The mirror like surfaces, which are rounded by a portrait of perfect Roman style on flan larger than that of a denarius, would lead me to forget that I can only read Latin letters...

 

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You may have discovered that we are an odd bunch here at CT. None of us would denigrate the importance of researching the market value of the coins that interest us, but for the most part, we are far more interested in the numismatic and historical aspects of the coins we collect. Eye-appeal is secondary, if not less.

Even AJ, who can afford to buy the most spectacular coins on the market, is clearly and obviously interested foremost in the numismatic appeal of his acquisitions. Does this hold true for collectors of ancients in general? I don't know, but if it does, that might explain the inexplicable nature of ancient coin prices. Everybody has their own niche, and that's completely unpredictable. It's a very different world from that of moderns, where collectors pursue rarity and grade to the point of obsession and fisticuffs.

 

=> *awkward*

... yah JA, I totally agree that the fact we are all collecting ancient Greek and Roman coins is because we are interested in the numismatic history of our sweet coins ... and I'm fairly sure that none of us are planning on melting-down our coins and selling them for their metal value? (man, I would lose a whole lotta cash melting-down those wee little silver obols!!)

... but ummm, I really do actually enjoy the "eye-appeal" of the coins that I buy

stevex6 (Shallow Hal)

 

Yeah, but you're as unpredictable as the rest of us, even more so, actually. You can trust me to buy a bunch of scraggly Nabataeans, but who knows what the hell you're going to buy next.

 

*Random Mayhem*

... and lovin' it!!

 

PT Barnum said it best "There's a sucker born every minute,sometimes two" Guess none of these heard of Bernie Madoff,eh?...

 

Earlier I gave a link to a page offering proof "one can clearly demonstrate that ancient coin prices are not rationally explicable." I completely agree but would certainly prefer owning the only example of that Albinus provincial than the shiny Trajan.

Predicting what Steve will do next is part of the fun here at CT Ancients. After all his posts bear the tag,"Ummm, I apologize for what I'm about to say ..." Steve operates in a different league than I do and I know that were he required to risk big trouble with the Mrs., he would get #3 and if he were willing really, really to have trouble explaining himself to her (and to several of us), perhaps also #7.

Rarity is one thing and like rare coins but rarity added to exceptionally interesting types like both of these $4k+ Provincials really outranks mint state coins of types we have seen with some regularity. I do wonder how much of a price bump either of the $4k+ coins would get if they were higher grade or if it might not make much of a difference since the number of interested people in that market would not change a lot between F and EF. It is not a significant question since the chance of finding a pot full of mint state ones is slim. Big silvers were hoarded in pots much more frequently than bronzes that were spent on a daily basis.

 

What I wonder with the rarest provincials is what makes a $4k coin a $4k coin to begin with. This is particularly the case for those that are so rare one doesn't even have a historic sale record to reference. Why not $500 or $2000 or $8000? You can say that its price is what the collector is willing to pay and what he or she can afford, but I think they'd feel at least a little annoyed (if not cheated) if another example of the coin they paid $4k for came up for auction a short time later and sold for $500.

In some cases even if the coin has shown up in a sale before, it may not help in the determination of a 'fair' value. This example of #3 didn't sell for USD 550 before fees in 2012. It's in a lower grade and has some pitting, but compared to the $4400, was it a steal, fairly priced, or overpriced? Who can say... they seem to be the only two that I can find any record for at all and neither have a final price.

And just as an aside, if #7 was $4500 on a Septimius Severus coin, how much do you reckon it would be on an Elagabalus ?

 

I have no magic solution

Most individuals who write on a forum, blog or whatever take the time as they would like their view to be read and understood.

Our passion is ‘coin collecting’. Are we able to rational – maybe not?

We can then look to stocks, shares, bonds is the pricing rational? There are so many variants and tools, more and more creative financial tools used in the capitalist environment. One of the most volatile is the creation and printing of money “*FIAT MONEY”.

I look it very simply – if we had 10 years ago 1b $ in circulation and today we have 4b $ the value of the $ in your pocket is 25c. We just lost 75% of the value of our money.

[we feel richer, it is a balloon of illusions & 'smoke and mirrors' we are waiting for shares and economic tools to give us a high return but it appear we are no longer getting the desired results and now fighting to stop ‘stagnation and deflation’]

Land – Houses they are not very portable and you are still reliant on the economy which since we left the ‘gold standard’ has not been stable.

* ’FIAT’ Definition

Money which has no intrinsic value and cannot be redeemed for specie or any commodity, but is made legal tender through government decree. All modern paper currencies are fiat money, as are most modern coins. The value of fiat money depends on the strength of the issuing country's economy. Inflation results when a government issues too much fiat money.

 

Dear Jeff,

Of course, due to the financial crisis, the money in circulation increased dramatically and the prices for immovable properties in Germany rose markedly but I am still waiting for the big inflation - there's life in the old dog yet.

I want to give a good example that depicts that one can should regard ancient coins' prices as "white noise" that is heavily depending on the advertising for a specific coin. This Nerva sestertius, whose condition I believe to be honest and nice but not perfect, was sold at Spink 2006 for 5875 USD + fee.

http://www.acsearch.info/search.html?id=325032

The coin remained for a couple of years in the stock of a Vcoins dealer. As far as I remember, his price request was more than 10'000 USD. Eventually, eight years later in January this year, the identical coin was offered as an "also ran" lot at Heritage and sold at 425 USD (sic!) + fee.

http://www.acsearch.info/search.html?id=1914461

Well, the funny thing about that is that even though one is comparing the price development of one and the same coin, one is comparing her actually apples with pears. One always has to consider under what circumstances a coin is marketed since this might be the decisive factor.

Regarding this extreme negative example, one might be tempted to claim that ancient coins are unsuitable as investment because the price actually fetched is too much dependent on the promotion.

Greetings,

Marc

 

Wow, that is dramatic!

 

Maybe, as a "lesson learned", one should clearly instruct one's spouse to go with the inherited coins to the right auction house specialized in the fields of your specific coins. The risk of losing a fortune is otherwise definitely existing.

 

An instructive example!

 

I want to quote here something very good that Valentinian posted in similar tread where we discussed about prices with focus on the bronzes. Valentinian carreid out a very accurate good analysis